Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics.
Heat at Celtics (-8): O/U 203.5
The Boston Celtics have done the unimaginable in tying up the series 3-3 after being down 0-3 thanks to a Derrick White buzzer-beater.
Boston will look to become the first team in NBA history to come back from down 0-3 and win the series 4-3 after three teams previously all lost Game 7. However, all three of those teams had to play Game 7 on the road, Boston will be at home.
While all the momentum is with Boston and all the pressure is on Miami, we should expect another low-scoring outing like Game 6, but historically, the Under is always the play in Game 7’s.
In the last 16 Game 7’s when the total moved at least five points lower than the previous Game 6 total, the Under is on a 14-2 winning streak (87.5%), which is in play here.
The total for Game 6 opened at 213.5 and closed a 209.5. Game 7 opened at 206.5 and is down to 203.5, so the trend is in effect with a 10-point or 6.0 point-move.
Boston played in two Game 7’s last season, winning both versus Milwaukee and at Miami, 109-81 and 100-96 (190 and 196 total points), both staying Under the total. This year, Boston beat Philly in Game 7, 112-88 (200 points), another low-scoring Game 7.
Miami has only played one Game 7 in the past two playoffs, so I don’t expect either offense to bring it and possessions to be critical and lengthy in the third and fourth quarters, like they were in Game 6.
I played the Under 206 for 3 units and the Under 203.5 for -110 odds at 2 units after the move.
I would go down to 200.0 for 1.5 units and anything Under 200 for 1 unit.
Pick: Under 203.5 (2u)
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