The No. 23 USC Trojans head to Memorial Stadium for a primetime “Blackout” matchup against the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Saturday night.
The game features and may come down to a battle between USC’s top-ranked passing offense, led by QB Jayden Maiava and star receiver Makai Lemon, and Nebraska’s second-ranked pass defense.
While analytics favor the Trojans to break their recent road struggles, the Cornhuskers, guided by QB Dylan Raiola and motivated by a raucous home crowd, aim for a signature win to keep their own season hopes alive in what is expected to be a tight contest.
Lets dive into the schools and look at each on both sides of the ball, a handful of players to watch, and also some key numbers.
Game Details and How to watch No. 23 USC at Nebraska
- Date: Saturday, November 1, 2025
- Time: 7:30PM Eastern
- Site: Memorial Stadium
- City: Lincoln, NE
- TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
Game Odds for USC at Nebraska
The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: USC Trojans (-198), Nebraska Cornhuskers (+164)
- Spread: USC -4.5 (-115)
- Total: 59.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
USC Trojans
Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
2025 Record: 5-2
Offense Ranking: 1
Defense Ranking: 50
Strength of Schedule: 22
USC is 5–2 (3–1) with the 16th SP+ profile, and is powered by the nation’s #1 offense that averages 7.89 yards per play and 3.72 points per drive, with 10.6% of plays gaining 20+ yards. The defense is middle of the pack ranking 50th in SP+ while allowing 5.73 yards per play and a 42.8% success rate but shows teeth up front with a Top 10 pressure rate (38.8%, 6th) and is sacking opponents at an 8.6% clip (14th). Results include a 31–13 win over Michigan and setbacks at Illinois and Notre Dame, but there is a path to 8–9 wins with toss-ups at Nebraska/Iowa and a likely uphill trip to Oregon. Overall, the Trojans’ elite, efficient offense plus an aggressive pass rush yields a +19.3 scoring margin to date.
The USC Trojans Offense
USC’s offense is performing at an elite level, ranking #1 nationally in SP+ and leading the country in yards per drive (50.3), yards per play (7.89), and points per drive (3.72). The Trojans boast a 53.8% success rate (3rd nationally) and a 10.6% explosive-play rate, blending balance and efficiency with a 6.2 yards per carry average and a 9.5 yards per dropback mark. Their offensive line has been disciplined and efficient, allowing sacks on just 2.5% of dropbacks (8th) while allowing a dirt-low 14.4% stuff rate (24th). With an offense converting 82% of down sets, completing 69% of passes, and ranking #1 in standard downs success rate, USC’s unit remains one of college football’s most potent and consistent scoring machines.
USC Player to Watch on Offense: QB Jayden Maiava
Jayden Maiava has been precise in his accuracy, completing 68.1% of his passes for 2,180 yards, 15 touchdowns, and just 4 interceptions through seven starts. His 15.0 yards per completion and 55.5% success rate showcase a strong vertical passing game paired with consistent down-to-down efficiency. Maiava has been highly effective under pressure, taking sacks on only 2.3% of dropbacks and averaging 9.9 yards per dropback with an impressive 11.1 ANY/A and 92.1 Total QBR. On the ground, he’s added mobility value with 69 rushing yards and four touchdowns, converting over 55% of his runs into successful plays while keeping defenses honest with his legs.
The USC Trojans Defense
USC’s defense has made moderate strides under coordinator D’Anton Lynn, ranking #50 nationally in SP+ with notable disruption up front but difficulty against the better ground games they’ve faced. The Trojans allow 5.73 yards per play (88th) and a 42.8% success rate (97th), struggling particularly against the run with a troubling 46.4% rushing success rate (115th). However, the front seven generates havoc, ranking 6th in pressure rate (38.8%), 14th in sack rate, and 10th in defensive line havoc, showing a capacity to create negative plays and impact passing downs. While opponents still sustain drives too easily, the unit’s 21st-ranked points-per-scoring-opportunity and 50% red-zone touchdown rate indicate timely stops have been important to their success.
USC Player to Watch on Defense: Safety Bishop Fitzgerald
Bishop Fitzgerald has been one of USC’s most impactful defenders, combining strong tackling with ball-hawking coverage. He has tallied 33 tackles, 9 havoc plays, 1.5 tackles for loss, and 1 sack, while also forcing five incompletions and intercepting two passes. In coverage, Fitzgerald has allowed 103 yards on 13 targets (7.9 yards per attempt) despite giving up three touchdowns, maintaining a middling 52.1 defensive QBR allowed and an excellent 30.8% forced incompletion rate. His instincts and aggressiveness around the ball make him a key piece of the Trojans’ secondary, capable of both disrupting passing lanes and contributing as a downhill run defender.
