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The week-to-week grind of CFB DFS gets a bit more challenging when conference play begins. Opponents have years’ worth of familiarity with one another, and teams tend to rise to the occasion in bitter rivalry matchups. From a DFS perspective, this is also the time of year when sites seem to tighten up their prices, offering less-exploitable opportunities in these matchups.
Last week’s slate featured some conference games that offered up some interesting performances. Some might even call them disappointing -- at least from my perspective.
Here’s a look at my plays from last week.
Perhaps the most disappointing play of the weekend was Maryland running back Roman Hemby. Hemby entered Saturday’s game against Michigan State as the Terps’ lead back, rushing for 47-341-3 through four games, while Antwain Littleton II (21-148-5) appeared to be a distant second in Maryland’s backfield.
Naturally, it was Littleton -- a 285-pound running back -- who led the Terps in touches against Michigan State. The redshirt freshman rushed 19 times for 120 yards and a touchdown while adding three receptions for another 27 yards. Hemby managed just nine carries for 27 yards. It was great.
Now picking up the pieces of my pride and everything I knew to be true, we are on to Week 6.
With some exciting games on this week’s slate, it’s time to rebound from a #DownBad week.
Note: All stats and info courtesy of CollegeFootballData.com, PFF.com, and Sports-Reference.com.
The Play Rates
Team | Rush Rate | Pass Rate |
Arizona State | 43.1% | 56.9% |
Arkansas | 64.5% | 35.3% |
Auburn | 54.8% | 43.9% |
Florida | 52.1% | 46.4% |
Georgia | 43.1% | 56.9% |
Indiana | 35.5% | 63.5% |
Kansas | 58.6% | 41.4% |
LSU | 47.6% | 52.4% |
Maryland | 46.4% | 53.2% |
Michigan | 57.5% | 42.5% |
Michigan State | 41.1% | 57.4% |
Mississippi State | 31.2% | 68.2% |
Missouri | 48.2% | 49.1% |
Northwestern | 44.2% | 54.1% |
Ohio State | 51.0% | 49.0% |
Oklahoma | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Oklahoma State | 49.6% | 50.4% |
Ole Miss | 62.6% | 37.1% |
Purdue | 36.7% | 62.1% |
TCU | 46.0% | 54.0% |
Tennessee | 50.0% | 50.0% |
Texas | 45.0% | 54.5% |
Texas Tech | 38.1% | 61.1% |
UCLA | 47.5% | 51.8% |
Utah | 52.0% | 48.0% |
Vanderbilt | 56.6% | 43.4% |
Washington | 39.5% | 59.9% |
Wisconsin | 57.7% | 39.4% |
Quarterback Rush Attempts
player | Team | Attempts | Yards | Touchdowns |
Arizona State | 16 | 115 | 4 | |
Arkansas | 57 | 358 | 4 | |
Auburn | 29 | 267 | 1 | |
Auburn | 3 | 68 | 1 | |
Florida | 30 | 242 | 5 | |
Georgia | 14 | 75 | 4 | |
Indiana | 12 | 37 | 0 | |
Kansas | 43 | 328 | 5 | |
LSU | 15 | 384 | 3 | |
LSU | 3 | -5 | 0 | |
Maryland | 14 | 110 | 1 | |
Michigan State | 10 | 104 | 0 | |
Michigan | 14 | 98 | 1 | |
Mississippi State | 2 | -1 | 0 | |
Missouri | 19 | 196 | 2 | |
Northwestern | 18 | 7 | 2 | |
Ohio State | 9 | 7 | 0 | |
Oklahoma State | 31 | 193 | 4 | |
Oklahoma | 11 | 158 | 2 | |
Ole Miss | 31 | 247 | 0 | |
Purdue | 0 | 20 | 0 | |
TCU | 16 | 193 | 2 | |
Tennessee | 16 | 227 | 3 | |
Texas | 3 | 106 | 0 | |
Texas Tech | 34 | 195 | 4 | |
UCLA | 17 | 247 | 3 | |
Utah | 11 | 218 | 1 | |
Vanderbilt | 20 | 272 | 4 | |
Vanderbilt | 8 | 1 | 0 | |
Washington | 10 | 49 | 0 | |
Wisconsin | 3 | 39 | 1 |
Mispriced Player of the Week
Dominic Lovett, WR (Missouri)
DraftKings Price: $3,800
Missouri put Georgia on upset alert last week as the Tigers managed to hang 22 points on the No. 1 team in the nation. Quarterback Brady Cook threw for 192 yards and one touchdown, with Dominic Lovett operating as his top receiver.
