Editor’s Note: Looking to place a player prop bet on this week’s NFL game? New users receive a risk-free bet up to $1,000: Sign up here and bet now with code PEACOCK.
Giants at Jaguars (-3): O/U 43.5
You have probably heard so many narratives for this line being Jaguars -3.
The Giants are 5-1. The Giants have won three-straight games all by eight or fewer points. The Giants beat the Ravens and Packers back-to-back weeks!
The Jaguars are 2-4 and have lost three-straight games all by eight or fewer points and one of those were to the Texans!
So why are the Jaguars -3 favorites? It’s pro’s versus joe’s. The public is all over New York and it’s no surprise.
The Giants played at Tennessee in Week 1 and a neutral site game in London for Week 5, so this is only the second true road game of the year for New York.
This weather and environment benefits the Jaguars tremendously and this is a max desperation spot for Jacksonville.
The Jaguars cannot lost four-straight with the Titans and Colts playing head-to-head for first-place in the division this week, while the Texans play the Raiders off a bye week.
The Jaguars shutout the Colts 24-0 at home and lost to the Texans 13-6 at home this year. After the Jags heart-breaking loss at Indianapolis last week, back Jacksonville to win and cover.
I played the Jaguars -3 at -110 odds. I would not play -3.5.
Pick: Jaguars -3 (1.5u)
Texans at Raiders (-6.5): O/U 46.0
The Raiders are 0-5 ATS and on the ML the last 5 years after a bye week.
The Texans are 5-3 ATS and 6-2 on the ML in the last eight following ML following a bye.
While the Raiders are the obviously more talented team, not much separates them from the bottom, plus the Texans are still looking for the first out of division win and the Raiders are a viable opponent to get the ATS cover against.
Las Vegas could be without Hunter Renfrow and Mack Hollins, plus they are already without Darren Waller. Houston has only allowed one team to score more than 23 points this season (L.A. Chargers) and Las Vegas only topped 30 points once this season (win vs Denver Broncos), so I cannot see the Raiders blowing the Texans out.
While the Texans are an ugly team to back, they have a solid rushing attack with Dameon Pierce and Davis Mills is capable of keeping a game close and losing the outright win late.
I bought the half-point to Texans +7 at -118 odds on DraftKings.
Pick: Texans +7 (1u)
Packers (-4.5) at Commanders: O/U 41.5
I am convinced the Packers’ reign is over.
The Packers pulled the unthinkable and lost to both the Giants and Jets in back-to-back weeks so he can no longer enter the state of New York.
While the Commanders are a team nobody likes to back on Sunday’s, this is a good spot to back Washington.
Washington is coming off a 12-7 win on Thursday Night Football and had extra days to prepare for the Packers, plus watch that Packers loss to the Jets from the couch.
The Commanders have decent run DVOA numbers and have played four-low-scoring games in a row. The Packers offense is really struggling, so bad that Aaron Rodgers Over 1.5 Passing TDs has been -110 and +100 -- I can’t believe it, but I see it happening. Green Bay is bad.
Washington makes the switch to Taylor Heinicke which is an improvement over Carson Wentz.
Heinke is 6-2 ATS in the last eight starts with extra days to prep, I ike the home dog Commanders +4.5 against the Packers. I bought the extra-half pint for Commanders +5 at -119 odds on DraftKings.
Pick: Commanders +5 (1u)
Browns at Ravens (-6.5): O/U 46.0
This has the making of a classic AFC North battle or will it? The past three meetings between the Browns and Ravens have been decided by six or fewer points. However, Lamar Jackson was injured for the previous meeting, so Tyler Huntley recorded the start and covered the +3 but lost the game.
The Ravens have covered five-straight meetings versus the Browns and the last time Jackson started was a six-point win and cover (-3), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The previous meetings between these teams featured a more talented Browns squad. Cleveland is 0-3 ATS and on the ML over the past three games and 1-4 ATS and on the ML in the last five, nowhere near the level of last years’ team.
The only win and cover this season for the Browns came against the Steelers on Thursday Night Football. With one of the easiest schedules in the NFL through the first six games, Cleveland managed to finish 2-4 ATS and on the ML.
Baltimore has played the Dolphins, Bills and Bengals in the three home games this season, undoubtedly the toughest home stretch in all of football. You could argue the Ravens could be 6-0 or 5-1 this season, but that’s football.
Baltimore lost versus the Dolphins and Bills in the final seconds and beat the Bengals on a walk-off field goal. This will be the easiest home game for the Ravens thus far.
