Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we’ll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let’s go.
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James Robinson OVER 74.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
The Jaguars are projected to lose again this week and Robinson simply doesn’t care about game-script. He has hit this prop in six games, all of which have been losses. Because the Jaguars exclusively give Robinson and no one else carries, he’s able to beat his props on a team that is pass-heavy and often losing. The last time the Jaguars gave a back that wasn’t Robinson more than one carry was Week 5. They haven’t given another running back more than two carries in a game this season. The volume is too good with Robinson to pass on betting his over.
Taysom Hill OVER 188.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Hill is 50/50 on the over for his passing yards as a starter but the last game he played wasn’t particularly representative of what we can expect from him. He faced a team that was starting a practice squad receiver at quarterback and only scored three points. The Falcons are 11th in points per game which should force Hill into passing more than 16 times this week. When he has been given the chance to throw, Hill has been efficient this year. Just looking at his two starts, Hill is averaging eight yards per attempt and completing 68.2 percent of his passes. This line is too low for any competent passer facing an NFL offense with an actual quarterback.
Travis Kelce OVER 68.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Kelce hasn’t dipped under 68.5 yards in a single game since Week 7 and has beaten this line in eight of his 11 games played this season. Since 2016, Kelce has more 100-yard games versus the Broncos than he has games under this receiving line. Kelce leads all tight ends with 98 targets and is second in target share at 24 percent. All of that volume comes with the incredible bonus that it is originating in the hands of Patrick Mahomes. Keep betting on Kelce until his line goes through the roof.
Chad Bebee UNDER 12.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Bebee posted a career day last week with a 7-63-1 line on seven targets. However, that came with Adam Thielen out. Thielen is back in the lineup this week and Bebee isn’t a lock to catch one pass. Before Week 12, Bebee had one game with more than two catches and it came in 2018. He was posting .9 catches for 7.9 yards per game heading into last week. That should be the expectation for him once again making the under on his receiving yardage prop an easy bet.
Carson Wentz OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+128)
Wentz may be a bad quarterback at this point but good or bad doesn’t really matter. Value matters when looking at prop bets and there’s significant value on betting Wentz to throw two scores. He has done so seven times in 11 games this year. The obvious pushback on that would be those are games that the Eagles likely won and Vegas has them as touchdown underdogs this week. Even that hasn’t been the case this season. Philadelphia is 2-5 in the games that Wentz has thrown two touchdown passes. The Packers are a below-average defense by passing touchdowns allowed and negative game-script should keep Wentz throwing until the final whistle.
Last Week: 3-1, +1.6 units
Season: 3-1, +1.6 units
