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Yesterday, we took a look at the teams to watch this weekend and the rest of the College Baseball tournament. As promised, we will be getting a closer peek at the teams to stay away from. Grab yourself a Taylor Ham (No, it’s not pork roll!), egg and cheese on an everything bagel. Don’t you dare forget to add salt, pepper and ketchup. Get comfy. Let’s get faded.
Ole Miss Rebels
For a hot second, the Rebels were the No.1 team in the country this year before the Volunteers threw them a beating in late March. Even after that, they still hung around as a top-five team for a minute, but it lasted about as long as most people’s New Year’s resolutions to work out. Fast forward, Ole Miss was genuinely the last team selected to make the tournament, which is shocking considering how they started and what kind of talent they have. If they showed promise this year, why fade them?
Despite the Rebs’ above-average lineup featuring tater mashers like Tim Elko, Jacob Gonzalez, and Kevin Graham, there have been some inconsistencies throughout the second half of the year. Overall, this is a very good offense with a lot of power (91 HRs) that I don’t take many exceptions to. The problem though comes with their largely horrendous pitching staff.
Although he did not open the season as the Friday guy, Dylan Delucia usurped that role after a dominant run from mid-April to mid-May, posting four quality starts out of five tries. Since then, it’s been a tough scene; six innings, five earned runs and seven walks in the last two starts. Even if Delucia regains his composure, there is not much to count on after him. Derek Diamond was originally supposed to be “the guy,” but his 6.57 ERA had other ideas. Despite some recent success by freshman lefty Hunter Elliott, I believe the pitching will be the reason why this team flops. The hitting will have to significantly make up for it if they hope to have a chance, which is a very slight possibility, but unlikely.
Ole Miss is in the same region as Miami (Coral Gables), as the three seed. On Day 1, they have a tough draw against the 37-23 Arizona Wildcats. In my opinion, Zona is good, but not great. They have a top-heavy lineup and a pretty good ace in Southpaw Garrett Irvin. With that being said, I think it’s likely the Wildcats come away with the victory. In the event they don’t, Ole Miss will probably have to beat Miami. Unless their pitching does a complete 180, or the offense averages eight runs per game, this bracket looks to be too tough for them to make it out alive.
Arkansas Razorbacks
For a team that ranked No.3 in the nation just a couple of weeks ago, they dropped, and they dropped FAST. After a brutal showing in the SEC Tournament, the Razorbacks sit at No.23. I would like to point out that I went 6-3 in college picks last week with two of my losses coming as a result of backing ARK, but it really is nothing personal. To me, this team is just good, but it’s not a needle mover.
The offense, on paper at least, in its entirety is rock solid. They have a few boppers in there like Brayden Webb (14 HRs), Brady Slavens (13 HRs), and Cayden Wallace (11 HRs). You could even throw in catalyst Chris Lanzilli with his .318 average and seven bombs. The issue has been a lack of consistency lately and poor situational hitting. In addition to being stymied by not just some of the better pitchers they’ve seen, it’s also been against some weaker opponents. In terms of their situational hitting, they have left 34 runners on base over their last six games. You can’t let opportunities like that go by the wayside at this stage.
It’s pitching-wise is where it gets interesting. Their bullpen is actually pretty good, which has not been like most of the other teams we have seen this season. If the game is close in the later innings, this is the strong point of the Razorbacks’ staff. The problem has been their starters. I find that odd considering how good ace Connor Noland was until about the time May started. Noland was the one sure thing in the rotation, but after his recent struggles that include three straight outings with five-plus earned runs, it’s tough to call upon him. Hagen Smith (4.86 ERA) and Jaxon Wiggins (5.83 ERA) have been horrendous, so that’s out. The only guy who has been successful is opener/reliever hybrid, Will McEntire (3.07 ERA). If the starters allow four or five runs in the first half, the offense has not been good enough to recover.
