NBA Player Props, April 20: Why to back DeMar DeRozan and Marcus Smart
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DeMar DeRozan O/U 27.5 Points vs. Bucks
DeMar DeRozan had an uncharacteristic Game 1 versus the Bucks.
The King of the 4th quarter went 6-of-25 from the field (24%) and scored 18 points. That was his worst shooting performance (percentage) of the season and fourth-fewest points scored in a game.
After that performance, DeRozan took to post-game interviews to say this.
I expect a ton of DeRozan usage because if not, Milwaukee will cover the -10.
When DeRozan shoots 25-plus field goal attempts, the Bulls star has scored 28 or more 11 out of 12 times this year. Guess when the one Under was? Yup, Game 1.
He has also dominated at 40 or more minutes. That was his lowest-scoring game of the season at 40-plus minutes. Per statmuse, here are his eight regular-season games at 40 or more minutes.
DeRozan averages 36.6 points per game on 24.8 field goal attempts and 10.8 free-throw attempts with 10.1 makes per game (81 of 87 from the free-throw line).
DeRozan is 8-0 to the Over 27.5 points in those eight games.
This is the ultimate bounce-back game for DeRozan.
In four regular-season meetings versus the Bucks this season, DeRozan scored 40, 21, 29 and 35 points on 24.2 field goal attempts.
Let’s play DeRozan Over 27.5 points (-110) up to 28.5. I think he will go for 30-plus points.
Pick: DeMar DeRozan Over 27.5 Points (1.5u)
Marcus Smart O/U 24.5 PRA vs. Nets
We are running it back on Marcus Smart after his Game 1 performance versus the Nets.
It took Smart a minute to get going, but once he did, he owned the third quarter. However, this number is the exact same as Game 1 with some books already at 25.5 PRA. I like the Over on both.
Smart is now 6-0 to the Over 24.5 PRA versus the Nets in the postseason and 8-2 to the Over at 35 or more minutes since January 1st. With the move to point guard, Smart has excelled in a variety of ways this year, especially passing.
The Celtics guard finished with a career-high 5.9 assists per game and totaled a career-high in total assists (471) this season.
Last playoffs, Smart averaged 9.4 potential assists and 8.8 potential rebounds per game in that series and converted 6.0 assists (63.8%) and 4.4 rebounds per game (50%) for 28.2 PRA, per statmuse.
Smart finished Game 1 with 20 points, seven rebounds and six assists for 33 PRA, crushing the 24.5. Smart had 17.0 rebound and assist chances in Game 1 and capitalized on 13. While completing 13 out of 17 R+A chances is a high percentage, the Nets defense doesn’t offer any incentives for Smart not to repeat that success.
Fresh off his Defensive Player of the Year honor, I expect Smart to have another strong showing all-around, offensively and defensively for the Celtics.
This is playable to 25.5 at 1u. I grabbed the Over 24.5 for -122 odds.
Pick: Marcus Smart Over 24.5 PRA (1u)
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