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Head Coach: Matt Rhule
2025 Record: 6-2
Offense Ranking: 41
Defense Ranking: 20
Strength of Schedule: 44
Nebraska has quietly built itself into a potential Big Ten contender under newly-extended HC Matt Rhule, ranking 27th overall in SP+ with a stout 20th ranked defense and improving 41st offense. The Cornhuskers’ offense operates methodically (104th in pace) but efficiently, ranking 15th in success rate (49.3%) and 37th in yards per play (6.18) behind elite short-yardage execution and a 74.2% completion rate (2nd nationally). Defensively, Nebraska is anchored by an excellent pass unit — 9th in yards per dropback allowed (4.6) and 13th in passing success rate allowed (33.8%) — while generating inconsistent havoc plays (61st overall havoc rate). At 6–2 (3–2 Big Ten) with Top 30 marks in both efficiency and explosiveness, the Huskers project for roughly eight wins and a postseason berth, positioning themselves as one of the most improved teams in the Big Ten heading into November.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers Offense
Nebraska’s offense has emerged as a well-balanced unit focused on execution under OC Dana Holgorsen, ranking 41st in Offensive SP+ and 15th nationally in success rate (49.3%). Dylan Raiola’s quarterback play has been sharp, with the Cornhuskers completing 74.2% of passes (2nd nationally) and posting 10.0 adjusted net yards per attempt (34th) while maintaining a strong 49.7% passing success rate (13th). On the ground, Nebraska’s rushing attack complements the passing game with a 49.0% success rate (24th), generating steady early-down efficiency despite middling explosiveness (61st in EPA per rush). The offense’s biggest strengths lie in sustaining drives and avoiding negative plays — ranking Top 20 in both 3-and-out percentage (12th) and stuff rate allowed (19th) — making it one of the most consistent and methodical attacks in the Big Ten.
Nebraska Player to Watch on Offense: QB Dylan Raiola
Sophomore quarterback Dylan Raiola has shown flashes of promise in his second season, completing 72.8% of his passes for 1,909 yards and 17 touchdowns across eight starts. His 11.2 yards per completion average highlights his ability to push the ball downfield, though a 10% sack rate and 6 interceptions underscore moments of inexperience under pressure. Raiola’s 48.9% passing success rate ranks solidly in the middle tier, reflecting steady efficiency within Nebraska’s balanced offensive scheme. As a runner, he’s added 74 yards on 17 carries, contributing only situational mobility while developing consistency as both a pocket operator and improviser.
The Nebraska Cornhuskers Defense
Nebraska’s defense has developed into a well-rounded unit, ranking 20th in Defensive SP+ and 9th nationally in yards per dropback allowed (4.6). The Cornhuskers excel at limiting big plays, giving up explosive gains on just 4.2% of snaps (13th) while holding opponents to a 37.4% success rate (29th) overall. Their pass defense has been especially strong, allowing only an 8.5% explosive pass rate (3rd) and a 33.8% passing success rate (13th), while maintaining solid early-down control with a 42.2% standard-down success rate allowed (20th). Though the pass rush ranks middle-of-the-pack in pressure creation, the unit’s combination of coverage discipline and situational resilience has made it the backbone of Nebraska’s 6–2 start.
Nebraska Player to Watch on Defense: LB Javin Wright
Linebacker Javin Wright has been a vital defensive playmaker for Nebraska, recording 45 tackles, 9 havoc plays, and a 100% tackle success rate across seven games. His range and instincts have made him a key force against the run, adding 6 tackles for loss and contributing a sack along with 1 interception and 2 pass breakups in coverage. Wright’s ability to generate pressure from the second level (10.5% pressure rate) complements his reliability in space, where he’s allowed just 32 yards on 8 targets (4.0 yards/att) and a 32.9 defensive QBR when targeted. His combination of downhill explosiveness and sound coverage discipline has made him one of the Cornhuskers’ most impactful and complete defenders this season.
No. 18 USC Trojans and Nebraska Cornhuskers team stats, betting trends
- Nebraska has won 7 of its last 9 at home
- Nebraska has failed to cover the Spread in 4 of its last 5 games
- 8 of Nebraska’s last 10 home games have gone over the Total
Rotoworld Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Nebraska +6.5 (-105)
One of the most well-worn stats we’ve seen about USC is how HC Lincoln Riley is certifiably abysmal when crossing 2 time zones, going 1-7 in such scenarios ATS. For their part, Nebraska has a penchant for playing close games, with their four P4 victories coming by a total of 16 points. Even when they lost against Michigan, it came down to the wire in a 30-27 nailbiter. We were getting +7 early in the week, but that’s come down to +4.5 now so I’d grab Nebraska and the points as soon as possible before it plummets further.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between No. 23 USC and Nebraska
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Nebraska Cornhuskers at +4.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the over on the Game Total of 59.5.
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