The No. 16 Cyclones of Iowa State (2-0) host their instate and longstanding rival, Iowa (1-0), Saturday afternoon with bragging rights, recruiting, and the Cy-Hawk Trophy at stake.
Iowa State opened the season in Dublin, Ireland with a 24-21 Big 12 season-opening win over Kansas State. No letdown last week against South Dakota for Rocco Becht and co. as the Cyclones rolled to a 55-7 win. Through two games, Becht has thrown for 461 yards completing 68.8% of his passes. He has thrown five touchdown passes without turning the ball over in those two victories.
This is Iowa’s second game of the season. They rolled over the University of Albany last weekend in Iowa City, 34-7. The win was the 205th for Kirk Ferentz with the Hawkeyes tying him with Woody Hayes for the most wins by a Big Ten coach. Xavier Williams toted the rock 11 times for 122 yards and one touchdown in the lopsided win.
The Hawkeyes have won 16 of the 22 games against the Cyclones played in Ames since 1977. Iowa State, however, has won two of the last three matchups (both in Iowa City) including a thriller last season, 20-19.
Game Details and How to watch Iowa at Iowa State
- Date: Saturday, September 6, 2025
- Time: 12PM Eastern
- Site: Jack Trice Stadium
- City: Ames, IA
- TV/Streaming: FOX
Game Odds for Iowa at Iowa State
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Iowa Hawkeyes (+145), Iowa State Cyclones (-175)
- Spread: Iowa State -3.5 (-105)
- Total: 41.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Lets dive into each team and find a few bets for this blockbuster.
Iowa State Cyclones
Head Coach: Matt Campbell (10th Year)
2024 Record: 11-3 (6-3 B12)
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Beat Miami 42-41 in the Pop-Tarts Bowl
2024 Offense Ranking: 44th
Returning Starters: 7
2024 Defense Ranking: 32nd
Returning Starters: 6
Despite finishing the 2024 season with a glossy 11–3 record, Iowa State significantly overachieved when considering the underlying metrics, posting just 7.9 second-order wins and ranking only 35th in SP+. The Cyclones thrived on turnover luck (+9 margin, 19th nationally) and fourth-down efficiency (80%, 2nd), masking an offense that ranked 92nd in success rate and struggled mightily on standard downs (111th in SD success rate). QB Rocco Becht generated big plays to his star wideouts Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel, with ISU ranking 22nd in marginal explosiveness. However, the overall passing game efficiency waned at times, as is evidenced by their 74th-ranked passing success rate.
The defense held firm in red zone scoring and created havoc in the secondary (12th in DB havoc rate), but the front seven struggled with run fits and sack generation, as Iowa State finished Bottom 25 nationally in rushing success rate allowed and sack rate on standard downs. Heading into 2025, Matt Campbell’s team will need improved down-to-down consistency and fewer dependence on high-leverage conversions to replicate last year’s 11-win total in an expanded and deep Big 12.
Iowa State Cyclones Offense
Iowa State is looking for more consistency on offense in 2025. Their 2024 offense was explosive but inconsistent, ranking 28th in IsoPPP and 23rd in EPA/play, yet just 92nd in overall success rate and 97th in marginal efficiency. Quarterback Rocco Becht and OC Taylor Mouser leaned into big plays, particularly through the air finishing 22nd in passing marginal explosiveness. The unit struggled to sustain drives though, ranking 111th in standard downs success rate and 103rd in rushing success rate.
Iowa State Cyclone to Watch on Offense: QB Rocco Becht
Last season, Becht passed for 3,505 yards with 25 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions while completing 59.4% of his throws and ranking Top 30 nationally in Total QBR (69.4) while leading the Cyclones to an incredible 11-win season. The son of former Indianapolis Colts TE Anthony Becht also added 8 rushing touchdowns on 83 carries, showcasing red zone mobility, with a 55.4% rushing success rate.
Iowa State Cyclones Defense
Iowa State is looking for more of the same from a defense that was disciplined and “assignment-sound” in 2024, finishing 32nd in SP+ while ranking Top 40 nationally in points per drive allowed (1.81, 38th). The Cyclones’ strength was their secondary, finishing 3rd nationally in opponent completion percentage (52.7%), 10th in interception rate (4.0%) and Top 15 in DB havoc rate. Their front seven needs to be better at generating disruption. They finished 103rd in DL havoc rate and 124th in sack conversion rate in 2024, with their deficiencies on the line contributing to ISU ranking a dismal 122nd in rushing yards allowed per carry. One sign these problems persist is ISU has yet to record a sack in 2025.
