Oregon (-17 1/2) CALIFORNIA
Analysis: Technically, this isn’t a true home game for the Bears, as its being played at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara. Oregon is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 as a road favorite, and Cal is 7-18 ATS in its last 25 as a home ‘dog (2-8 in-conference in its last 10 ATS), but I’m going to step in front of the bullet anyway. The Ducks’ defense has played well enough against conventional schemes -- Michigan State, UCLA and Washington -- but has been given fits by the spread systems employed by Washington State and Arizona. The Bears, always a terrifying backdoor cover possibility when getting this many points, should light up the scoreboard enough to stay within this number.
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Mississippi (-3 1/2) LSU
Analysis: The Tigers have played far better in recent weeks as their first and second-year players have acclimated themselves to the bright lights of SEC competition, but I haven’t seen enough to feel comfortable taking the home ‘dog against the nation’s best defense. Mississippi’s pass rush figures to overwhelm LSU QB Anthony Jennings, making true frosh RB Leonard Fournette the Tigers’ best chance of moving the ball. Did I mention the Rebs are elite versus the run, too? Any LSU deficit will likely be insurmountable, no matter how small. Opponents tend to fall into voodoo spells in Baton Rouge on Saturday nights. LSU’s best chance to win involves Ole Miss QB Bo Wallace succumbing to this trance.
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Arizona (-2 1/2) WASHINGTON STATE
Analysis: Trap game, and Vegas knows it, refusing to give sharp bettors even a field goal with the home Cougars. The general public, of course, is all over Arizona, according to the data I’ve seen. Despite the majority of bets coming in on the Wildcats (over 70%, according to one site that tracks multiple books), this number has dropped from ‘Cats -3 to ‘Cats -2.5. That means some folks plenty smarter than I am are laying some heavy wood on 2-5 Wazzu. I’ll follow suit and predict the outright upset.
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USC (Pick) UTAH
Analysis: Remember when the Trojans traveled cross-country and ran out of gas against Boston College’s ground-only attack? This weekend, they’re going to be asked to coral Utah RB Devontae Booker at 4,000-plus feet. Best of luck. On the other side of the ball, Utah leads the nation in sacks, and USC’s offensive line stinks. Cody Kessler is going to be picking chunks of turf out of his helmet all game.
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OKLAHOMA STATE (Pick) West Virginia
Analysis: West Virginia is coming off a season-defining upset win over Baylor, and it has a huge matchup against TCU on deck. While the smoke continues to billow out of Morgantown from last weekend’s party, the Mountaineers must travel to Oklahoma State. The Cowboys barely snuck by Kansas two weeks ago, and they were embarrassed by TCU in a humbling 42-9 loss last week. These two teams are closer in talent than the past few weeks would indicate, and the situation lines up well for a comfortable OSU win.
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MICHIGAN STATE (-17) Michigan
Analysis: Michigan State has covered its last six against the Wolverines (5-1 heads up), and this Michigan outfit is the sorriest of the bunch. I’m projecting a Spartans thrashing, but can understand a play on the other side. The Wolverines are coming off a win and a bye, giving them a week away from a locker room filled with pitchforks aimed at HC Brady Hoke. Michigan State’s propensity to gas on defense late and give up cheapie fourth quarter points also scares me a bit as a potential harbinger of a backdoor cover. No matter. The under is usually the right play in this series, and remains so on Saturday.
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Ohio State (-14) PENN STATE
Analysis: Color me skeptical about Ohio State’s resurgence over the past month and a half. Since losing to Virginia Tech—an embarrassing loss, in hindsight—the Buckeyes have beaten Kent State, Cincinnati, Maryland and Rutgers, teams that have a combined five victories against Power 5 competition. J.T. Barrett threw for 17 touchdowns in those games, but lets see what he does against a strong defense in front of the raucous Beaver Stadium faithful on Saturday night. Hopefully the Nittany Lions used their bye week fixing a rudderless offense that combined to score 19 points in consecutive losses to Northwestern and Michigan. Here’s the riddle: You have one of the nation’s best quarterbacks (Christian Hackenberg) being protected by one of the country’s worst offensive lines.
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Arizona State (-3 1/2) WASHINGTON
Analysis: Todd Graham and company are taking quite a gamble by re-inserting Taylor Kelly as starting quarterback in a Saturday night road game inside notoriously strident Huskie Stadium. If it were me, I’d ride hot-handed backup Mike Bercovici for another week. The Sun Devils have won consecutive pivotal matchups—against USC and Stanford—and I think they’re due for an adrenaline dump. UW coach Chris Petersen is playing coy with QB Cyler Miles’ (concussion) status, calling him day-to-day. If Miles were ruled out, I’d flop sides, but I assume he’ll play.
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Wild Card #1: VIRGINIA (-7) N. Carolina
Analysis: The Tar Heels haven’t won on the road this year, but they’re plenty battle tested, having already played East Carolina, Clemson, and Notre Dame outside of Chapel Hill. Behind QB Marquise Williams, who set a school record with 898 total offensive yards in the team’s past two games, UNC put a royal scare into Notre Dame a few weeks back, and knocked off Georgia Tech last Saturday. Same story for North Carolina: They can hang points on anyone, but can’t stop an elderly pedestrian from crossing the street. This pick is a vote of confidence in UNC HC Larry Fedora, more than anything: His teams tend to start slow and pick up momentum as the season goes along—a trend we’re in the middle of right now—and the Heels, as a team, are reliably streaky, going 6-1 ATS in their last seven off an ATS win.
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Wild Card #2: Memphis (-23) SMU
Analysis: The Mustangs are the worst team in major college football, and I think they’ll be the only FBS school (out of 128) to end this season 0-12. Their coach (June Jones) quit on them last month, they rank last in the nation in both scoring offense (6.5 average) and scoring defense (48.0), and they’re down to their No. 4 QB, a former walk-on. Memphis, which hung tough against both UCLA and Mississippi earlier this season, is coming off a bye. This is going to be a mauling.
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Record: Straight Up (53-27), Against the Spread (41-38-1) ... Last week: 6-4, 7-3
