Desperate to get in the win column, the Fighting Irish (0-2) welcome the Purdue Boilermakers (2-1) into South Bend for a Saturday afternoon tilt on NBC/Peacock.
After working over Ball State and Southern Illinois, the Boilermakers got smacked at home by USC last weekend, 33-17. The Purdue defense gave up 460 yards of offense to the Trojans. Those numbers make Marcus Freeman and co. smile. After getting pushed off the line of scrimmage by the Canes and run around the field against the Aggies, the Irish should feast on offense and defense against the Boilermakers.
Lets dive into the matchup and learn more about these two teams.
Game Details and How to watch Purdue at No. 24 Notre Dame
- Date: Saturday, September 20, 2025
- Time: 3:30PM Eastern
- Site: Notre Dame Stadium
- City: South Bend, IN
- TV/Streaming: NBC/Peacock
Game Odds for Purdue at Notre Dame
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Purdue Boilermakers (+1200), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-2400)
- Spread: Notre Dame -24.5 (-108)
- Total: 54.5 points
This game opened Notre Dame -26.0.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Notre Dame
Head Coach: Marcus Freeman
2025 Record: 1-2
Offense Ranking: 26th
Defense Ranking: 28th
Strength of Schedule: 38th
Facing one of the nation’s most difficult schedules through two games, Notre Dame has stumbled to an 0–2 start falling to Miami (27–24) and Texas A&M (41–40) by a combined four points. Offensively, the Irish rank 26th in SP+ thanks to an explosive passing attack (13.1 yards per successful pass, 23.1% of completions going 20+ yards) but have been inefficient on the ground (114th in non-sack yards per carry), ranking 109th in percentage of plays gaining zero or fewer yards. Defensively, Notre Dame has struggled mightily in key areas—ranking outside the top 100 in efficiency (105th in success rate), explosiveness allowed (70th) and finishing drives (118th in points per scoring opportunity). Special teams have also been a liability (114th in SP+), and the Irish rank next-to dead last in havoc rate (134th) and 131st in expected turnovers allowed, compounding their already thin margin for error.
The Notre Dame Offense
Notre Dame’s offense ranks 26th in SP+ despite inconsistent efficiency metrics, driven by a high-volume, aggressive passing attack that ranks 22nd nationally in 20+ yard completions (23.1%) and 32nd in yards per successful dropback (16.4). The Irish have struggled to sustain drives, ranking just 83rd in success rate (42.6%) and 77th in down set conversion rate (72.1%), with a particularly poor rushing game that ranks 114th in non-sack yards per carry (4.1) and 121st in stuff rate. On standard downs, Notre Dame is among the nation’s least effective units, ranking 119th in success rate and 118th in yards per carry before contact. Despite these inefficiencies, the offense has still averaged 5.76 yards per play and posted 40 points against Texas A&M, thanks to their ability to spring blg plays and a 75% red-zone touchdown conversion rate.
Notre Dame Player to Watch on Offense: RB Jeremiyah Love
Notre Dame’s heralded dual-threat weapon has been a focal point of the offense, totaling 33 carries for 127 yards (3.85 YPC) and catching 8 of 12 targets for 79 yards and 1 touchdown. He owns a respectable 42.4% success rate and gained 10+ yards on 12.1% of his attempts. As a receiver, he’s been dependable with a 66.7% catch rate, 6.6 yards per target, and 74% of his routes coming on short throws. Love has split his receiving usage between the slot (25%) and the backfield (25%), showcasing his versatility in his passing game alignment.
The Notre Dame Defense
Notre Dame’s defense has been underwhelming through three games, ranking 28th in SP+ but struggling in key areas like third-down stops (73rd in success rate) and points per drive allowed (120th). The Irish are allowing 5.88 yards per play (103rd nationally) and are one of the worst defenses in the country at generating negative plays, ranking 134th in overall havoc rate and 118th in stuff rate. They’ve especially struggled against the pass, ranking 129th in EPA/dropback and allowing a 45.7% passing success rate (110th), while producing minimal pressure with the lowest sack rate in FBS (1.4%). Despite decent red zone efficiency and a strong man coverage ratio (22nd nationally), the inability to disrupt opposing quarterbacks or create turnovers (131st in expected turnovers) has left the Irish defense vulnerable in high-leverage moments.
Notre Dame Player to Watch on Defense: LB Drayk Bowen
Bowen has been a tackling machine for the Irish, registering 11 total stops (4 solo, 7 assisted) while showing strong instincts against the run with a 90.9% run tackle share. His 73.3% overall tackle rate indicates reasonable efficiency, though he has not recorded a tackle for loss or any havoc plays such as sacks, pass breakups, or forced fumbles. Despite the limited splash plays, his high tackle volume and run-game presence have anchored the Notre Dame front seven effectively.
