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Line Moves
With the Echo Park Texas Grand Prix at the Circuit of the Americas occurring on a new track for NASCAR, practice was held on Saturday. That contributed to line movements for all but one driver ranked among the top 10 and three drivers in the top 20.
Practice was held in the rain, but the track slowly dried as the day progressed. By the end of the Xfinity event, in which Kyle Busch scored his 98th career victory, the track was dry. The forecast for Sunday is much the same and the field could experience a mix of conditions. The team that adapts best will win.
Chase Elliott (+225) opened as the favorite and held that distinction through Saturday evening. His line movement was slight with an adjustment of -15 points, but since the odds were so low, that suggests some significant cash exchanged hands. Still, those odds are higher than he saw for the first road course race of the season. Elliott was listed at +190 for the Daytona International Speedway Road course.
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Second-ranked Martin Truex Jr. opened at +480 and remained there into the weekend. He held that spot despite the fact that he was 23rd on the speed chart in the one practice session held. Two of the drivers ahead of him on this chart, AJ Allmendinger (+2500) and James Davison (+50000), barely got any track time as NASCAR’s inspection was slowed by the weather. Watch closely Sunday morning for any late-race movement if Truex qualifies poorly and hold onto your wager unless the Return on Investment (ROI) improves.
Busch (+1000) not only won the Xfinity race, he posted a solid time in practice – landing fourth on the chart. This helped him leapfrog teammate Denny Hamlin and Team Penske driver Ryan Blaney to become the third-favored driver. Most of his struggles in the past two years have come because NASCAR has not allowed him to practice, so the move of -400 may be well-deserved.
After Hamlin (+1200) posted only the 16th-fastest time in practice, the traders at PointsBet Sportsbook were encouraged to sweeten the pot by 350 points. We didn’t think he deserved the third-ranking at the start of the week at under 10/1. This is a much better line and worthy of a modest wager.
William Byron (+1500) also had a strong practice. He topped the chart with a speed of 77.847 mph. This was unexpected and he was rewarded with a lowering of his odds by 300 points.
After practicing second-fastest, Joey Logano (+1600) also saw his line drop. In this week’s Best Bets column [/edge/article/best-bets/beavers-best-bets-texas-grand-prix] we handicapped him as the best in class. After Truex’s struggles, we would be tempted to put him in the second position behind Elliott. Logano finished in the runner-up slot in his last two road course attempts.
Oddsmakers needed to sweeten the pot for Kevin Harvick (+1800) as well. He had 300 points added to his line and that makes him a more attractive bet. Like Busch, he did double duty in the Xfinity race and finished fourth. Winning still seems like a longshot, but the ROI makes him a better value.
Blaney (+1800) had 600 points added to his line despite posting a top-10 time in practice. Apparently the money simply wasn’t flowing to the winner of the inaugural Charlotte Motor Speedway Roval winner.
Christopher Bell (+1800) currently has the same odds as Blaney. He practiced three positions better than the No. 12.
Kyle Larson rounds out the top 10 this week after adding a massive 700 points to his line. We’re not entirely sure how to explain this move, but he has bounced up and down all week. His practice times were good with the third-fastest speed and visually he was able to match Elliott in the rain-soaked corners. Lock him in while you can, but don’t overcommit.
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Rank | Driver | Current | Opening | Change | Daytona |
1. | 225 | 240 | -15 | 190 | |
2. | 480 | 480 | 0 | 420 | |
3. | 1000 | 1400 | -400 | 1100 | |
4. | 1200 | 850 | 350 | 1000 | |
5. | 1500 | 1800 | -300 | 1800 | |
6. | 1600 | 1800 | -200 | 2000 | |
7. | 1800 | 1500 | 300 | 1500 | |
7. | 1800 | 1200 | 600 | 900 | |
7. | 1800 | 2200 | -400 | 6000 | |
10. | 2200 | 1500 | 700 | 2000 | |
| |||||
11. | 2500 | 2000 | 500 | 2000 | |
11. | 2500 | 3000 | -500 | 1300 | |
11. | 2500 | 2000 | 500 | 2500 | |
11. | 2500 | 2500 | 0 |
| |
15. | 3000 | 2800 | 200 | 3000 | |
16. | 6600 | 7000 | -400 | 9000 | |
17. | 8000 | 7000 | 1000 | 6000 | |
17. | 8000 | 7000 | 1000 | 10000 | |
17. | 8000 | 8000 | 0 | 8000 | |
20. | 9000 | 8000 | 1000 | 4000 | |
21. | 10000 | 10000 | 0 | 35000 | |
22. | 12500 | 8000 | 4500 | 9000 | |
22. | 12500 | 25000 | -12500 | 12500 | |
22. | 12500 | 8000 | 4500 | 8000 | |
25. | 15000 | 10000 | 5000 | 6600 | |
26. | 20000 | 15000 | 5000 | 12500 | |
27. | 25000 | 15000 | 10000 | 15000 | |
27. | 25000 | 15000 | 10000 | 25000 | |
27. | 25000 | 25000 | 0 | 12500 | |
30. | 30000 | 25000 | 5000 | 30000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 25000 | 25000 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 20000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 50000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 | 20000 | |
31. | 50000 | 50000 | 0 |
|