Due to the success, they had this year, Arkansas was still good enough to grab the No. 2 seed in the Stillwater Region. They’ll meet the 41-19 Grand Canyon first. Just because you probably have never heard of the Antelopes before doesn’t mean they won’t bite you. Not only do they have a couple of good starting arms in Nick Hull and Daniel Avitia, but that offense can bang out. Led by Tayler Aguilar, this GCU team batted .309 with a .861 OPS. I’m curious to see how the level of competition plays out here, but I think the Razorbacks are definitely live to lose this one. Even if they win, they probably have to deal with Oklahoma St. on Day 2, so I can’t back a limited team that has gone ice cold to advance.
Florida Gators
Full disclosure, this is the one I am least confident about. If you told me the Gators would lose not only their ace, but one of the best pitchers in the country in Hunter Barcos back in April - who was likely to be the first pitcher selected in this Summer’s MLB Draft - and still find a way to make the SEC Finals and the NCAA Tournament of 64, I might’ve said to you that you had one too many spicy Bloody Mary’s. Nevertheless, here we are. Why would I consider fading a 39-22 SEC team that has roared down the stretch?
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Like I said, that is why this is the one I am least confident about because I actually like Florida. Their offense has SEC Co-Player of the Year in leadoff man Wyatt Langford (.363 avg, 23 bombs, 1.179 OPS). You also have Jud Fabian with his 23 bazooka blasts and 1.034 OPS. OH, and can’t forget about Sterlin Thompson and BT Riopelle who both cleared over a .300 batting average, 10 longballs, and a .950 OPS each. With four legit weapons, and a couple of other solid producers waiting in the wings what does their staff look like without Barco?
It absolutely turned on a dime since Barco left the game against Vandy. Brandon Sproat has stepped up admirably as the de facto top pitcher with his five quality starts out of the last six outings. Even Brandon Neely has been pretty good with a 3.58 ERA. The pen also has a couple of good arms.
Having managed to grab their own Gainesville Regional, the Gators actually have some competition in their part of the bracket. First up, they get 42-17 Central Michigan. Although it should be a layup if they get past them, CM has a few guys that can turn the tide in that matchup. Then, of course, UF either gets Oklahoma (likely) or Liberty. Of course, the Sooners were on my list of teams to watch so I find it probable that they emerge from this region. If we get the Florida vs. Oklahoma battle, that will be a great one to watch.
Vanderbilt Commodores
I absolutely love the Vandy Boys. They are College Baseball royalty. One of the true blue bloods of the sport. Basically, the New England Patriots of this game. After being ranked for the first half of the year, the second-half struggles were too much, which directly resulted in them tumbling out of the top 25 for most of the last couple of months. After being in the last two College World Series Championships (won in 2019, lost in 2021), is there any hope for the Commodores?
It’s a slippery slope, your honor. On one hand, you have a pretty potent lineup composed of more speed than power. Led by the kid I like to refer to as “This Generation’s Carl Crawford in CF Enrique Bradfield Jr, Vandy has been in the thick of things all season long. For reference (if you want to laugh), Bradfield is 43-43 in stolen bases this season, which brings his two-year Vanderbilt career mark to 90-96. That’s just outrageous. On the other hand, you have a pitching staff that probably makes you want to pull your hair out.
Aside from recent strides made by freshman lefty Carter Holton, there have been a lot of trials and tribulations in this Vandy rotation as of late. The guy who was supposed to be the ace, Chris McElvain has gotten rocked over his last few outings, ballooning his ERA up to a beefy 4.54. Though he had some very good starts this year, since probably early May, you can make the case that’s when Holton became their number one guy. Then we have a mid-week/turned weekend guy, Devin Futrell. Futrell’s stats are misleading since most of his damage came against weaker opponents, but since he started going up against the big boys, things have been a tad different. Combined with very few reliable bullpen options, the pitching is likely to be the team’s downfall.
As the two seed in the Corvallis Regional, Vanderbilt could have a tough time even getting out of this region. First up would be the top-heavy 36-18 San Diego Toreros. Realistically, I don’t think the Toreros are an elite team, but they have enough boppers and solid arms to upset the ‘Dores. I’d potentially look to fade them on Day 1, but if they manage to get past San Diego, then there’s no way I have them getting past Oregon State (likely). The Beavers have been a top team in the country all season. This tough draw probably leads to a quick exit for the ice-cold Vandy Boys.
Take a taste.
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