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Line Moves
Christopher Bell (+850) and Tyler Reddick (+850) began the week ranked well outside the top 10 on the PointsBet Sportsbook, but with impressive qualification runs, they leapt to third in the rankings. Qualification continues to be a key indicator for the traders and while it is not always the best predictive bit of information we have, as long as NASCAR limits practice severely, it is about the best we have.
Reddick has been one of our top dark horses for quite a while. It is only a matter of time before he finds Victory Lane and we’re betting it comes sometime this season. Notably, neither he nor Bell have won in 2022 and this is an opportunity for an 11th new winner in 13 races, which will continue to put pressure on the drivers outside the top 16 who have already won.
Both Reddick and Bell scored one top-10 at Kansas Speedway last year; neither scored a top-five.
Kyle Larson (+550) showed a minor line move after qualifying among the top-10. He had 50 points shaved from his total. That is a huge difference from the +225 he showed before the fall Hollywood Casino 400 – a race that he won. His current line is in keeping with how he closed this race last year at +650.
Kyle Busch (+725) had 125 points shaved from his total. His sixth-place starting position should not have moved the needle much one way or the other, except that it confirms the strength we believed he was going to show. As the defending winner of this race, it is likely that Smart Money has slowly been changing the opinion of the traders.
Ross Chastain (+1000) failing to advance to the final 10 so that he had a shot at the pole seems to have impacted the opinion at PointsBet and they added 100 points to his line. Chastain was a moderately good bet to win his third race, so if you were on the fence, that extra dollar per unit won’t hurt any.
Chase Elliott (+1100) was one of our top-five picks on this week’s Cheat Sheet and neither his practice times nor qualification effort changed our opinion much. In this race last year, he advanced from 17th to fifth. His win in 2018 also began outside the top 10 in 13th, so there is no reason to worry about his 14th-place start this week.
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Four drivers are clogged up at +1200 this week and each of them had a line move to get there.
Martin Truex, Jr. (+1200) had 200 points added to his line despite scoring a top-10 starting position. He rolls off the grid ninth.
Denny Hamlin (+1200) qualified 18th, but will give up that position to drop to the back after fixing the undercarriage of his Toyota. He was one of several drivers who lost a left rear tire in practice and drug the car coming to the pits. His line move is 400 points higher than at the start of the week. With only one top-10 this year, he is still a risky bet.
Ryan Blaney (+1200) also lost a left rear tire in practice, but he did not damage his car and will get to hang onto his 10th-place starting position. He was listed at +1100 for this race last year.
William Byron (+1200) was not as fast as his Hendrick Motorsports teammates Larson or Alex Bowman, but he lines up alongside Elliott on Row 7. He enters the AdventHealth 400 with a five-race, top-10 streak at Kansas, but only one of these was a top-five.
Kevin Harvick (+3500) was mediocre in practice and he posted only the 23rd-fastest time in qualification. That could be hidden good news. If you placed a bet at the start of the week based on his four-race top-five streak and five consecutive Kansas top-10s, cover it with another of equal value. He finished eighth or better in four of seven races when he started between 17th and 26th.
Rank | Driver | Current Odds | Opening Odds | Change | 2021 Kansas 2 |
1. | 550 | 600 | -50 | 225 | |
2. | 725 | 850 | -125 | 800 | |
3. | 850 | 1600 | -750 | 3000 | |
3. | 850 | 2500 | -1650 | 3500 | |
5. | 1000 | 900 | 100 | 12500 | |
6. | 1100 | 775 | 325 | 850 | |
7. | 1200 | 1000 | 200 | 900 | |
7. | 1200 | 800 | 400 | 675 | |
7. | 1200 | 1300 | -100 | 1100 | |
7. | 1200 | 1000 | 200 | 1000 | |
|
|
|
|
|
|
11. | 1400 | 1600 | -200 | 3300 | |
12. | 2000 | 4000 | -2000 | 4000 | |
12. | 2000 | 1200 | 800 | 1800 | |
14. | 3000 | 6600 | -3600 |
| |
15. | 3500 | 1800 | 1700 | 1800 | |
16. | 4000 | 3500 | 500 | 30000 | |
16. | 4000 | 3300 | 700 | 25000 | |
18. | 5000 | 8000 | -3000 | 20000 | |
19. | 6600 | 7000 | -400 | 9000 | |
20. | 8000 | 7000 | 1000 | 20000 | |
21. | 10000 | 6000 | 4000 | 1600 | |
21. | 10000 | 9000 | 1000 | 25000 | |
23. | 20000 | 15000 | 5000 | 30000 | |
23. | 20000 | 20000 | 0 | 40000 | |
25. | 25000 | 15000 | 10000 | 20000 | |
25. | 25000 | 20000 | 5000 | 50000 | |
27. | 35000 | 40000 | -5000 |
| |
28. | 40000 | 25000 | 15000 |
| |
29. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
29. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
29. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
29. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
29. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
29. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
29. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
| |
29. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 |
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2022 Pennzoil 400 [Las Vegas 1]
2021 Hollywood Casino 400 [Kansas 2]
Weekend Update [AdventHealth 400]
