UFC London is going to be electric. We have at least eight fighters with direct ties to England if these 13 fights stay intact. This is the sophomore effort of fan-favorite Paddy Pimblett who is becoming the British equivalent of Conor McGregor. Fight fans in London were waiting for the return of the UFC so this atmosphere will set the tone for a fantastic day of fights -- and I do mean a day of fights since the prelims start at 1 PM ET and the main card is slated to start at 4 PM ET.
Here are three UFC London bets I like with good odds attached to them:
Cory McKenna vs. Elise Reed and Nikita Krylov vs. Paul Craig
Analysis: Cory McKenna and Elise Reed will exchange on the feet and the striking exchanges will be close. McKenna has the advantage on the ground and that is where this fight will be won and possibly finished as McKenna will look to get this fight to the ground each round. She may be able to lock up a submission, but at the very least she will win rounds with top control. Taking McKenna on the Money Line opens this parlay.
The second leg of this parlay is Nikita Krylov vs. Paul Craig. I do favor Krylov to get the win here, but I prefer to play the fight to finish for either fighter. Paul Craig has only been to the scorecards one time in 12 UFC fights. Krylov has been to the scorecards in his last three fights, but that was against high-level competition and they played it safer over the course of three rounds. I do not expect Craig to allow Krylov to play this safe. Craig will set the tone in this matchup with his kill or be killed mentality. This fight will finish.
The play: Cory McKenna ML & Krylov/Craig Inside the Distance (+110)
Ilia Topuria vs Jai Herbert
Analysis: This line is too good to be true. This prop has more value baked into it than I have seen in a while. Jai Herbert is the better striker with a six-inch height advantage and an eight-inch reach advantage. However, Ilia Topuria has a clear advantage on the ground with his wrestling and grappling submission skillset. Herbert has 30% takedown defense and Topuria averages 3.35 takedowns per 15 minutes and 3.4 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Topuria has a decisive path of victory by grounding his opponent and working his submissions.
The play: Ilia Topuria by Submission (+120) on PointsBet
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Paddy Pimblett vs Rodrigo Vargas
Analysis: Paddy Pimblett has every advantage in this fight from a physical standpoint and his level of skill. However, Rodrigo Vargas has a puncher’s chance in this matchup and he has the power to finish this fight if he can connect on Paddy’s chin. Paddy was rocked in his only UFC fight vs Luigi Vendramini, but was able to recover and get the KO/TKO finish. Paddy’s clear path to victory is to use his grappling to drag Vargas to the ground and submit him. The only concern is if Paddy gets hyped up by the local crowd and looks for the knockout, while putting himself at risk. This fight was scheduled because Paddy is supposed to win here in front of the home crowd and get that huge pop. He should finish this fight.
This one has certified barnburner written ALL over it 🔥@TheUFCBaddy vs @KazulaVargasUFC
— UFC (@ufc) March 18, 2022
[ #UFCLondon | Tomorrow | Main Card 4pmET | LIVE on @ESPNPlus ] pic.twitter.com/FgCiQCZYZl
The Play: Paddy Pimblett/Under 2.5 Rounds (-132) on PointsBet
Follow me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC for my tracked bets. Feel free to DM me if you want my picks for any fight on the card and my thoughts on any other props or parlays you’re interested in playing.
Other Bets:
*** Gunnar Nelson by Submission (-114) on Pointsbet
