TNF Props, Bets: Kenny Golladay O/U 49.5 Receiving Yards, Giants +3.5
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New York Giants at Washington Football Team (-3.5)
Turnovers, occasional deep shots mixed in with two talented running backs is what I’m expecting. The two squads see each other twice a year, and lately, New York has run the NFC East series.
Jones is 4-0 in his career versus Washington, winning by six or fewer in the previous three.
Using NBC’s Edge Finder tool, I dug up some useful data between these two teams. What I found was a lot of New York victories and ATS covers in the series.
Looking over New York in the series versus Washington ATS, straight up, as the underdog and the road dog, the Giants have proven they can win any given Sunday...or Thursday.
New York has won five straight and seven of the last 10 meetings with Washington. The G-Men have covered the spread six out of 10 times, but four out of the last five is what catches my eye.
As a road underdog versus Washington, New York has gone 4-1 ATS since 2013 and won outright in four of the last five contests.
New York can win this game outright, and there is not much reason to believe Washington will run away with this or win by double-digits. I even like the Giants +10 and Over 34.5 as a teaser option.
Washington will have a short week to roll with Heiniecke, who will not have much time to gain a rhythm with his offense before taking on the Giants. He has done well in his short time with Washington.
In the three games Heiniecke played, he tossed three touchdowns and one interception on 49/78 (62.8%) for 565 passing yards. I could see both teams scoring 17-plus points here, but there will be a few possessions where there is a disconnect between Heiniecke and his receivers/lineman.
New York struggled on offense versus Denver, but that was expected versus a top-tier Broncos defense. Washington’s front-seven is the best part of their team and with limited running lanes for Saquon Barkley, Kenny Golladay and company will have to make plays.
The Giants ended the game with a Jones rushing touchdown on a two-minute drive. While that was garbage time and the entire fourth for that matter, it gave Jones a rhythm to connect with Sterling Shepard and Golladay, who both looked good equally impressive in the fourth quarter.
I think the passing game will play a vital role in this outcome and the Giants will attempt to air it out earlier than they did in Week 1.
Jones averages a 68.2% completion percentage and has eight touchdowns to three interceptions and 901 passing yards in four games versus Washington. That is the most yards, touchdowns and interceptions he has thrown to an opposing team in his short career, not to mention the third-best QBR (100.0).
Those mini details on a short week give me confidence in taking the points with the road dog, who has won the previous five straight meetings and three consecutive in Washington.
Pick: Giants +3.5 (1u)
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Kenny Golladay O/U 49.5 RECEIVING YARDS
Kenny Golladay has recorded 50 or more receiving yards in seven straight games when healthy and 13 of the previous 15 (86.6%).
That is crazy, but it makes sense because this will be the second game of his career with Daniel Jones and the Giants.
However, the two gained chemistry in the fourth quarter of their Week 1 loss to the Broncos. Jones and Golladay connected on one pass in the first half for 17 yards, but Golladay received five of his six targets in the fourth quarter.
Golladay caught three passes for 47 yards in the final 8:45 of the game The Giants had four drives in the first half and two resulted in three and outs, so not much for Golladay to work with.
Golladay and Jones’ rhythm in the fourth did not go unnoticed. The two talked a lot about being rusty coming out of preseason together, but Jones had this to say after the game and final drives.
“Yeah, I think that was valuable time to get out there and make some plays,” Jones said Sunday night. “He (Golladay) played well and made a number of big plays there at the end. And we’ll continue to try to get him the ball.”
NBC’s player prop model projects Golladay to have 59 receiving yards on 3.7 receptions and 6.4 targets, hitting the Over.
In Week 1, Golladay recorded four receptions for 64 yards on six “rusty” targets.
In Golladay’s career, the 6-foot-4 receiver has been a deep threat and over-the-top weapon. In his five NFL seasons, including this one, his yards per catch average (ypc) has been 15.2 or better.
On three catches, that is 45 yards. With an implied 3.7 targets, or four for good measure, Golladay should land somewhere between 50 and 60 yards.
With the depth of his routes in Week 1, there is a good chance he can have 50-plus yards on three catches, which is why I am playing the yards over the 3.5 receptions. I think both are good bets and I approve of a pivot there.
Washington allowed Los Angeles’ (Chargers) Jalen Guyton (49 yards), Jared Cook (56 yards), Mike Williams (82) and Keenan Allen (100) all to hit 49 or more receiving yards in Week 1. Six different targets had a reception of 17 or longer versus Washington, which is Golladay’s calling.
Jones had a 46.2% deep ball completion percentage last season, which was seventh in the NFL, per PlayerProfiler. If he can get some attempts downfield, Golladay can come up with them.
The three catches he nabbed in the fourth quarter were all impressive in their own rights, so I am excited to see the development between the QB-WR in Week 2.
In Golladay’s last fully healthy season (2019), he ranked sixth in the NFL with 10.6 yards per target and third with 18.3 yards per reception.
I would play this up to 54.5 receiving yards for one unit.
Pick: Kenny Golladay Over 49.5 Receiving Yards (1u)
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