One of the most intriguing and consequential games of the college football weekend kicks off Saturday afternoon in Eugene, OR where the 6th-ranked Ducks host the No. 16 Trojans of USC (8-2).
There are significant College Football Playoff implications for both teams. USC has clawed their way into the chase for a playoff bid but will see those hopes extinguished with a loss. Oregon is currently slated to receive an invite but a loss at home to USC coupled with the fact they have no season-defining win on their schedule puts that invite in jeopardy.
Matchup to Watch: USC’s high-powered offense, led by quarterback Jayden Maiava and top receiver Makai Lemon vs. Oregon’s top-ranked passing and overall defense
Lets dive into each school’s offense and defense, highlight a few players to watch, and see where the numbers lead us.
Game Details and How to Watch No. 16 USC at No. 6 Oregon
- Date: Saturday, November 22, 2025
- Time: 3:30PM Eastern
- Site: Autzen Stadium
- City: Eugene, OR
- TV/Streaming: CBS
Game Odds for No. 6 Oregon vs. No. 16 USC
The latest odds as of Thursday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: USC Trojans (+295), Oregon Ducks (-375)
- Spread: Oregon -9.5 (-112)
- Total: 59.5 points
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!
Oregon Ducks
Head Coach: Dan Lanning
2025 Record: 9-1 (6-1)
Offense Ranking: 10
Defense Ranking: 3
Strength of Schedule: 18
Oregon has established itself as a Top 5 SP+ juggernaut behind a deep roster that ranks 10th in offensive SP+ and 3rd in defense while winning nine of its first ten games. The Ducks rank Top 10 nationally in both yards per drive (42.9, 6th) and points per drive (3.40, 6th), blending elite rushing efficiency (2nd in rushing success rate, 6.8 YPC) with a surgical passing attack led by a 72.6% completion rate (3rd) and 11.4 adjusted net yards per attempt (9th). Defensively, Oregon suffocates opponents with the nation’s No. 1 explosiveness prevention rate and No. 3 yards per play allowed (3.98), while leveraging a Top 10 havoc rate and elite pass defense metrics (5th in passing success rate allowed). Despite a challenging closing stretch against USC and Washington, Dan Lanning’s Ducks are positioned for another deep postseason run.
The Oregon Ducks Offense
Oregon’s offense continues to thrive under 1st year starting QB Dante Moore, ranking 10th in Offensive SP+ and pairing a Top 6 success rate (51.2%) with elite explosiveness that yields 7.36 yards per play (3rd nationally). The Ducks dominate on the ground with the No. 2 rushing success rate (53.8%), 6.8 yards per carry, and the nation’s best EPA per rush, creating consistent favorable down‑and‑distance situations. Their passing game is equally dangerous, completing 72.6% of attempts (3rd), generating 11.4 ANY/A (9th), and producing chunk gains with a 21.9% explosive completion rate. With a Top 10 points‑per‑drive output and one of the country’s lowest havoc rates allowed, Will Stein’s offense dictates tempo and overwhelms opponents with both balance and efficiency.
Oregon Player to Watch on Offense: QB Dante Moore
Dante Moore has delivered a sharp statistical season for Oregon, completing 72.8% of his passes for 2,190 yards and a 21:5 TD-to-INT ratio while posting a strong 9.3 adjusted net yards per attempt and 72.5 QBR. He sports an elite 89.0 passing grade from PFF and averages 11.8 yards per completion with an 8.5 aDOT and 80.9% adjusted completion rate. Moore has taken just 10 sacks all season despite 66 pressures, thanks to a quick 2.61s time-to-throw and only a 15.2% pressure-to-sack conversion rate. As a runner, he chipped in 256 yards on the ground at 6.7 YPC with a solid 50% success rate, making him a reliable threat on designed keepers and scrambles. Though his turnover-worthy play rate sits at a minuscule 2.0%, he remains aggressive enough to produce big plays, logging 19 big-time throws with a 7.2% BTT rate.
The Oregon Ducks Defense
Oregon’s defense has developed into a Top 3 SP+ unit, holding opponents to just 3.98 yards per play and the nation’s lowest defensive marginal explosiveness rating. The Ducks excel at winning early downs, allowing only a 36.2% success rate (18th) and are suffocating rushing attacks at a 3.7 yards per carry clip with one of the best LB havoc rates in the country. Their pass defense is even more dominant - opponents complete just 50.6% of passes (4th), produce negative EPA per dropback, and struggle mightily against Oregon’s aggressive man‑coverage looks (3.8 YPC in man). With strong tackling, a Top 10 points‑per‑drive mark and a disruptive pass‑rush despite modest sack totals, this unit consistently interrupts drives and forces opponents out of their offensive comfort zones.
Oregon Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Matayo Uiagalelei
Sophomore EDGE Matayo Uiagalelei has lived up to his blue-chip billing by recording 28 pressures, 7.0 TFLs, and 4.0 sacks on 188 pass-rushing snaps. He is posting a 14.9% pressure rate while being credited with creating four sacks and 26 first pressures. Uiagalelei has added 32 total tackles and 5 run stops, playing with a high motor against the run where he maintained a 76.2% tackle rate. Though he hasn’t forced a turnover, Uiagalelei impacted passing lanes with 3 PBUs and generated 10 total havoc plays, providing the Ducks with a dynamic presence off the edge.
