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‘m offering up another week of five bets in my betting package with prop plays and parlays. This card is in Las Vegas at the UFC Apex and the small cage. Follow me on Twitter to get any plays I may tweet out on Saturday, fight news, and my takes on the card. You can find me on Twitter @CombatSportsNBC and please also follow Ike Feldman @IkeFeldman, my Combat Sports partner for NBC Sports Edge Betting @NBCSportsEdge.
- Prop Play #1: Montel Jackson to Win in Round 3 or Decision +148
Montel Jackson has clear physical advantages including a 5-inch height advantage, an 8-inch reach advantage, and most likely a weight advantage since Buys routinely fights at 125 pounds so he’ll be coming up in weight for this matchup. Jackson also has huge hands, similar in size to Francis N’Gannou, the heavyweight champ. Jackson is a slow starter and is calculated in his attack. I expect Buys to use a wrestling-based approach that could slow the pace. Jackson is the superior fighter so this prop has value. [[ad:athena]]
- Prop Play #2: Raquel Pennington by Points +145
I really like Rocky Pennington in this matchup. She’s tough and grinds out rounds. She is a boxer and should stay even on the feet with Pannie Kianzad. Rocky will also push Kianzad up against the cage and use the takedown when it presents itself. Rocky Pennington should cruise to victory with this gameplan and recency bias has a lot to do with this line.
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- Two Leg Parlay #1: Pays -124
1st Leg Erin Blanchfield -375
2nd Leg Maness vs Gravely, Fight to Start Round 3 - Yes -233
I played Erin Blanchfield in two parlays this week. I like Blanchfield’s skills and I really don’t like what I saw on tape from Sarah Alpar. Alpar got beat up really badly by Jessica Rose-Clark and Blanchfield should be able to win rounds with her attack.
The 2nd leg of this parlay is Nate Maness vs Tony Gravely starts round 3. I really like this fight and I’m looking forward to watching the chess match here. Gravely carries a 6.11 takedown average per 15 minutes. Maness is tough and durable. He also has a good gas tank and will look for submissions in the scramble. I see this fight getting into round 3 before Gravely’s gas tank could factor into the outcome.
Here are the Get Up & Hold Down times for #UFCVegas37:
— The Monkmatician (@MonkMMAtics) September 13, 2021
Shortest Get Up Time (sec):
3) Antonio Arroyo 59.33
2) Montel Jackson 56.00
1) Gustavo Lopez 42.92
Shortest Hold Down Time (sec):
3) Tony Gravely 52.50
2) Ion Cutelaba 37.79
1) Gustavo Lopez 34.00#MMATwitter #GamblingTwitter
- Two Leg Parlay #2: Pays +104
1st Leg Smith vs Spann, Fight to Start Round 2 -250
2nd Leg Buckley vs Arroyo Under 2.5 Rounds -218
I expect Anthony Smith to show patience in this five-round main event to cash the first leg of this parlay. Smith was successful vs Jimmy Crute fighting behind his jab and using the calf kick. He’ll want to keep his distance from Ryan Spann so we should see round 2.
In the 2nd leg of this parlay, Buckley and Arroyo are both finishers. Arroyo’s last two fights went to a decision so that may be keeping this line down. I expect a finish, either Buckley connects for a KO/TKO or Arroyo via submission if he gets his opponent to the ground.
- Two Leg Parlay #3: Pays +107
1st Leg Erin Blanchfield -375
2nd Leg Tsarukyan to Win in Round 3 or Decision -157
I gave my Erin Blanchfield thoughts in Parlay #1. I’m going back to the well here in this 1st leg.
I’m banking on Arman Tsarukyan to use his wrestling to wear on his opponent and win the decision. Giagos is tough and durable so we should see the late rounds.
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