This isn’t new for Lovett, who has 27 receptions for 456 yards and two touchdowns on the season. Operating primarily from the slot (85.8% slot rate), Lovett’s 37 targets lead all Missouri receivers -- as does his 16.9 YPR.
Among receivers on this weekend’s slate, Lovett looks like one of the most efficient. In addition to his raw numbers and solid YPR, Lovett ranks third on the slate in Y/RR (3.71) and is 30th in YAC/REC (7.3).
Lovett has totaled 66 yards or more in each of his first five games and is averaging 18.3 points per game on DraftKings. His $3,800 price point looks like a major bargain on the weekend and should open us up for a lot of roster flexibility.
Aidan O’Connell, QB (Purdue)
DraftKings Price: $6,000
Minnesota put the clamps on Aidan O’Connell and the Boilermakers for 60 minutes last weekend, as O’Connell was limited to 199 yards and no touchdowns on the day while throwing two interceptions. A high-flying offense that was averaging 38.7 points per game heading into Week 5 is now looking to bounce back this weekend against Maryland in a game that’s currently carrying an over/under of 61 points.
Purdue is throwing at a 62.1% rate on the season -- the third-highest rate of any team on the slate. O’Connell, who has thrown for 1,199 yards, eight touchdowns and three interceptions is averaging a career-high 9.2 ADOT and has attempted 40 or more passes in three of four games on the season.
Playing in a potential shootout against a Maryland team that’s averaging 35 points per game, Purdue won’t be dialing back their passing in this one.
His top target, Charlie Jones is the eighth-highest priced receiver on the slate ($7,000) but is averaging 31.2 points per game while leading all receivers on the slate in receptions (47), yards (588) and touchdowns (7). O’Connell is the 25th highest-priced quarterback on the slate.
Correlating with Maryland could get a bit pricey, but it can be done. Taulia Tagovailoa is priced at $6,700 on the weekend, while his highest-priced receiver, Rakim Jarrett, is coming in at $5,700. If you’re intrigued by Antwain Littleton, he’s coming in at $3,600 but is facing a Purdue defense that’s allowing a 33.3% success rate on rushing plays.
Quinn Ewers, QB (Texas)
DraftKings Price: $6,500
Approach this one with caution, as Quinn Ewers has yet to play since Week 2 when he suffered a clavicle sprain against Alabama. If Ewers is unable to go, you can pivot to Hudson Card ($7,600) if you hope to get in on the Red Rivers Showdown.
There’s legitimate hope that Ewers will make his return against Oklahoma. He’s already returned to practice for the Longhorns, and rumors have circulated that he’s been eying this week as his return.
The No. 1 overall recruit from the 2021 class was off to a hot start before going down, completing 25-of-36 passes for 359 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Before being knocked from the game against Alabama, Ewers was 9-of-12 passing for 134 yards, averaging an impressive 11.2 YPA -- this all came in the first quarter.
It was a limited sample size against legitimate competition, but there’s reason to believe that Ewers could be in for a big day against Oklahoma if active. The Sooners are allowing a 42.2% success rate against the pass and are fresh off a 55-24 thrashing by TCU. Oklahoma lost 41-34 against Kansas State in the previous week.
If you roll with Ewers (or Card), wide receiver Xavier Worthy ($6,300) looks like a fun stack after last week’s breakout (7-119-2) against West Virginia. Worthy leads the Longhorns in targets and is averaging a 20.0 ADOT -- the best of any receiver on the slate.
Quinshon Judkins, RB (Ole Miss)
DraftKings Price: $6,400
Ole Miss running back Zach Evans exited Week 4 against Tulsa with an undisclosed injury, but returned for Week 5 against Kentucky. Despite being active last week, Evans managed just nine carries for 24 yards and a touchdown, while Quinson Judkins erupted for 15-106-1
Even if Evans does see more run this week against Vanderbilt, I think Judkins is a safe play at $6,400. Judkins has split carries with Evans all season long, and hasn’t seen fewer than 10 carries in any game.
