James Harden O/U 9.5 Assists vs. Celtics
This line is similar to our LeBron James play on Wednesday night. This prop line is a little too low and will not exist much longer.
James Harden made a habit of crushing his Over on his assists prop earlier in the season and the playoffs should be no different. The Beard has averaged 10.8 assists per game this season, so we are getting him on a discount.
Harden averaged 11.5 assists in March and at least 10.7 assists in four straight months leading up to March. Harden played 25 and 26 minutes in his two games back from injury, recording seven and 11 assists.
Boston allows 24.4 assists per game to opponents in the last 10 games (11th). They also allow 116.2 points per game in that span, ranking 20th overall. In his previous three meetings with the Celtics, Harden recorded seven, seven and eight assists. [[ad:athena]]
When Harden plays 35 or more minutes on the season, he has a 76.7% hit rate in 30 games. As his minutes go up, so do the chances of his assists prop of hitting.
Versus Boston this season, Harden had eight assists, 10 rebounds and 22 points in 38 minutes alongside Kyrie Irving, but no Kevin Durant.
In eight games with Harden, Irving and Durant, Harden had a team-high 40.8% assist to turnover percentage.
When Harden plays between 30-39 minutes this season, he averages 10.4 assists per game. When he plays 20-29 minutes, that number dips to 8.5.
At least 25 minutes played will be necessary, but with Game 1 setting the tone, I expect Harden to record at least 30 minutes. Harden averages 11.0 assists per game in seven contests when he has had three days or more off.
After 25 and 26-minute outings, he should be well-rested and have had time to gameplan for the Boston backcourt. Harden had nine straight games of eight or more assists before playing the Rockets then getting injured.
In his last four matchups against teams that made the Eastern Conference playoffs where he played 30 or minutes, Harden totaled eight or more assists in all four. Those were all in March, before his injury.
I expect Harden to lead the team in assists and, ultimately, the game. His line opened at 8.5 and moved to 9.5. That is as far as I would play it.
Pick: James Harden Over 9.5 Assists (1u)
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