Purdue Boilermakers
Head Coach: Barry Odom
2025 Record: 2-1
Offense Ranking: 91st
Defense Ranking: 70th
Strength of Schedule: 18th
Purdue’s 2025 profile reveals a team that is respectable in efficiency metrics but struggles significantly in key areas of explosiveness and finishing drives. The offense ranks 40th nationally in success rate (48.5%) and is Top 10 in yards per drive (48.0, 10th) but ranks just 72nd in yards per play (5.81) and 95th in points per scoring opportunity (4.10), with an extremely poor red zone TD rate of 46.7% (111th). The defense gives up too many chunk plays (93rd in 20+ yard plays allowed), while also struggling with field position (#1 worst average starting field position nationally) and creating negative plays (122nd in 3-and-out rate, 83rd in havoc rate). A poor turnover margin (-4) and special teams (94th in SP+) have further undermined Purdue’s performance, leaving Barry Odom’s team with slim odds of reaching a bowl despite their 2–1 start.
The Purdue Offense
Purdue’s offense ranks 91st in SP+ and shows a run-pass imbalance, relying heavily on a moderately efficient passing game while posting some of the worst rushing metrics in the country. The Boilermakers rank just 128th in yards per rush (3.5) and 129th in yards per successful rush (6.5), with a Bottom 5 stuff rate (124th), but they compensate somewhat with a passing success rate of 49.5% (31st) and a 7.9 yards per dropback average (35th). Despite strong conversion rates on standard (52.8%, 46th) and passing downs (40.0%, 25th), finishing drives has been an issue—Purdue scores just 4.10 points per scoring opportunity (95th) and converts only 46.7% of red zone trips into touchdowns (111th). The line has struggled in protection (114th in pressures allowed) and the unit is turnover-prone (4 INTs, 120th in INT%), limiting the upside of an otherwise competent passing attack.
Purdue Player to Watch on Offense: QB Ryan Browne
The Boilermakers’ signal-caller has completed 63.6% of his passes for 786 yards with a 5-to-4 TD-INT ratio over three starts, showing a commendable yards-per-completion mark of 14.0. He has a respectable success rate of 48.7% and an 8.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), but a relatively low Total QBR of 55.3 due to inconsistency and turnover issues. Browne is prone to pressure, taking sacks on 6.4% of his dropbacks and pressured on 25.0% of them. As a runner, he has contributed 68 yards and 2 touchdowns on 19 carries, with a 52.6% rushing success rate but limited explosiveness (only 4.0% of his carries gained 10+ yards).
The Purdue Defense
Purdue’s defense ranks 70th in SP+ but has shown vulnerability against the run, allowing a 44.1% rushing success rate (95th) and ranking just 76th in yards per carry allowed (4.5). Though they’ve posted decent havoc metrics at the linebacker level (50th) and rank 4th nationally in converting pressures into sacks (47.4%), they struggle to generate consistent disruption overall (83rd in havoc rate). The secondary has held up reasonably well in preventing explosive completions, ranking 42nd in percentage of dropbacks gaining 0 or fewer yards and allowing just a 49.0% adjusted completion rate (5th nationally). However, they’ve yet to force a turnover through three games with a -4 turnover margin (124th), which continues to put the unit under pressure.
Purdue Player to Watch on Defense: ILB Charles Correa
The Purdue linebacker has been a disruptive presence in the middle of the defense, tallying 11 total tackles with a 100% tackle rate and 63.6% of his stops coming in the run game. He leads the team with 5.0 havoc plays, including 4.0 tackles for loss and 1.5 sacks, showcasing his ability to make plays behind the line of scrimmage. Correa has also contributed in pass coverage with a pass breakup and one run stop. As a pass rusher, he generated 2 pressures on just 7 rushes (28.6% pressure rate) and showed quick timing to the quarterback with an average Time to Pressure of 2.57 seconds, making him a well-rounded threat at inside linebacker.
Purdue at Notre Dame: team stats, betting trends
- Notre Dame has gone 7-3 in its last 10 games
- Notre Dame has covered in 7 of its last 10 games
- Notre Dame’s last 4 games have gone OVER the Total
Rotoworld Bet Best Bets
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Notre Dame Team Total UNDER 39.5
Notre Dame is coming off two tight losses to upper-tier opponents and now face the lowly, rebuilding Boilermakers. I think ND wins but doesn’t press their foot on the gas too hard, instead choosing to salt the game away and escape South Bend with an easy victory. I’m taking Notre Dame’s Team Total of 39.5 UNDER.
Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports): Notre Dame 1H -14.5 and Full Game -24.5
Last season, Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois 16-13 in one of the weirdest games of the season. The following week, Notre Dame dismantled Purdue 66-7. Notre Dame came out of the gate and led 14-0 after the first quarter, 42-0 at the half.
Purdue ranks 123rd in havoc allowed on the season and averaged 1.9 yards per carry against USC, so Notre Dame should hunt in the backfield. Most of the Irish’s numbers are all soiled because of playing two of the toughest opponents so far, Miami and Texas A&M. I think Notre Dame is at least 30 points better than Purdue, so I am laying the points with the Irish first half and full game.
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the MLB calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, ballpark information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between Boilermakers and Fighting Irish:
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Purdue Boilermakers at +26.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the under on the Game Total of 55.5.
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