USC Trojans
Head Coach: Lincoln Riley
2025 Record: 8-2 (6-1)
Offense Ranking: 6
Defense Ranking: 37
Strength of Schedule: 22
USC’s 2025 squad is powered by a Top 10 offense (6th) that ranks second nationally in both yards per play (7.43) and EPA/play (0.30), ranking Top 15 in success rate, explosiveness, and both rushing (6.0 YPC) and passing efficiency (8.8 YPA, 91.2 QBR). Lincoln Riley’s offense is elite on standard downs (55.7% success rate, 8th) and extremely effective in finishing drives (3.47 points per drive, 5th), despite modest tempo and underwhelming special teams execution (52nd in SP+). Defensively, 2nd year DC D’Anton Lynn has engineered improvement over the past two years, but the Trojans remain vulnerable to competent offenses (106th in success rate allowed), though they do flash with a strong defensive line havoc rate (17th) and Top 20 sack rate. At 8-2 with a win over Michigan and losses to Illinois and Notre Dame, USC enters the final two weeks with a chance to reach double-digit wins.
The USC Trojans Offense
USC’s offense under Lincoln Riley is one of the most dangerous units in the country, ranking 6th in SP+, 2nd in EPA/play (0.30), and 2nd in yards per play (7.43). The Trojans excel at both moving the chains (51.4% success rate, 4th) and hitting chunk plays, with 9.3% of plays going for 20+ yards (7th) and a Top 12 marginal explosiveness rate. Their rushing attack is punishing (6.0 YPC, 14th), and they pair it with a deadly passing game that averages 8.8 yards per dropback and ranks 1st nationally in Total QBR (91.2). USC converts on 51.7% of third downs (8th) and averages 3.47 points per drive (5th), making them nearly unstoppable when operating on schedule.
USC Player to Watch on Offense: WR Makai Lemon
Makai Lemon emerged as USC’s top receiving threat in 2025, turning 91 targets into 71 receptions for 1,090 yards and 8 touchdowns, while averaging a robust 15.4 yards per catch. He posted elite marks in both overall (91.2) and receiving grades (92.1) according to PFF, thanks to a smooth route-running profile and a remarkably low drop rate of just 1.3%. Lemon was deployed across formations but did most of his damage from the slot (72% slot rate), where he consistently created separation and generated 467 yards after the catch. His average depth of target (10.6) and 3.60 yards per route run underscore his blend of explosiveness and volume efficiency in Lincoln Riley’s high-powered passing game.
The USC Trojans Defense
USC’s defense has improved under new leadership but still lags behind its high-powered offense, ranking 37th in SP+ with a troubling Defensive EPA/play of 0.04 (75th) and a Success Rate allowed of 43.8% (106th). The run defense in particular is a liability, surrendering 5.3 yards per carry (107th) and ranking 126th in rushing success rate allowed. While the pass rush is effective (7.4% sack rate, 19th), the Trojans generate middling Havoc (16.4%, 55th) and struggle to create negative plays on passing downs (133rd in PD marginal explosiveness allowed). Despite strong tackling fundamentals (5th in tackle success rate), their bend-don’t-break approach and lack of disruption make them vulnerable.
USC Player to Watch on Defense: LB Eric Gentry
Eric Gentry has been the tone setter of USC’s defense in 2025, leading the team with 67 total tackles and pacing all Trojans with 13 havoc plays, including 7.0 tackles for loss and 3.0 sacks. The rangy inside linebacker paired strong run defense (71.6% of tackles vs. the run) with an aggressive downhill trigger, posting a 21.3% pressure rate on just 47 pass-rushing snaps—an elite figure for an ILB. He forced a fumble and contributed in coverage with a pass breakup, showcasing his all-around impact at the second level. Gentry’s blend of length, athleticism, and disruptive instincts have made him USC’s most complete and consistent defensive playmaker throughout the season.
USC and Oregon team stats, betting trends
- Oregon has won 18 of its last 20 home games
- USC has covered the Spread in 4 of its last 5 games as an underdog
- USC is 5-5 ATS for the season
- 6 of USC’s last 8 road games have stayed UNDER the Total
- The UNDER has cashed in 5 of USC’s games this season (5-5)
- Oregon is 6-4 ATS this season
- The OVER has cashed in 5 of Oregon’s 10 games this season (5-5)
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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Malik Benson UNDER 35.5 Receiving Yards
Gary Bryant had been the established starting slot receiver for Oregon until he got hurt in Week 11 against Iowa, while star freshman WR Dak Moore has been absent since Week 9. Last Week Oregon ran a two TE set a lot of the time with Sadiq and Jamari Johnson, with the Ducks spreading the ball around to 10 different WRs in the blowout over Minnesota. Against more respectable pass defenses with inferior fronts, OU has slowed the game down leaned more heavily on the run. Here are the passing yardage totals against a handful of B10 opponents:
112yds at Iowa
86yds vs. Wisconsin
186yds vs. Indiana
248yds at Penn State
178yds vs. Northwestern
Dan Lanning was characteristically coy about Dak Moore and Gary Bryant’s respective status for the game, there’s even a Dark Horse potential Evan Stewart plays. If any of the injured wideouts suits up, I expect Malik Benson to take the production hit. Sadiq was the WR1 last week and Benson has caught 2 passes or less in his last 6 games, so I’m taking Benson’s Under 35.5 Receiving Yards
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between USC and Oregon
- Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
- Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the USC Trojans at +9.5.
- Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 59.5.
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