Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we’ll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let’s go.
Logan Thomas Under 45.5 Receiving Yards (-121)
Thomas returned to the lineup last week but he played a limited version of his normal role. He earned a 79 percent snap rate after playing every snap through three weeks to open the year. Thomas ran 26 routes to John Bates’ 11 routes. Through three weeks, Thomas’s backup, Ricky Seals-Jones, ran just eight total routes. If he isn’t back to his typical role, Thomas has little chance of hitting the over. He didn’t reach 46 yards once to start the year and he only topped this line five times in 16 games last year.
Cordarrelle Patterson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Patterson is coming off a career-high in carries (16) and rushing yards (108). He has also hit the over on this prop in 6-of-10 games this year. Most importantly, he played 79 percent of his snaps as a running back. That was the second-highest mark of his season (and possibly his career). Patterson is playing a true running back role while his prop reflects something less than that.
Ronald Jones Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-131)
Jones has topped this prop in consecutive weeks but his role hasn’t changed. He played just under 20 percent of the Bucs’ snaps in both games, exactly in line with his season-long average. Before the past two weeks, Jones had hit the over on this number just once in nine games. Jones is also insulated against Tampa Bay running out a lead versus the Falcons because his team is second in the NFL in pass rate over expectation. Jones has run hot on yards per carry (4.7) over the previous two weeks and that has given him an inflated prop.
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Kirk Cousins Under 280.5 Passing Yards (-121)
The Lions are by no means a good defense. They are a lackluster bunch, to say the least, but their lack of talent actually works against opposing quarterbacks putting up big numbers. The Lions are almost exactly average in passing yards per game allowed (243). This is almost entirely based on how run-heavy teams get to play against them. The Lions face a pass rate of 50.8 percent. No other team gets run on more than Detroit. That should keep Cousins, who is averaging 273 passing yards per game, under his prop.
Alexander Mattison to get 100+ Rushing Yards (+175)
For the same reasons we want to fade Kirk Cousins, we want to be exposed to the immense upside of Mattison, who will take over Dalvin Cook’s role and then some this week. Mattison has two starts this year and he easily cleared 100 in both games. He also saw 85 percent of the team’s running back carries in those two games. As a 7.5-point favorite over Detroit this week, Mattison should be the focal point of the Minnesota offense.
Last Week: (3-2), +.6 units
Season: 23-32, -10.6 units
