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We’re back for Week 7 with some of the best teams in the NFL on byes. Yeah, I know, it’s brutal. But at the end of the day, we have to find value on the board where nobody else can see it. So quit your whining and let’s roll up those sleeves. It’s your boy’s birthday this weekend, so we’re absolutely due for a MONSTER week.
Feel Free to hit me up if you want to send me best wishes!
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
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Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys (-7) | Over/Under 48.5
The Thanksgiving Day OG’s square off in a potential high-flying matchup, and one that should ultimately have been played on THANKSGIVING so we could have had another game in there. Dallas and Detroit have been the ATS darlings over the last year and a half combining to go 31-14 against the number! Just soooo butter.
If you’re the Lions, it’s time to remove your head from where the sun doesn’t shine. You lost three games in a row in a horrendous fashion. You’re allowing 428.6 total yards per game. When is it going to stop? The good news is they should be *knocks on wood* getting WR Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB D’Andre Swift back on the field. The offense has been pretty lost since the two of them have been either out of the lineup or completely not right (aside from the Seahawks game). With Detroit operating as one of the premier offenses in the NFL when fully healthy, I think they have enough to keep this surging Dallas defense off balance. Through the first four weeks, the Lions had scored the most points in the NFL (141) and possessed the second-best offense in terms of EPA (35.31). For them, the key is to defend this Cowboys’ pass rush led by DPOY favorite Micah Parsons. Out of QBs with at least five games played, Goff has been sacked the LEAST amount of times (7) in the NFL this year. The key is to protect Goff first, then establish the run, then be able to hit the playmakers and let them take care of the rest.
So, it sounds like Dak Prescott is back on the horse. See what I did there? Obviously, Prescott is a better player than Cooper Rush, but is he a better fit for this offense right now? I’ve said this for the last few weeks. Rush is nothing special, but he is the captain of the ship with not many highs and not many lows. Pretty much like Jimmy G, he was facilitating and allowing the players around him to carry the burden. That aside, I am curious to see how Dak looks in his first game back since the hand/thumb injury he suffered in Week 1. They should be able to run rampant over a Lions’ defense that is statistically the worst in scoring (34 PPG) and the aforementioned total defense. I would still like to see what the QB1 looks like.
Matchup-wise, it definitely favors Dallas. There is just something about this game that I think the Lions will come roaring out of the bye week. Seven points is a large number, and I think if they get their horses back to business, Detroit could put up 25-31 points, which is definitely a green light to cover this number. Of course, this look could be a total disaster, but I am actually waiting to bet on this contest. Rumor has it a few big bets will be coming in on the Cowboys along with Dak being officially ruled in. This line might be closing around 8.5. So, I’m actually touting that closing number. For now, I am only putting out the 7 as a base point.
Prediction: Lions cover (+7)
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) @ San Francisco 49ers | Over/Under 48.5
CMC is now a 49er! Can’t say I’m surprised since they were looking heavy to acquire him, but still, what a blockbuster pickup for the Bay Area Bombers. It’s unsure how many touches the new RB will get, but regardless this is a great matchup for Week 7.
San Francisco is going to be rejuvenated after this pickup. While it’s uncertain how many snaps White Lightning will receive tomorrow - my fantasy team hopes it’s a ton - the 49ers have a ton of other options to help get this upset W at home. Before I officially play this game, I wanted to see how the key injuries will look for Sunday. The best left tackle in football, Trent Williams, sounds like he is on the right track to suit up for this one, which is huge. The other guy that is a deciding factor for me is my DPOY hopeful Nick Bosa. His status has been quite murky thus far throughout the week and may ultimately impact my decision.
San Fran is still in a prime position to pull off this upset tomorrow. The key on offense, especially if CMC plays, is deploying the backs in the passing game. The Chiefs currently are allowing the most catches to RBs this season (56) as well as the most yards (390). The Shanahan zone run scheme that has helped numerous backs succeed over the years could prove to be the best run offense this KC defense has seen all season thus far. And yes, it’s the same defense that allowed Josh Jacobs to scamper for 154 yards in Week 5. Furthermore, not only does the Chiefs’ defense allow the T-5th most receptions to WRs (85), but they have surrendered the eighth-most yards (1,069) and most TDs (9) to that position. Lastly, this same secondary has yielded the T-3rd most YAC (822 yards), and we all know the 49ers have some YAC DADDIES on this offense like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Making these defenders make plays in space is a great formula for the 49ers.
The Chiefs were not a team I was high on coming into the season. Obviously, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce still exist, which has been a nightmare for the opposition. However, the run game has been mediocre at best to go along with those suspect wideouts, and crumbling defense. They were quite fortunate to come away with wins against the Chargers and Raiders, otherwise, we are talking about a potential 2-4 team. Should Bosa suit up, it could cause a lot of issues for the Chiefs’ offensive line which has seen Mahomes get dropped nine times over the last three games. Since the Chiefs don’t have a premier run game like Atlanta had last week to upset this team, the Chiefs will target this secondary that lost Emmanuel Mosley for the year. Though SF has largely graded well against WRs, it’s a bit different when number 15 is calling the shots. It could potentially be a tough week for this offense since they don’t necessarily have the matchups to exploit some of the Niners’ defensive weaknesses.
