This week the PGA Tour heads to Mexico for the Mexico Open at Vidanta. While I’m excited to have another week of golf to bet on, I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t terrified to bet on this field. The field is top-heavy. Only two golfers in this field are inside the top 50. That being world no.1 Jon Rahm and world no. 16 Tony Finau. Finau is a great golfer, but even the talent gap between Rahm and Finau is massive. Rahm has nearly as many wins this season as Finau has in his entire career. That’s no knock on Finau either; Rahm is just playing out of his mind. His odds of winning the Mexico Open… +250. That’s less than his odds of +350 last season, but that didn’t matter, as he went on to outlast Finau in the final round to win. I’m not stopping you if you want to single-bullet bet Rahm. I can’t find it in my gut to bet a golfer pretournament at odds that low. So, here’s to lighting my money on fire and trying to bet on golfers with longer odds who can hopefully win.
2023 Mexico Open Betting Picks
Gary Woodland +2500
When betting against a favorite as talented as Rahm, I like to have a couple of golfers with win equity. When the Sunday grind comes, I want a guy who has been in that position before and will not crumble under pressure. Gary Woodland is precisely that. The major champion has been in winning positions, and I trust him over many others in the field. Not too long ago, Woodland struggled, but now, he’s in great form and playing at a course that suits his skill set.
Woodland’s play has been solid outside of his missed cut at the Arnold Palmer. He’s gained, on average, +2 strokes total over his last five events. His biggest issue has been his play around the greens and with his putter. He’s losing strokes in both fields, but wedge play is not overly critical here, and he should get some relief with the slow paspalum greens.
Woodland is top five in driving distance and is a beast with his long irons. His strokes gained data has him 13th in my primary model. He’s only not higher because he’s 126th in sand saves and 122nd in SG: P. Even with those blemishes on him, he’s still a worthy pick to win.
Will Gordon +7000
Betting on Will Gordon at a course that is set up for bombers should be mandatory. However, there’s a reason why he’s +7000. He’s failed to register a top 10 since Mayakoba, but in that event, he finished T3. Much like Mayakoba, Vidanta Vallarta has Velcro like paspalum greens. Which should help Gordon this week. In his success, Gordon has gained strokes off the tee and on approach. His putter has been serviceable. We don’t need a Cam Smith-like performance on the putting greens for him to be in contention. Just be close to even on the greens, and the rest of his game will do the work.
Nicolai Hojgaard +3000
The price on the young Dane Nicolai Hojgaard is a bit on the lower side, but it’s a price I’m still comfortable backing him at. Win equity is unique with Hojgaard. He’s yet to win on the PGA Tour, but he already has three professional wins, with two coming on the DP World Tour. In his Italian Open win, he was able to hold off a couple of big names, Tommy Fleetwood, and Adrian Meronk. Hojgaard fits the bomber profile I am targeting at this event. He’s hitting his drives an average of 330 yards, he’s solid with his long irons, and he can get birdies in bunches. A comp course that I’ve been using is Corales Golf Club. Another long resort course with slow paspalum greens. Also, a place where Hojgaard had a solo 2nd place finish.
Alex Smalley +6500
This is a guy I’m targeting who doesn’t fit inside my bomber profile. He’s only 63rd on my model and isn’t a 320-yard driver. He’s a golfer when playing at his best, who hits the ball in the fairway about 305 yards, hits the green in regulation, and makes putts. Much like many of the golfers in this field, Smalley has had a mixed back of results. However, there are some results that make me interested in him this week. His T11 finish at Bermuda, his T4 AT THE Houston Open, his T5 at the RSM Classic, and more importantly, his T6 here last season. At +6500, I’ll take a chance on a somewhat consistent golfer in decent form with success at this course.
Luke List +6600
There was a time when Luke List would pop on models at long courses that don’t demand much from the putter. In fact, he was my first bet at the Farmers solely because he was the number one-rated golfer in my model. I remember getting trash-talked by the Twitterverse when I posted the bet. He went on to win that event. I’m not sure if he can replicate the success of gaining +3.7 strokes on the putting surface, but it can be done. There was no indication that List would putt well heading into that week. But he did. That’s the hope that I have for him this week. Well, maybe not putting well, but not putting god-awful like he normally does.
List doesn’t check out as the top-ranked golfer in my model. That honor belongs to Rahm. However, he is 25th despite being 136th in putting and 130th in sand saves. List is long off the tee. His 311-yard driving average is good for sixth in the field. I understand if you don’t want to bet on List this week. He will probably miss the cut and make me look foolish, but all it takes is one week of his putter being better than terrible for him to be a contender.
