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We’ve come to the start of the World Series between the Houston Astros and Atlanta Braves, and there’s a ton to unpack here. Houston is making its third trip to the Fall Classic in five years while the Braves are here for the first time since 1999. While it’s a hard one to call, I do have a play on this game and will waste no more time in getting into it now.
Atlanta Braves (+120) vs. Houston Astros (-140) Total: 8
Let’s get the first thing out of the way here. The Astros lost Lance McCullers for the rest of the season to a forearm strain, and will need to start Framber Valdez in Game 1 here against the seasoned Charlie Morton. The righty has been dynamite in his postseason career, including some big starts for the Astros when they won the World Series in 2017. He was the man to record the final out of Game 7 against the Dodgers, earning the win with four solid innings.
For his career, Morton owns a 3.45 postseason ERA in 75 2/3 innings. This postseason, he’s pitched to a 3.77 ERA with one fantastic start against the Brewers followed by two disappointments. Morton lasted just 3 1/3 innings on short rest in Game 4 against the Brewers then uncharacteristically walked six batters in Game 3 of the NLCS. Still, he’s got a good track record and should be trusted here. That’s particularly true considering Morton’s success on the road this year, where he is 8-3 with a 3.06 ERA in 15 starts.
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Valdez was in the midst of a horrific postseason before he toed the rubber for Game 5 of the ALCS against the Red Sox. He’d allowed six earned runs on 13 hits in the two starts prior, but proceeded to toss eight innings of one-run ball with five strikeouts.
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The sinker-baller might be a good matchup for an Atlanta offense that ranked second-to-last in ground ball rate this season. While things change when there’s a great sinker coming at you, I have enough faith here in Atlanta, which has been done a brilliant job of lifting the ball.
In a hitter’s park, I think these Braves bats could become lethal. They have had to endure great pitching against the Brewers and Dodgers, and will finally see some arms that are a little easier to handle here. Houston’s bullpen has been great this postseason, but its starting pitching has not. I’m willing to sell the one-start sample here with Valdez and look at the larger body of work. He allows a ton of hard contact, and against an offense that’s been adept at getting that contact into the air, I think there could be trouble.
Edge: Braves +120
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