I’m peeved that this line snuck inside three. It still looks like KC is getting more of the public action, you know the whole thing about Mahomes bouncing back after a loss. But I am not sold on the Chiefs. Even if Nick Bosa misses this game, I’m still taking the plunge that SF emerges victorious. If Bosa is ultimately in, then my SF ML will be an emphatic one.
Side Note: For the last few weeks I have been eyeing SF for an NFC ticket but wanted to wait for the price to drop. Obviously, they got hammered with the CMC news, which is a bit of an overreaction in my opinion. Still, I was able to get a solid price on them to win the conference on 7/1. It’s absolutely a strong look.
Prediction: 49ers win (+116)
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) | Over/Under 50
This line has gotten STEAMED over the past few days. The Chargers were damn near -7 before getting bet down to 5.5 and 5 in some spots. Crazy business. My dear Bolts have been my Super Bowl team since February when I had a vision that Justin Herbert throwing the game-winning TD to Keenan Allen on a deep crosser with 37 seconds left. Can LAC keep the gravy train rolling for their fourth straight victory?
Seattle has been a place of joy for me this year. Of course, most of you should know I was so high on my darling Mariners in the preseason. Lately, though, I have been infatuated with the Seahawks. Having a Geno Smith CPOY ticket (+2000) is one of the reasons, but that aside the Hawks have been a fun team to watch, root for, and bet on.
One of the huge aspects of this matchup that benefits the birds will be the ferocious ground attack led by emerging stud - and possible fantasy league winner - Kenneth Walker. This same Chargers’ run defense has picked up where they left off last season, by being dreadful against the run (partly because of injuries) even if the numbers don’t paint the whole picture. LAC got gashed by Nick “he’s not a” Chubb, Demon Pierce, and James Robinson over the last month or so. With Walker dashing his way to a 29/185/2 line over the past couple of games, he is set up for a butter matchup vs. a defense that has been giving up a ton of explosive plays on the ground. To complement this attack, our boy Geno can take advantage of some mismatches in the secondary with man-beater WRs in Tyler Lockett and Papa DK Metcalf. Though LAC has been solid against the aerial threats, their prized FA acquisition in CB JC Jackson has been a bust so far this year with the combination of his lingering ankle and the product of a Bill Belichick system. This looks to be a spot where Seattle should be able to drop about 27 points, maybe a 30 bean.
I’m getting sick of Brandon Staley as the HC for the Chargers. He’s so clueless at times with no feel for the game situation/flow that he solely relies on “analytics.” Now, I’m not totally opposed to using some of those analytics at times because I believe they can provide some great insight. However, I am far from an analytics guy. I think they are mostly crap. They are meant to be a complement as opposed to a supplement like some people use them. If analytics told Staley to stand in front of an oncoming train, I’m pretty sure he would do it.
If you’re the Bolts, getting Keen Daddy back would provide a tremendous boost to an offense that has been handcuffed lately. With how well the Seahawks’ secondary is playing, it would behoove them to go a little more run-heavy since the opponent is allowing the second most yards on the ground (165.8 YPG) this season. After that is established, then take your shots downfield with Justin Herbert and these pass catchers. Chances are Mike Williams might see a lot of budding star CB Tariq Woolen, who has four straight games with a pick. Furthermore, continue to use Austin Ekeler in the passing game. Seattle allows the sixth most receptions to backs (33) and third most yards (305). By the way, Ekeler’s 41 catches rank as the sixth most for any pass catcher in the NFL this season. With Seattle allowing the third most points in 2022 (27.2 PPG), the Chargers should be dropping a 30-piece in this likely shootout.
It should come as no surprise where I am going. Despite some of the more public action, I have to roll with the Hawks getting 5.5 points. It does seem like they are the most frequent road dog of 5/5.5 points this year. Despite getting hosed by the refs against the Saints in this spot, it’s too good of a look not to take. Dating back to the start of 2021, road dogs getting 5/5.5 points are 12-2 ATS; 9-4-1 SU. I think LAC gets the W, but we have to be in Seattle.
Prediction: Seahawks cover (+5.5)
Survivor Pick:
Jesus. The Bucs stunk up the joint last week—apologies to anybody I may have caused elimination for. But we must move on. In Week 7, we are rolling with the Patriots over the Bears.
Teaser:
Week 6 was another teaser smash. You’re up six units this season if you have been playing. Let’s go again!
Giants +9 (Originally +3)
This will be a game on my slate this weekend. I was between them and the Falcons getting 12.5. With NYG going to the Jags, they should be able to keep this one under 10 points with a chance to pull off the upset. I’m not sold on JAX right now. Saquon Barkley should give them some issues.
Seahawks +11.5 (Originally +5.5)
Seattle is certainly live for this upset. Betting them in the teaser for what is the fourth week in a row (I think), they are getting double-digit points against a team they might beat outright. The run game should slow down this Bolts’ defense enough.
Summary:
Seahawks +5.5 (-110)
49ers ML (+116)
Lions +7 (-110)** Expecting the line to move, will play it higher
Teaser: Seahawks +11.5/Giants +9 (-120)
Survivor: Patriots
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.