This is also a bounce back spot for Baltimore and Jackson after losing to the Giants. Since 2020, the Ravens are 4-1 on the ML (80%) and won four-straight games returning home off a ML loss.
Cleveland has played two road games this year and beat Carolina 26-24 and lost to Atlanta 23-20.
Give me the Ravens -6.5 at -110 odds. I would play it to -7.
Pick: Ravens -6.5 (1u)
Mark Andrews Anytime TD vs. Browns
Did you know it’s National Tight End Day? Well, this is a tight end you should consider backing today.
Rashod Batman is doubtful to play in this game and historically, Mark Andrews has had success versus Cleveland.
Andrews’ last outing versus Cleveland featured 10 receptions on 11 targets for 115 yards and a touchdown.
Andrews recorded at least five receptions and 65-plus receiving yards in four out of the last five versus the Browns. Over the last six meetings versus Cleveland, Andrews scored five different games for seven total touchdowns.
This season, Andrews has 39 receptions, 455 receiving yards and five touchdowns over six games.
Opposing tight ends have had little success against Cleveland this year. However, Andrews is a different breed, and last week Hunter Henry had seven receptions and 40 yards on nine targets and a touchdown versus the Browns.
That as the first touchdown a tight end score on Cleveland this season and I like the chances it happens here.
Cleveland has allowed 19 total touchdowns this season (eight passing, 11 rushing), so I believe Andrews will have a few red zone looks.
NBC’s player prop model project Andrews to record 5.8 receptions for 74.8 yards on 8.4 targets and looking over Andrews tight end ranks, he is either number one or top five in nearly every category, per PlayerProfiler.
I played Andrews to score an anytime TD at -110 odds on National Tight Ends Day.
I like the chances he gets peppered today without J.K. Dobbins and Bateman (more than likely).
Pick: Mark Andrews Anytime TD (1u)
George Kittle Anytime TD vs. Chiefs
On National Tight End day, George Kittle has a positive matchup where everyone is talking about Christian McCaffrey.
Kansas City uses two-high coverages on 65% of opponent dropbacks outside the red zone, the second-highest rate in the NFL, per TruMedia. Kittle also leads his team in target share versus two-high coverage (32%), so this is a positive matchup.
Kittle balled out last week versus Atlanta with a season-high 10 targets and eight receptions for 83 yards, all season-highs. This week, offensive tackle Trent Williams returns, so Kittle won’t have to block quite as much.
Kittle has met the Chiefs twice in his career and recorded five receptions for seven targets and 79 yards in the regular-season meeting (2018), plus four receptions and 36 yards on seven targets in the Super Bowl (2020).
The 49ers lost both games. Kittle could exact some revenge on National Tight Ends Day and Kittle has yet to score a touchdown this season! What a perfect time to score, am I right?
Dawson Knox, Zach Ertz and Jelani Woods (twice) have scored on the Chiefs this season.
I played Kittle to score an anytime TD at +210 odds against the Chiefs.
Pick: George Kittle Anytime TD (1u)
MARCUS MARIOTA O/U 229.5 TOTAL YARDS VS. BENGALS
The Bengals are coming off games featuring some mobile quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson and Taysom Hill.
While Tua only played a half and Hill played multiple positions, the Bengals still had to game plan for the opposing quarterbacks legs and they will here as well.
Marcus Mariota is coming off an upset win versus the 49ers as the Falcons continue to cover spreads (6-0 ATS).
However, Mariota’s stats haven’t been all that superb. He averages 175.8 passing yards and 34.3 rushing yards per game this season for 210.1 total yards per game.
Mariota has only hit the Over 229.5 total yards twice this season and that came back in Week 3 versus the Seahawks (233) and Week against the Saints (287). This prop opened at 233.5, which he was 5-1 to the Under.
The Bengals allow the lowest completion percentage in the NFL at 56.6% and the sixth-lowest yards per pass attempt at 5.8 yards. Cincy’s defense also has five interceptions to five touchdown passes allowed.
Mariota ranks 22nd in clean pocket percentage (68.7%), 23rd in deep ball completion percentage (31.6%) and 27th in true completion percentage (66.1%), plus average 3.2 deep passes per game (18th), per PlayerProfiler.
Play his Under 229.5 total yards and expect a sweat. I got this at -110 odds and would play to 225.5.
Pick: Marcus Mariota Under 229.5 Total Yards (1u)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
