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Kevin Gausman To Record A Win vs. DBacks
This will be the fourth time Kevin Gausman takes the mound versus Arizona, and he could not be much better.
In three starts versus the Diamondbacks, Gausman has a 3-0 record, 1.42 ERA, .200 OBA and 23 strikeouts to three walks in 19.0 innings.
Gausman’s three starts versus Arizona finished with scores of 8-0, 10-3 and 7-1.
Since Gausman last faced Arizona (8/4), the DBacks have gone 1-4, beating the Padres once. The Giants are 4-1 with the one loss in extra innings to the Brewers.
Obviously, these two teams are trending in opposite directions as San Francisco owns World Series aspirations and Arizona, not so much.
Over the past week, Arizona is hitting .215 (27th) with 67 strikeouts (5th-most) in six games. The DBacks offense used a five-run 6th inning and two scores in the top of the 9th to tie before San Francisco knocked across the winning run yesterday.
Outside of that game, Arizona has 15 runs scored in the previous five games. Arizona’s team total today is 2.5. That is telling in itself versus Gausman, who has allowed three earned runs in three starts versus the Diamondbacks.
The Giants are 13-2 (86.6%) on the ML versus the DBacks this season and 21-4 over the past two seasons (84%), per per NBC’s edge finder. Gausman is 4-0 and has at least six strikeouts and 5.0 innings pitched in that span versus Arizona.
Versus the NL West, in particular, the Giants are 32-17 this season on the ML (65.3%) and 24-8 as a favorite (75%). The Giants have the second-most home wins this season (36).
With Arizona losing seven of the last 10 road games and owning one of the MLB’s worst road records (14-44), San Francisco is set up to go 4-0 with Gausman on the mound this season against the DBacks.
NBC’s game model has the Giants as a strong pick on the ML, one of the top three ML picks on the board tonight.
Merrill Kelly will get the nod for Arizona and make his fifth start versus San Francisco this season. Kelly has 24.0 innings pitched with a 1-1 record, plus a 3.38 ERA and .209 OBA.
Kelly has one loss and no-decision start under his belt for his last two overall games, against the Giants and Dodgers, despite going 14.1 innings.
In 140 plate appearances against Kelly, the Giants have a .235 BA, .692 OPS, 34 hits, 22 strikeouts and 10 walks. Those numbers are worth backing from the Giants angle.
The ML is -270 and a parlay piece at that, so I will go with Gausman to exit the game with the lead after 5.0 innings and hope the bullpen hangs on from another Arizona rally.
Pick: Kevin Gausman To Record A Win (1u)
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Sandy Alcantara O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Padres
Going back to the well on Sandy Alcantara as his last performance was the worst of the season.
Alcantara was dismantled by the Rockies at Coors Field, allowing 10 hits, 10 earned runs, three homers, two walks and one strikeout in 3.2 innings and 75 pitches.
Alcantara will stay on the road and take on the Padres, who are fighting for playoff position in a loaded NL West Division. Alcantara has never pitched against the Padres -- tonight will be his first.
Since July, Alcantara has gone Under 4.5 strikeouts in 3-of-6 starts (50%).
In his last four starts (two July, two August), he owns a 7.32 ERA and .272 OBA. Over those four starts, Alcantara has 19 strikeouts in 19.2 innings, but 10 of those came against the Yankees.
Per statmuse, seven of the last 11 starting pitchers to face the Padres have gone Under 4.5 strikeouts (63.6%). Since the All-Star break, 13-of-22 starting pitchers went Under 4.5 Ks (59%), with two hitting five on the nose.
Alcantara also strikes out LHB less than RHB, and he should see at least four today. Adam Frazier, Eric Hosmer, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham are all lefties and great at the plate, so hopefully, no more than one strikeout comes from that group.
The Padres’ starting pitcher Ryan Weathers is also consistent at the plate, hitting .182 with seven strikeouts in 23 plate appearances, so one strikeout at most is appropriate.
The rest of the lineup will have to take care of Alcantara’s road ERA of 4.86 and OBA of .267 -- by far his worst numbers, home, away, day or night.
On the road, Alcantara averages 0.81 Ks/per inning and 0.89 during the day. However, in the past four road games, that number dipped to 0.71 and 0.73 in the last three.