Iowa State Cyclone To Watch on Defense: DB Marcus Neal
The rising sophomore is making an impact after earning a starting role, leading the team in tackles (11) and run stops (7) while also chipping in a PBU in coverage. He grades out as ISU’s highest rated defender with an 82nd% defensive grade in addition to 76th%+ rankings in tackling, coverage and run defense according to PFF.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Head Coach: Kirk Ferentz (27th year)
2024 Record: 8-5
Bowl/Playoff Appearance: Lost 27-24 to Missouri in the Music City Bowl
Offense Ranking: 67th
Offensive Returning Starters: 5
Defense Ranking: 7th
Defensive Returning Starters: 5
The Iowa Hawkeyes remain true to their identity under long-tenured head coach Kirk Ferentz: elite defense, elite special teams, and an offense that remains a work in progress. The 2024 squad finished 8-5 with a Top 10 SP+ defense (7th) and the No. 5 special teams unit, but ranked just 67th on offense, struggling with efficiency (42.1% success rate, 79th) and explosiveness (98th in rate of 20+ yard plays). Iowa’s defense was among the nation’s best at preventing big plays (6th in IsoPPP), finishing drives (45th in points per scoring opportunity), and generating havoc up front (14th DL Havoc Rate), setting the tone for another season of low-scoring slugfests in 2025.
The Hawkeyes started slowly in their 2025 opener against FCS Albany, completing just 10-of-16 passes for 48 yards but finished strong to dispatch the Great Danes 34-7. On the bright side they ran at will, gobbling up 310 yards of real estate while averaging 5.8 YPC and suffocating Albany defensively, holding them to 177 total yards on the day.
Iowa Hawkeyes Offense
Iowa’s 2024 offense showed modest improvement but still struggled overall, finishing 67th in Offensive SP+ and ranking outside the top 75 in both overall success rate (79th) and explosiveness (97th in IsoPPP). The rushing attack was the relative strength, averaging 5.5 yards per carry (34th) and ranking 17th in yards per successful rush, though the passing game remained anemic with just 5.7 yards per dropback (115th) and a 38.7% success rate (98th). Hampered by one of the nation’s slowest tempos (121st in seconds per play) and a bottom-five 3-and-out rate (129th), the Hawkeyes leaned heavily on field position and turnover margin to mask their offensive inefficiency.
Iowa Hawkeye to Watch on Offense: OT Gennings Dunker
Dunker started 13 games at right tackle, recording 571 snaps while allowing 2 sacks and a 2.8% pressure rate over 253 pass-block reps. As a run blocker, he was steady with just a 0.9% run block blown rate and 1.8% total blown block percentage. Dunker brought durability and functional strength to the edge, helping solidify the right side of Iowa’s offensive front. He was considered a consensus preseason All-Big Ten honoree heading into 2025 alongside C Logan Jones and anchors an experienced Iowa OL that returns 85 starts.
Iowa Hawkeyes Defense
Iowa’s 2024 defense once again ranked among the nation’s elite, finishing 7th in SP+ and excelling in explosive play prevention, ranking 6th in both IsoPPP allowed and marginal explosiveness. The Hawkeyes were particularly stingy against the pass, placing 11th in yards per dropback allowed (5.6) and 2nd in air yards per target (8.1), while their defensive line generated havoc at a Top 15 rate nationally. Despite allowing a 62.5% red zone touchdown rate and troubling 126th ranking in goal-to-go TD percentage, Phil Parker’s unit remained fundamentally sound, creating pressure while limiting yards after contact and finishing 8th in points allowed per drive.
Iowa Hawkeye to Watch on Defense: DE Ethan Hurkett
Hurkett was a disruptive force on the edge, tallying 57 tackles, 11.5 TFLs, and 6.5 sacks across 13 games while earning a stellar 95.0% tackle rate. He ranked second on the team in sacks created (3) and added four forced fumbles, showcasing a consistent ability to win off the edge with 354 pass rushes logged. Hurkett’s 5.1% pressure rate was modest, but he led the team with a ferocious 16.0 havoc plays.
Read More: Week 1 Top 25 After Manning Debacle
Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
Eric Froton (@CFFroton): ISU RB Carson Hansen OVER 8.5 receiving yards
Last year Iowa State managed to beat the Hawkeyes 20-19 in a game where they ran for 89 yards and threw for 272. Imagine how much they intend to throw in a trailing script if they get down? ISU has two talented running backs in Carson Hansen and Abu Sama, with Hansen taking the lion’s share of reps. However, in the pass game it’s been exclusively Hansen getting the work, catching 3-of-3 targets for 26 yards and three missed tackles so far in 2025. I think the script is in our favor to cash an Over 8.5 Receiving Yards prop on Carson Hansen.
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