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In order to capture first-round glory, one is going to have to go low at Country Club of Jackson. Last season, a quartet of players found their way to the 8-under number, including the defending champion at the time, Sebastian Munoz.
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The weather in Jackson, Mississippi is not doing us any favors this week as we look to dive into potential first-round leader angles. With thunderstorms forecasted for the entirety of the day, not only is there no wave advantage, but there may not be a ton of golf played.
Because of this, we will look to split our selections up in an even manner. Those playing in the morning may have the opportunity to play on a wet golf course, which inadvertently widens fairways and makes pins a touch more accessible.
However, there could be a stop-and-go nature to their rounds, throwing off any rhythm garnered on Thursday. Which is why we will also have a few players in the afternoon, as the course will still be wet, and their rounds on Thursday, and possibly Friday, are less likely to be interrupted.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have priced the first-round leader market ahead of tomorrow’s Sanderson Farms Championship. Tournament-favorite, Sam Burns, sits atop the odds board with Sungjae Im and Will Zalatoris at +2800, while one of last year’s first-round leaders in Munoz is down at +5000.
Odds to Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
+2800: Sungjae Im, Sam Burns, Will Zalatoris
+3300: Corey Conners, Mito Pereira, Sergio Garcia, Si Woo Kim
+4000: Cameron Davis, Carlos Ortiz, Keegan Bradley
+5000: Aaron Wise, Cameron Tringale, Gary Woodland, Harold Varner III, Matthias Schwab, Seamus Power, Sebastian Munoz, Taylor Pendrith
To Lead After the First-Round (Odds Via PointsBet):
Peter Malnati (+8000):
If you’re talking Country Club of Jackson, you have to talk about Malnati. Even more so this year as the 2015 Sanderson Farm Champion appears to have found something in his swing. Finishing in a tie for 22nd at the Fortinet Championship, Malnati posted +3.1 Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, his best effort since the 2021 Farmers Insurance Open.
With full-tournament performances of +11.2, +4.8, and +9.2 SG: Putting at Country Club of Jackson, this could make for a deadly combination on Thursday. A runner-up a year ago, Malnati blitzed the field on Sunday, carding a final round of 9-under 63 and gaining just north of five-strokes on the greens. With such upside with the putter in hand, it is worth chancing the good vibes from a year ago - and 2015 - carry over into this week.
Henrik Norlander (+8000):
There is going to be some crossover to the Barbasol Championship in this article and it starts here. Anytime J.T. Poston plays well at a course, both Sedgefield Country Club and Country Club of Jackson are brought to my attention.
While we haven’t seen the big Swede since The Northern Trust, he is coming off a top-5 finish in last year’s Sanderson Farms Championship. Finishing with a 7-under 65, Norlander gained strokes with the putter in all four rounds. Single round performances of +0.7, +1.9, +2.7, and +1.9 SG: Putting led the Olympian to his best finish of the fall swing.
If that type of putting shows up on Thursday, he should have a real opportunity to post a low score. Before The Northern Trust, which followed a back injury I mind you, Norlander had gained strokes tee-to-green in six consecutive starts. This includes posting +7.6 SG: Approach in Kentucky, which could bode well for his chances in Mississippi.
Sung Kang (+10000):
Truth be told, Kang was on my shortlist for the Fortinet Championship and he nearly made me eat my words. Getting out of the gates fast, the South Korean sputtered coming home and eventually carded an opening 70. However, that Thursday in Napa marked the fifth consecutive first-round in which he gained strokes off-the-tee and on approach.
During this stretch, Kang has been able to parlay his strong ball-striking into first-rounds of 67 and 64. With the latter occurring at Sedgefield Country Club, perhaps more of the same could be in store at the Country Club of Jackson.
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Anirban Lahiri (+10000):
With players such as Sergio Garcia and Cameron Champ finding success at Country Club of Jackson, off-the-tee play inevitably comes to mind. If so, Lahiri, one of the most underrated drivers of the golf ball, provides plenty of first-round potential.
Posting positive results off-the-tee in seven straight tournaments to end his 2020-2021 campaign, Lahiri should love his prospects coming into this week. Making his third appearance at Country Club of Jackson, Lahiri has made the cut in both of his previous two outings.
At first glance, the putting looks woeful in Mississippi, however after looking a bit closer, I’d describe it more so as volatile. In his eight rounds here, he’s actually gained strokes on the greens in half of them, including such performances of +1.6, +1.9, and +2.1 SG: Putting. The issue are his poor rounds where he has lost –2.3, -3.8, and –4.4 SG: Putting.
At such a number, I am willing to put Lahiri’s putting to the test. He opened last season’s tournament with a 6-under 66 and the year before with a 3-under 69. If he is able to avoid one of those miserable days on the greens, then a round in the mid-60’s should be in reach.
Sam Ryder (+10000):
Having the week off, Ryder’s name was brought up plenty of times at Whistling Straits. Sharing the name with the man who the Ryder Cup is named after, perhaps my mind is playing tricks on me. However, after going to the 31-year-old in Napa, I feel inclined to continue my support in Jackson.
Three missed cuts in three appearances in the Sanderson Farms Championship is hardly anything to draw confidence from, but the recent iron-play is undeniable. Gaining strokes on approach in ten consecutive rounds, the putter may have turned the corner in the final round of the Fortinet Championship.
After struggling most of the week, the Stetson alum posted +2.1 SG: Putting on his final day on the North Course at Silverado Resort and Spa. Possibly signaling a return to his previous putting form, Ryder does feel most comfortable when he steps on Bermuda.
A Florida native, a break from the bumpy poa annua of California should be a welcomed sight. He’ll hit plenty of greens on Thursday, that is not in question, it will just be a matter of converting the opportunities.
Adam Schenk (+10000):
Four appearances, four made cuts. Schenk has clearly taken a liking to Country Club of Jackson and arrives this season boasting the ideal statistical profile for the course. Strong off-the-tee, competent with his irons, lacking from around-the-greens, and catching lightning in a bottle with the flat stick.
I won’t put too much stock into his performance at the Fortinet as he tends to do his worst work on poa annua. Even more so considering two of his past outings in Jackson saw Schenk post +7.4 and +4.3 SG: Putting.
If he can summon that type of putting on Thursday, we could be in business. He’s opened this championship the past two season with a pair of 3-under 69’s. Having struggled with his irons in those rounds, I reckon an improvement in that area of the bag will push him across the first-round finish line.
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