Each week before writing these profiles, we run several scripts against a 675,000 record database. Those scripts provide snapshots of a given track, track type, and the most recent races. A quick glance at the spreadsheet it provides a visual cue as to how well longshots have performed in the past.
This week, among the 40-ish drivers listed with recent results, only one top-10 shows up below the halfway mark. There are another couple of drivers on the cusp, but the bottom line is that this is not a track that is at all kind to longshots.
Dark horses come in different shades, however. Simply because there aren’t a bunch of them, doesn’t mean that the ones who exist won’t provide value. Drivers who normally finish in the 20s might be capable of earning top-15s and provide decent value in fantasy games. Drivers who typically finish in the teens can find the right setup and score the occasional top-10, which makes them relevant to bettors.
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When he was with Joe Gibbs Racing, Erik Jones (+25000) might not rightly be classified a dark horse. He developed an immediate affinity for this track and finished fifth in his first attempt. He was eighth as a sophomore. It is rare to see a driver win as early as he did, but he took the 2019 edition of this race in his third attempt. Last year – still with Gibbs – he finished eighth, fifth, and fourth. That didn’t help much this spring. In equipment with more modest funding, Jones finished 18th. This is a driver’s track, however, and Jones is capable of challenging for a top-10.
In 2019, Daniel Suarez (+25000) swept the top 15 on rough-surfaced tracks with top-10s at Bristol Motor Speedway, an 11th at Darlington, and a worst of 14th at Dover International Speedway. Last year, he struggled to score only one top-20 and that carried over to Darlington this spring. Suarez was 23rd in the Goodyear 400, but he rebounded to score top-10s at Dover and Nashville Superspeedway. To find a dark horse with plus odds for a top-10, you are going to have to take some risks.
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This is a track that rewards toughness and few have more of that than Ryan Newman (+30000). In his last 18 Darlington attempts, he has a top-10 percentage of .556. His top-15 average is .778 and that means he is almost always on the cusp of breaking into the single digits. Newman enters the weekend with a perfect record of top-15s last year and a 10th-place finish at Darlington this spring. Equally important, he drew a top-10 number in last week’s Daytona lottery and has a little extra spring to his step.
When a driver finds the groove immediately like Jones or Kyle Larson back in 2014, it usually signals that he will be strong for quite some time. Chase Briscoe (+25000) didn’t quite crack the top-10, but he came close with an 11th-place result in his inaugural attempt this spring. This race may be challenging because he is going to have to fend off 16 playoff drivers and they will dominate the top of the order, but he is worth consideration.
Matt DiBenedetto (+8000) has a worst Darlington finish of 21st in his last five attempts. Two of these efforts landed in the top 10 and one other was a top-15. Time is running out on the 2021 season and he still does not know what next year looks like. Every race is a job interview for DiBenedetto and he cannot afford to put a wheel wrong in the final 10 weeks.
Tyler Reddick (+4000) is the Cinderella Story of the playoffs. He was the final driver to make his way in on points and a big part of the reason for that was a solid string of top-10 in late spring and summer. His strength has not been a fluke because Reddick has been among the top 10 in the Power Rankings for 15 weeks. For perspective: That is better than Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, or Kurt Busch.
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Dark Horses for the Goodyear 400 (Darlington)
Ally 400 (Nashville)
Drydene 400 (Dover)
