The line movement in tonight’s tilt between the Chicago Bears and Tampa Buccaneers has been pretty wild to say the least.
Tampa actually opened as a 6-point road favorite when the number first hit the betting boards. PointsBet Sportsbook opened their line at Tampa -5.5. You look up now and PointsBet is dealing Bucs -3.5 with a total of 44.5.
Personally, I think it’s a combination of the market correcting itself with big money betting against a 43-year-old quarterback playing on three days rest with a banged up receiving core.
“It’s definitely a market correction,” PointsBet senior sports analyst Andrew Mannino told NBC Sports. “People are still loving the Bucs though and they’ve liked them straight through. We’re going to need the Bears tonight."[[ad:athena]]
So wait. The line has moved almost three points and the book needs the other side?
“We need the Bears,” Mannino repeated. “The action just keeps coming on the Bucs. People believe in Tom Brady and the system. Even with all their injuries and all the questions around the team this week, they’re still betting the Bucs. They have been from the jump. The moneyline action is a bit more balanced, but still favoring Tampa. And same as it ever was this season, the Over is getting 65 percent of the total bets and handle.”
What’s the perfect outcome for the house?
“We would prefer the Bears win outright in a nail-biting, low scoring game,” Mannino said with a laugh. We talk twice a week and I feel like he’s always rooting for the Under.
So I asked Mannino what he thought about the average NFL point total rising five points from Week 1 to Week 5 (45.5 up to 50.5). That may not sound like a big adjustment, but it definitely is.
“It’s certainly been a high scoring start to the season. We’ve seen offenses clicking and defenses struggling to get up to speed with no preseason. The market always corrects itself and it’s going to catch up. Bettors are riding the wave right now, but things will even out sooner rather than later.”
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