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As of late, the U.S. Open has favored a certain type of golfer. It’s been a bomber’s paradise over the last half decade, and while I don’t think that will necessarily change at Torrey Pines, I reckon it won’t be the only skillset needed to win this championship. While the likes of Dustin Johnson, Gary Woodland, Brooks Koepka, and Bryson DeChambeau all have their fair share of firepower, that was only one factor leading them to lifting the U.S. Open trophy.
Each of them also ranked inside the top-5 in greens in regulation (GIR) percentage for the week, something that every U.S. Open champion has done since 2014. That was when Martin Kaymer ran away from the field at Pinehurst No. 2, utilizing the Texas wedge from around the greens and getting up-and-down from every which way.
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He’s not the only player to scramble his way to a U.S. Open. While Woodland and Johnson both struck the ball well, they also ranked first in scrambling when they won their U.S. Open titles. Jordan Spieth did something similar in 2015 at Chambers Bay as he finished second in said category when he outlasted Johnson and Louis Oosthuizen.
All of this combined should give you a solid understanding of what it takes to win a U.S. Open. A player needs to be long off-the-tee, strong with his irons, and able to get up and down when necessary. Color me shocked that every aspect of your game need to be firing on all cylinders in order to bring home our national championship.
The oddsmakers at PointsBet Sportsbook have posted a number of head-to-head matchups ahead of Thursday’s U.S. Open. I will look to implement the sage wisdom that was outlined above as we target four matchups that I like to fall our way by week’s end.
Head-to-Head Matchups (Odds via PointsBet):
Patrick Reed (-125) over Hideki Matsuyama
Reed already feels like a U.S. Open champion. Grit, determination, a willingness to go the extra mile, Reed has all the makings of one. He has held the lead after the halfway point twice since 2015, only to fall victim to a horrible third-round. Most recent was last year at Winged Foot when he was in prime position through 45-holes only to barely break 45 on the back-nine on Saturday.
I’m uncertain if he has learned from those experiences, but Reed always deserves consideration at a major championship. He’s in excellent form and will look to join Jack Nicklaus and Tiger Woods as the only players to win a major championship at the same course where they had previously been victorious that season.
Matsuyama brings a lot of unknowns into this year’s U.S. Open. While his ball-striking numbers have been fine since his Masters victory, his typical poor putting has started to rear its ugly head once again. I don’t necessarily think he’ll have a terrible week at Torrey Pines as he clearly likes this course, but when matched up against Reed, I’d rather go 2018 Masters champion.
Collin Morikawa (-115) over Justin Thomas
It is hard to ignore Morikawa’s iron numbers, especially at a course like Torrey Pines that rewards strong iron-play, just look how Tiger Woods has done around this place. He’s gained north of 11-strokes tee-to-green in three of his last four starts and the putter appeared to find some life in his last start at Muirfield Village. Morikawa switched back to his traditional blade putter and looked right at home as he posted +5.4 SG: Putting.
Still, he isn’t the most reliable on and around-the-greens, and while that would normally be a concern, I think he’ll be able to out ball-strike Thomas this week. They currently possess a very similar statistical profile, with Morikawa recently building on his lead over Thomas as “best iron-player in the world.”
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Jordan Spieth (-110) over Justin Thomas
Childhood best friends turned bitter enemies. Not actually, but for our purposes this week, they will be pinned against each other. I love Spieth this week, and while typically crowded during major championship season, the island appears to be deserted. That only makes me like him more as the 2015 U.S. Open champion has arguably been the best golfer in the world since February.
Many will look at his Torrey Pines track record, his inconsistencies from off the tee and write him off, but you know who also has those red flags, Thomas. He’s been struggling to score as of late and that’s never how you want to come into a major championship, especially the U.S. Open. While the ball-striking numbers have been similar between the duo, this one will come down to short-game.
And that’s where our distinct advantage lies, as Spieth has shown to ability to hit the ball all over the map and still score. Thomas on the other hand is seriously going through it with the flat stick. The U.S. Open puts a tremendous amount of pressure on your putting and at this point in time, I don’t have any faith in Thomas on the greens.
Brooks Koepka (+110) over Xander Schauffele
Two of the trendiest picks in the outright markets, this selection makes a ton of sense for me. In Koepka’s last three U.S. Open appearances, only one man has beaten him and that was Woodland at Pebble Beach in 2019. He missed last year’s championship at Winged Foot due to injury and he is surely itching to get back, even more so with his best friend DeChambeau being the defending champion.
The rest of the world has finally caught on to go to Koepka in a major championship, regardless of form. A runner-up finish at the PGA Championship was due to poor putting and misjudged iron shots down the stretch on Sunday. He struck the ball nicely at the Palmetto Championship last week only to struggle on and around the greens. While I don’t think he’ll make enough putts to win this championship, he should make enough to edge out Schauffele.
Schauffele may hold a number of titles this week. No, not trophies, but names, such as “the hometown kid.” Schauffele thrives due to his underdog mentality, but even he has to admit that those days are long gone. Outside of his runner-up finish at this year’s Farmers Insurance Open, he’s actually been quite poor at Torrey Pines. That combined with his inconsistencies around-the-greens and I’ll happily back the two-time U.S. Open champion at plus money instead.
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