Judkins has been a force for the Rebels this season, rushing for 86-535-6 while averaging 6.2 YPC. He ranks third in the nation in missed tackles forced (35) and ranks 11th in the nation in yards after contact (314).
Vanderbilt is allowing a 41% success rate on rushing plays and enters this weekend as 19-point underdogs. Ole Miss is the second-most run-heavy team on the slate and should look to feed both backs in a game that will feature a very positive game script.
Kendre Miller, RB (TCU)
DraftKings Price: $6,000
Kendre Miller was one of my favorite players last week against Oklahoma. He rewarded my faith with a 29.9-point day over on DraftKings, totaling 139 yards and two touchdowns on the afternoon in a 55-point day for the Horned Frogs.
In a battle of two undefeated teams, Miller will need a big performance against the Jayhawks if TCU hopes to knock off 5-0 Kansas.
To date, Miller has rushed for 51-386-5. His 7.6 YPC ranks second among all running backs on the slate, while his 20 missed tackles forced ranks 12th. He’s gone for 25.2 and 29.9 fantasy points in each of his last two weeks and is averaging 20.5 points per game. On a 28-team slate, Miller is priced as the 22nd most expensive back, and is playing in a game whose over/under is sitting at 67.5.
Stacking Miller with quarterback Max Duggan ($7,200), last week’s QB1 (53.68 points) looks like an excellent play as well. Duggan is another one of my favorite plays on the weekend, and for good reason. The TCU signal-caller has thrown for 997-11-0 on the year and shown a propensity to run with a line of 19-193-2.
Jalen McMillan, WR (Washington)
DraftKings Price: $6,200
Washington’s high-octane offense is off to a 4-1 start thanks in part to transfer quarterback Michael Penix ($8,500). Penix has thrown for an impressive 1,733-16-3 to start the season, completing 65.4% of his passes while averaging 9.0 YPA.
The beneficiary of Penix’s early success has been Jalen McMillan, who has gone for 27-428-4 while leading the team with 42 targets. McMillian is a safe slot option (95.9% slot rate) against an Arizona State defense that’s allowing a 53.5% success rate against the pass -- good for 128th in the nation.
Washington’s 59.9% pass rate should offer plenty of opportunities for points against Arizona State. Penix has thrown 37+ times in four of five games on the season and has three four-touchdown games to his name.
If you want a boom or bust play in this one, wide receiver Ja’Lynn Polk has an 18.7 ADOT and went for 6-153-3 against Michigan State in Week 3. Polk is coming in at $4,500 on the slate, but has managed just 8-118-1 in his other four games.
This is a tough one to correlate with Arizona State struggling offensively, but they’ve faced three stout defenses in Oklahoma State, Utah and USC. Quarterback Emory Jones ($7,400) could offer some rushing upside. The Huskies have proven somewhat susceptible against the pass and are allowing 233 yards and two touchdowns per game through the air.
Emeka Egbuka, WR (Ohio State)
DraftKings Price: $6,700
The loss of Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t slowed the Buckeyes thus far. Sitting at 5-0, quarterback C.J. Stroud has thrown for 1,372-18-2 while funneling passes to Marvin Harrison Jr. (24-405-6) and Emeka Egbuka (30-512-5). The two receivers have combined for 56.6% of Ohio State’s targets and should torch a struggling Michigan State defense.
Sparty ranks 119th in defensive success rate against the pass (49.4%) and ranks 115th in passing yards allowed per game (275.0). Despite leading the Buckeyes in receiving on the year, Egbuka is priced lower than Harrison Jr. ($7,400) and is the 12th-highest priced receiver on the slate. From a points-per-game perspective, he’s the WR2 on the weekend.
The Buckeyes are 24.5-point road favorites in this one, but even in blowout wins, Egbuka has produced. His worst game of the season was last weekend against Rutgers, but he was averaging 110.5 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game through the first four weeks. He leads all receivers on the slate with 4.00 Y/RR and is 14th in YAC/REC (8.8).
Egbuka will need a 20-point performance to pay off at his $6,700 price this weekend but had gone for 24+ points in each of his first four games to start the season. I love him this Saturday against a struggling Spartan defense.