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The 2021 Breeders’ Cup Classic features the best dirt males in the world traveling the demanding distance of a mile-and-one-quarter at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club in Del Mar, California Saturday evening.
When handicapping any horse race, the first thing a person should do is assess the pace scenario.
The pace scenario of a race involves projecting where each horse and its rider will likely be positioned throughout the running of the event.
Typically, the faster the pace, the more likely it is that the horses racing toward the front early will falter late, setting things up for the deep closers to take advantage.
In races that feature slower paces, the horses that are forwardly placed early tend to have enough energy left for the stretch run, enabling them to fend off the threat of the deep closers and prevail.
This year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is a fascinating race to handicap, as not only are two of the more likely winners of the race, Knicks Go and Medina Spirit, extremely fast horses who like to be forwardly placed – they are confirmed “need the lead” types.
A “need the lead” type is exactly what it sounds like: a horse who will only win when they are allowed to dictate terms on the lead.
If this kind of horse does not procure the lead during the initial stages of the race, they are unlikely to offer anything close to their best performance.
Knowing this, the possibility of both Knicks Go and Medina Spirit hooking up to set incredibly fast fractions (the time measured for each ¼-mile run in a race) seems like a plausible one.
If this happens, there is a great possibility that they duel one another into submission, setting the stage for a horse to come from either a stalking position or from well off the early pace.
Horses like Hot Rod Charlie, Max Player, and Art Collector figure to be sitting just off the early leaders, as they have demonstrated an ability to be effective relaxing off a target before pouncing as the field rounds the far turn (the second of two turns).
A fast pace would also work to the benefit of a horse like Essential Quality, who more likely than not will wind up as the first or second choice in the wagering (if second-choice, Knicks Go would likely be the favorite).
The winner of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and this year’s Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes, Essential Quality will never be considered a brilliant racehorse, as he only does what needs to be done – and nothing beyond that.
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Stylistically, the beauty of a horse like Essential Quality – and the trait that makes him one of the best horses of the past two years – is his ability to adapt to any pace scenario.
If the pace is more moderate for whatever reason, the Brad Cox trainee has demonstrated an ability to be more forwardly placed early without sacrificing his late finish.
If things are supersonic on the front end, the son of Tapit is more than content to bide his time toward the rear beneath jockey Luiz Saez before commencing his bid.
Combined with his will to win, Essential Quality is in many ways the ideal racehorse.
Beyond the six horses previously mentioned, the remainder of the field (Express Train, Tripoli, and Stiletto Boy) all have running styles that should suit the running of this year’s Classic, however their talent level is questionable compared to the more fancied options.
As the old saying goes, “Pace makes the race.”
We should have a fairly good idea who will be considered a true threat to win this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic after the opening half-mile of the race has been completed at Del Mar on Saturday.