Alcantara is 3-1 to the Under 4.5 Ks in his previous four road games. The lone over was five strikeouts at Baltimore.
In August, Alcantara saw his numbers increase after the Yankees start then drop following the Rockies’ performance. His monthly spin rate is at the lowest point of the season, per baseballsavant.com.
Alcantara is not generating spin, and his K% has suffered because of it. He has posted a 20% or fewer K% in eight of his last 13 starts, not good enough versus San Diego.
Alcantara’s three home runs allowed last game was a season-high and tied for the amount he let up in June and one more than all of July.
San Diego is hitting .289 (2nd) over the past week, struck out 46 times in six games (7.6 per game) and scored 31 runs (516). Despite playing one more game than four of the teams below them, the Padres have the ninth-fewest strikeouts in that span.
I will back Alcantara to stay Under five strikeouts against the Padres and bet on the bats of Slam Diego. I grabbed this for +105 and preferred not to go past -130 for this prop.
Pick: Sandy Alcantara Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
Kyle Gibson O/U 4.5 Strikeouts vs. Dodgers
Let me start by saying it will be hot and humid in Philadelphia, potentially giving Kyle Gibson and David Price problems in today’s matchup.
It will be 90-plus degrees most of the day with 50% humidity and a 100 degree feeling throughout the day -- play ball.
Gibson will be making his third start of the season for the Phillies after being traded from the Rangers.
Gibson’s first two starts with Philly featured a 2-0 record with a 2.13 ERA and .196 OBA. Those starts were against the Pirates and Mets.
Now, taking on the Dodgers, Gibson will have his hands full. Gibson posted eight strikeouts in his first two games with Philly and has 14 in the past four starts. This Dodgers team has impressive numbers against Gibson.
Mookie Betts only has three strikeouts in 22 AB with eight hits, while Albert Pujols has six hits and nine Ks in 31 AB. Cody Bellinger and Trea Turner have a combined six AB with only one strikeout (Turner), while Billy McKinney, Will Smith and Max Muncy have zero strikeouts in six AB.
A.J. Pollock, Pujols and David Price are the only Dodgers that cause real concern. Pollock has four Ks and no hits in six tries versus Gibson. Pujols was a DH yesterday versus Philly, while Pollock had the day off.
Price has two strikeouts and two hits in nine plate appearances this season, so he could potentially come through with one or fewer Ks too. Overall, going through the order a second time, Gibson’s numbers drop off, so it’s the first nine that will be the key.
Gibson’s OBA is .157 the first time through, then .258 the second and .270 the third. His walk and RBIs numbers get worse and Gibson’s OPS goes from .427 to beyond .700 both the second and third time through the order.
With runners on, Gibson has 31 strikeouts to 23 walks with a .259 OBA compared to 71 strikeouts, 24 walks and a .201 OBA with no one on base. The Dodgers need to be aggressive and they should at 4.0 games back of the Giants for the regular season NL West title and the chance to avoid playing in the wildcard.
NBC’s hit rate chart breaks down Gibson on the season and over his last three, five and 10 games.
Excluding the 7/13 date (All-Star game), Gibson is cashing the Under 4.5 Ks at a 66.7% clip over the last nine games (6/9), 75% in the past five (3/4) and 47.6% on the season (10/21). Since June, Gibson has five Unders and six Overs. Since July, he is 3-3.
One of the most impactful factors in backing the Under is his decline in spin rate with Philly. In his previous start versus the Mets, Gibson totaled three strikeouts and posted a 2078 RPM -- his lowest of the year, per baseballsavant.com.
Gibson averages 0.60 K/per innings in the last four starts and 0.65 in his first two with the Phillies. That will be a tough average to bring up against a Dodgers unit that has scored 28 runs in the past five games (5.6 per game) -- not to mention hitting .289 during that span (3rd).
Gibson’s K% ranks in the 24th percentile for the year and whiff% in the 46th percentile. He has not been a strikeout pitcher and versus a hot Dodgers lineup in a very hot and humid environment, plus a friendly hitters ballpark -- I will back Gibson to get fewer than five Ks.
I grabbed this at +120 odds on PointsBet and would play this out to -130.
Pick: Kyle Gibson Under 4.5 Strikeouts (1u)
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