UFC 273 is highlighted by three fantastic matchups on the main card. We have the UFC Featherweight Championship on the line when Alexander Zolkanovski faces Chan Sung Jung “Korean Zombie”. In the co-main event, we have the UFC Bantamweight rematch between Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan. The most anticipated fight on the card is the return of Khamzat Chimaev when he faces off with Gilbert Burns. This card is stacked but we also have some betting gems on the undercard that I will point out below. In this article, I will highlight the value I found in a few other fights on this card. Follow me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC for my tracked bets. Feel free to DM me if you want my picks for any fight on the card and my thoughts on any other props or parlays you’re interested in playing.
*** Fight: Piera Rodriguez vs Kay Hansen
** Prop Play: Kay Hansen Moneyline (+100) on PointsBet
Analysis: Kay Hansen has her back against the wall after two straight loses. She needs to fight to her strengths here vs Piera Rodriguez. Luckily for Kay, her strength is Piera’s weakness. Kay should grapple, wrestle and play position over submission on the ground. She will give herself the best chance to win and an opportunity for a submission.
*** Fight: Aleksei Oleinik vs Jared Vanderaa
** Prop Play: Aleksei Oleinik by 1st round Submission (+275) on PointsBet
Analysis: Aleksei Oleinik has a clear path to victory. He needs to close distance by throwing his overhand right hand. Once he closes distance he’ll want to drag Vanderaa to the ground and look to lock up a submission. Oleinik is live for a club and sub finish if he can connect with his overhand right.
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*** Fight: Mickey Gall vs Mike Malott
** Prop Play: Mickey Gall/Under 2.5 Rounds (+285) on PointsBet
Analysis: Mickey Gall is a developing striker with gas tank issues. I favor Gall in this matchup because of the inexperience on this level. Gall will be aggressive and empty that gas tank in rounds one and two. That aggression could lead to victory so the value is on Mickey Gall. Gall is clearly the better submission grappler if it gets to the ground.
*** Fight: Ian Garry vs Darian Weeks
** Prop Play: Ian Garry/Under 2.5 Rounds (+138) on PointsBet
Analysis: Ian Garry is a hype train. I like his chances to finish this fight vs Darian Weeks. Garry is better than Weeks on the feet in the striking exchanges and on the ground. He can take this fight anywhere he wants it to go and win. Darian Weeks is the perfect opponent to give Garry the fight he wants in the octagon. He will have his chance to sit back and counter his way to a finish.
*** Fight: Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling
** Prop Play: Petr Yan/Over 2.5 Rounds (-136) on PointsBet
Analysis: Petr Yan will settle into this fight by round three and control the striking exchanges from that point forward. Yan is more durable and possesses more punching power. Sterling will use his movement early and will attempt to strike with volume to get ahead on the scorecards. Yan will pressure more and more as the fight moves along. His pressure in rounds four and five will be too much for Sterling. This fight should get into the late rounds with Yan pulling ahead.
*** Fight: Khamzat Chimaev vs Gilbert Burns
** Prop Play: Khamzat Chimaev 1st Round KO/TKO (+280)
** Prop Play: Khamzat Chimaev 2nd Round KO/TKO (+750)
Analysis: The people’s main event puts Khamzat Chimaev vs Gilbert Burns. Burns is a high-level submission grappler so a more likely outcome is Chimaev to strike and hurt Burns on the feet during striking exchanges. These striking exchanges should put him in position to finish the fight within two rounds. Take a unit and put 65% on the Chimaev round 1 KO/TKO prop and 35% on the Chimaev round 2 KO/TKO prop.
