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One of the most storied races in NASCAR history, the World 600 – now known as the Coke 600 – has showcased about every type of finish possible. Sometimes there are dominant runs, sometimes the finish is contested mano-a-mano in the final laps, and sometimes this race is won by the driver who employs the best strategy.
Jeff Gordon‘s first career win came in the 1994 Coke 600 with tire strategy. Austin Dillon won in 2017 on fuel mileage. When drivers and crews get imaginative at the end of a race, predicting the outcome is difficult and that means dark horses often get an opportunity to frolic alongside the studs.
Compound that with the fact that the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks have made up the majority of an annual calendar for a couple of decades now and races at Charlotte Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Las Vegas Motor Speedway, and Kansas Speedway are an interesting mix of predictability surprises – and no one ever really knows what is going to happen until the final caution waves.
Dillon’s (+5000) win in the 2017 edition of this race makes him a driver who must be evaluated every time the series rolls into Charlotte, but it is not the only thing that makes him a solid longshot. He had to be able to make that gamble work – and to that end, he had to have a car capable of running in the front half of the pack. Dillon winds up being a regular go-to choice for the dark horse article on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks because his last 13 races on them all ended between sixth and 15th. At 50/1, he’s worth a modest bet for the outright win, but you should cover that with bets for a lesser position. On another sportsbook, Dillon is listed at +600 for a top-five.
We played around with making Kevin Harvick (+3000) a favorite and that has not worked out very well. His struggles last week at Texas – a track on which he should easily have earned a top-10 – gives us a little pause, but we still believe it’s only a matter of time before he breaks his long winless streak. Of course, one could go broke making weekly wagers in anticipation of that. It bears noting that Harvick also struggled last year and still earned four top-fives in nine races on this track type. So far in 2022, he has failed to crack the top 10.
Joey Logano (+1800) is another driver who cannot be ignored on tracks that take the complete package of driver, crew, and engine builder. Even his marquee name and the famed strength of Team Penske is not enough to land him among the top 10 ranked in betting lines. At 18/1, he sits 11th on that chart. One reason is that he has only two top-10s on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks in the last 11 attempts and an average of 16.6. He should be watched in practice and evaluated.
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Charlotte has a rich history of first-time winners. Gordon and Dillon both got their first victories on this track as did eight others, including NASCAR legends David Pearson and Buddy Baker. We have toyed with making Tyler Reddick one of the Best Bets’ top-10 and could readily have done that again this week. There is only so much room at the top and Reddick has only one top-five on this track type in the past two seasons. He has seven top-10s in his last eight attempts on them, however, and that puts him in a position to roll the dice if needed.
A rising tide elevates all the ships in a harbor. The 23XI organization’s win two weeks ago at Kansas for Kurt Busch (+2000) makes him and Bubba Wallace (+9000) both worthy of consideration as dark horses for the Coke 600. Busch has the win, but Wallace has been more consistently at the head of the pack in the final stage of competition this year, so you will need to decide which of those two factors means the most to you. Another factor to consider is their relative lines. Since you have an extra 7000 points to work with for Wallace, the return is much better for essentially the same risk of guessing who will have the right strategy.
Based on Chris Buescher‘s (+10000) three top-10s on unrestricted, similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks last year, he and Brad Keselowski (+8000) should also be considered dark horses to finish that well. Keselowski knows what it feels like to win at Charlotte with a pair of 600 victories in 2013 and 2020, but he is still getting accustomed to a car that does not handle as well as he is accustomed. Buescher has been operating with this power band for quite some time and has three top-10s in his last four Charlotte races.
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Dark Horses for the 2022 AdventHealth 400 [Kansas 1]
Pennzoil 400 [Las Vegas 1]
2021 Coke 600 [Charlotte]
