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Donovan Mitchell O/U 28.5 Points vs. Magic
Donovan Mitchell has 100 points in his first three games for Cleveland, living up to the hype!
Darius Garland remains out after getting injured in the season-opener, so it is Spider Mitchell season for the time being. I kind of like the 0-4 Orlando Magic +8.5 tonight, which gives me added motivation to play an Over 28.5 for Mitchell and the home favorite Cavs.
Mitchell is hitting 49.3% of his shots this season for 33.3 points per game. He recorded 31, 32 and 37 points versus Toronto, Chicago and Washington with at least 19 field goal attempts and six or more free-throws, per statmuse.
Mitchell owns a 34.1% usage rate this season, which ranks 5th among starts if you take out Garland (38.2%).
So far, the opposing teams leading scorer recorded 24, 25, 40 and 25 points versus Orlando. Those players were Bojan Bogdanović, Trae Young, Jayson Tatum and Julius Randle.
Mitchell haș 30-plus points in four of the last seven meetings versus the Magic and made two or more triples in nine out of 10 career meetings.
The Magic rank 26th with opponent three-point percentage (38.3%) and 20th in points per game (115.5) to start the season. Mitchell is hitting 42.3% from three on the season (11-of-26) and with his three-point prop at O/U 3.5 and -115 to both the Over and Under, we should expect at least three triples to go down from Spida.
Let’s ride Mitchell in his hot start to the season until he goes Under or Garland comes back.
I played Mitchell Over 28.5 Points at -115 odds and would play this at Over 29.5 Points.
I also would not talk anyone off Mitchell Over 35.5 Points + Assists as an alternative. Mitchell averages 7.0 assists with 21 total assists over three games on 10.3 potential assists per game.
Trae Young had 13 assists, Cade Cunningham had 10, Marcus Smart recorded 8 and the Immanuel Quickley totaled 8 assist versus Orlando this season for opposing team leaders.
I sprinkled Mitchell at 10-plus assists for +320 odds on FanDuel in case he records his first double-double as a Cav.
Pick: Donovan Mitchell Over 28.5 Points (1u), Donovan Mitchell 10-plus assists (0.1u)
Giannis Antetokounmpo O/U 32.5 Points vs. Nets
I can’t wait to see this game. Brooklyn versus Milwaukee is gonna be exciting in every way.
In the last seven regular-season meetings versus the Nets, Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 36.4 points, 11.5 rebounds and 6.1 assists for 54.0 PRA. The Great Freak has been nothing short of beast-mode in those games.
Brooklyn simply hasn’t had anyone that can stop him and if you think Ben Simmons will, well you have another thing coming. The graph below is Giannis’ last seven versus the Nets, per statmuse.
Giannis scored 44, 29, 31, 32, 36, 49 and 34 points in those seven matchups.
Brooklyn allows 55.3 points per game in the paint (25th) and 123.0 points per game overall (28th) on 49.3% from the field (28th). The Nets defense allowed the Pelicans to score 130, Raptors 105 and Grizzlies 124 this season.
Brandon Ingram scored 28 on the Nets, Pascal Siakam had 37 points, plus Ja Morant and Desmond Bane each scored 38 points versus Brooklyn so far. There is nothing to like about this Nets defense.
Ben Simmons is the Nets only hope and he’s done a GREAT job already. Sike.
Simmons’ opponents are hitting enough shots to give him a few bottom 50 ranks among qualified starters, which is scary versus Giannis. Below are Simmons’ opponent field goal percentage this season.
62.3% from within 5 feet
57.1% from 5-9 feet
46.2% from 20-24 feet
43.8% from 25-plus feet
I played Giannis Over 32.5 points at -115 odds because he will not be shooting from outside 9 feet too often.
Ben Simmons, Kevin Durant, Royce O’Neale and Nic Claxton will guard Giannis throughout the night. Good luck!
The Great Freak is coming off a 44-point effort and is 3-of-6 from three on the season (50%). In his career, he averages 30% or better from three against 10 opponents and Brooklyn is one of them (33.7%).
I sprinkled Giannis to hit 3+ triples on FanDuel for +580 odds.
Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 Points (1u), Giannis 3+ Made Three-Pointers (0.1u)
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