Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s attacking Week 7 after a 5-0-1 Week 6. This week’s early picks include backing Michigan’s defense, Tennessee, San Diego State, Pitt, and an Under on the lowest total!
Indiana at Michigan (-34.5): O/U 47.5
You already know what it is if you’ve been following all season. Whoever is playing Michigan will be going Under their team total.
In Indiana’s three losses this season, the Hoosiers have scored 3 (vs Ohio State), 14 (vs Louisville), and 17 points (at Maryland).
Indiana’s two wins came against Indiana State and Akron, so this will be a blowout and Michigan used 73 of 74 players in its win over Minnesota.
Michigan held Indiana to 10 or fewer points in the last four trips to The Big House, plus the Wolverines held the Hoosiers to 10 and 7 points in the past two seasons.
I don’t expect more than 7 points from Indiana on the road here as no team has scored more than 10 points or one touchdown on Michigan this year.
I played Indiana’s Team Total Under 6.5 at -106 odds. I would go down to -130 odds. Shop around as team totals are only available at a few shops early in the week. This already opened at +116 and moved to -106.
Pick: Indiana Team Total Under 6.5 (1.5u)
Texas A&M at Tennessee (-3.5): O/U 56.5
Texas A&M has been all over. The Aggies played at home versus Auburn, then on a neutral field against Arkansas, then back home to host Alabama before making this road trip to Tennessee -- making this Texas A&M’s first road game in over a month (9/9/23).
The Vols are coming off a bye week, so they have had the extra time to prepare ahead of this contest, and historically, Tennessee has found success following an off week during the past two seasons.
Tennessee won 45-42 at Kentucky in 2021 and 40-13 at LSU in 2022 following bye weeks. The Vols are the home team this time and haven’t played A&M since the 2020 COVID season, and that game was rescheduled.
The Vols are 4-0 at home this season with wins of 17 or more points in all four. The Aggies are 0-1 on the road, losing at Miami, 48-33, which is the blueprint for the Vols coaching staff and the Tennessee offense to beat Texas A&M.
I grabbed Tennessee -3.5 at -105 odds. I’d go out to -5.5 as I think the Vols offense will be too much and too fast in the second half for the Aggies after three straight physically challenging SEC games and going on the road.
Pick: Tennessee -3.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Iowa at Wisconsin (-10): O/U 37.5
We have another slugfest on the way in the Big Ten when Iowa and Wisconsin meet up for the lowest O/U on the board for Week 6.
Iowa’s defense ranks 16th with 6.3 points per game allowed and 12th in red zone defense (68.8%). Wisconsin is tied 26th in scoring defense (18.4 ppg) and Iowa is tied-7th in red zone defense (62.5%).
In the previous three meetings, the final scores were 24-10, 27-7, and 28-7, all staying Under the 37.5 we have for this matchup and the loser scoring 10 or fewer points.
Since 2015, Iowa has made the trip to Madison four times and scored 7, 22, 14, and 10 points for 13.2 points per game.
I don’t trust this Iowa offense to score more than two touchdowns on the road at Wisconsin nor do I trust the Badgers offense to cover -10 against the Hawkeyes’ defense.
I took the game Under 37.5 at -110 odds in this ugly matchup and would play it down to 36.0.
Pick: Under 37.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Louisville (-8) at Pittsburgh: O/U 47.5
I love letdown spots and we have one here with Louisville coming off an impressive home win versus Notre Dame and now going on the road to 1-4 Pitt coming off a bye week.
The Panthers have been disappointing with four straight losses by 6, 11, 17, and 17 points. On the other hand, the Cardinals are 6-0 and have a bye week before taking on No. 17-ranked Duke Blue Devils at home.
This is a spot where Louisville will be eager to get to the bye week following back-to-back dogfights with NC State and Notre Dame, while Pitt is rested and coming off a bye week with extra preparation to turn its season around.
There will also be another wrinkle. Pitt is starting Christian Veilleux at QB for the first time this year, benching Phil Jurkovec. There’s no tape on Veilleux, so Louisville won’t be prepared for him.
The last two overall meetings came in 2020, a 23-20 Pitt win at home, and in 2022, a 24-10 Louisville win at home. The Panthers have won six of the past eight meetings against the Cardinals overall.
I played Pitt +8 at -110 odds and sprinkled the ML at +270. This will be on the ML sprinkles segment for the Saturday show to follow up our +180 hit on Oklahoma to beat Texas.
Pick: Pitt +8 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
San Diego State (-6) at Hawaii: O/U 52.5
San Diego State lost four straight games to UCLA, Oregon State, Boise State, and Air Force -- four Bowl teams and now go on the road to Hawaii, which is not a bowl team.
San Diego State is coming off a bye week, so this is an ideal get-right spot with the extra prep time against a 2-4 Hawaii squad that has home wins over Albany and New Mexico State.
These two met last year and oddly enough, Jaylen Mayden made the first start of his career at QB for San Diego State last year versus Hawaii. San Diego State won 16-14, and Mayden had 322 passing yards, which was a season-high for the Aztecs (104 was the high through five games).
In Hawaii’s four losses this year, the Rainbow Warriors have lost by seven or more points all four times. Hawaii ranks 116th in third-down offense (32.1%), 120th in third-down defense (46.9%), and 120th in red zone offense (69.2%).
I like San Diego State to look like a more dominant team with more to play for. I grabbed the Aztecs at -6 for -110 odds. I would go to -7.
Pick: San Diego State -6 (1u)
*Odds provided by BetMGM
Season Record: 32-18-1 (64%) +13.52u
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