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The key three picks went out earlier this week, but in typical fashion, I will be dishing out other picks that I also like. Is Week 2 going to be another case where the underdogs come out barking? Let’s find out.
And yes, I unfortunately lied about lightening up the card for this week but I couldn’t help it. It will be lighter throughout the season…probably. Maybe.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
Plays I Like (Official Plays):
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars | Over/Under 44.5
Some people believe in certain trends like it’s absolution or true science. And some don’t. Whichever side of the coin you are on is irrelevant. But what is important is having a true breakdown of why you may or may not like something. For Indianapolis, playing in Jacksonville (or when the Jags are the home team i.e. in London), has been a straight-up nightmare. Since 2015, they have neither won or covered the spread play at Jacksonville (or London). Will this time be different?
Coming into the season I believed – and still do – in the Colts. One of my favorite all-time players, Matt Ryan, seemed to be the missing piece of a team that was knocking on the door of becoming a true contender. Fumbling around like a bunch of bumbling idiots was a bad look in Week 1 at the Texans. The last time Indy even notched over 20 points in Jacksonville? You have to go all the way back to 2014, which was the point in my life where I was obsessed with going out on Tuesdays for dollar beers. What a time to be alive. History aside, the bigger issue for Indy is they are dealing with a bunch of key injuries in WRs Michael Pittman (highly questionable - quad), Alec Pierce (concussion - out), LB Darius Leonard (back - out), DT DeForest Bucker (hip - questionable), CB Kenny Moore (hip - questionable), and of course trying to replace former kicker and Lego enthusiast Rodrigo Blankenship (cut earlier this week) who at the moment has not been replaced (team worked out Josh Lambo). Of course, the offensive line and RB Jonathan Taylor are good to go, but dealing with a plethora of injuries does not set Indy up for success. If the team has any hope to win this game, let alone cover, Ryan and Taylor will need to be tip top on Sunday against a Jags team hungry to avenge that meltdown last week against the Commanders.
Despite the blown loss, Jags fans should be pleased with what they saw on Sunday. Trevor Lawrence looked good for the most part, the run game averaged almost seven yards per carry with James Robinson showing no ill effects of tearing his Achilles late last season, Christian Kirk put on a WR1 clinic with 6/117 on 12 targets, and the defense forced three turnovers. I had Jax as a team that might be the second best in their division coming into the year, but they can take an early stranglehold on the AFC South should they upset Indy in Week 2. The key for sure on defense is keeping a lid on the 2021 rushing champion Taylor, who has rain-made this unit in his last three contests (66/423/3). If they are able to do that, it could truly be upset city at home for the eighth straight season (seven if you count every game truly being at home).
There were some 4.5’s hanging out there early in the week before the train hit on the Jags spread, dropping it to +4 – which is where I got the number at. After all is said and done the line dropped to +3.5, and now even +3 at certain books. If those key players are ruled out for the Colts, it could be inside a field goal come game time. Although I think Indy finds a way to finally prove victorious, I think the Jags cover in this spot. With 83% of the money on my side, and some ticking up tickets from 60% to 66% this should be one bet the late public action should see go green. I would still play this to +3 if that’s all you can find.
Prediction: Jaguars cover (+3.5)
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Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) | Over/Under 50.5
This is one of the most important games of the week, and maybe the season for the NFC. We have two heavy hitters that could prove to be four of the top seeds in the conference come January. Aside from it being a great litmus test, it’s also one hell of a Monday nighter. Last time they squared off, the Vikings boat raced Philly 38-20 (10/13/19) in Minny. Who comes away with it?
The Vikes were one of the few teams I was extremely high on coming into the year. I started talking them up in May and writing about them in June. Feeling like I got the jump on most people infuriated me when I saw they had become a trendy pick among the public. In Week 1, my OPOY pick Justin Jefferson dropped a 40 bean in fantasy on his way to a 184-yard performance (career-high), which is exactly what I wanted to see. This new era of football under HC Kevin O’Connell left me with a lot of positives. Facing an Eagles defense that nearly choked away a 17-point lead in Detroit last weekend en route to allowing the Lions to grab a 35 spot. With Philly unable to have an answer for D’Andre Swift (career-high 144 rush yards) and Amon Ra-St. Brown (8/64/1), it leads me to believe the Vikings’ offense can take advantage of this defense, especially with all of the weapons at their disposal (expecting another big game from Jefferson). Even against a good Packers defense, Captain Kirk only got dropped once. If Minny can hold that same protection, there’s no reason they shouldn’t be pumping a 30-piece on the scoreboard.
For most of the game, the Eagles’ offense was unstoppable. Jalen Hurts sliced up Detroit by air and land after that rough 0/5 start. AJ Brown showed the Titans were dummies for letting him go (10/155), as well as bringing a new dimension to the offense. On paper, the Vikings’ defense looked strong holding GB to only seven points, but I don’t think they were as good as the box score showed since Christian Watson dropped a 75-yard walk-in TD and the Packers fell short at the goal line on fourth down. Still, the four sacks were a good sign that can make life a bit more difficult for their opponent this week. If the birds hope to pull this one out, they will need to test the weaker secondary and have Hurts prepared to run on a team that hasn’t seen his skillset just yet.
I’m expecting a higher scoring affair, as are 80% of the tickets and 73% of the money, which obviously is causing me to steer clear of the public. This game should come down to the wire, and one I believe Minny is able to steal. Their team total is a tad low. I make their number at 25.5. This impact game could shape what we see in the future. 2/2.5 points is useless to me, so keep them because I don’t want them.
Prediction: Vikings win (+115)
Prediction: Vikings Team Total OVER 24.5 Points (-105)
Atlanta Falcons @ Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) | Over/Under 46.5
Two teams coming off horrendous losses. On one hand, the Los Angeles Rams (my NFC pick), came out in a huge early season test flatter than a soda bottle with the lid left off of it. And on the other was my lifelong team in the pathetic Atlanta Falcons doing what they do best, blowing a late double-digit (16 points) lead. Most people are not expecting much of a contest, and neither am I.
LAR disgusted me last Thursday, I mean truly made me want to gouge out my eyes after throwing my TV off my seventh-floor balcony into oncoming traffic. Sean McVay did not have his team prepared at all, but the loss of LT Andrew Whitworth was a bit more glaring than I thought it would be. Luckily, the Falcons don’t have a Von Miller to notch 127 sacks and 145 pressures on Big Daddy Stafford in this one (Stafford sacked SEVEN times in Week 1). Furthermore, ATL ranked dead last with 18 sacks in 2021. The only true quality on this defense is young superstar CB AJ Terrell and DT stalwart Grady Jarrett. With Atlanta’s defense yielding 27 PPG last year (fourth most), it should simple pitch and catch for this Rams’ offense hungry to get the bad taste out of their mouths.
Although Terrell is the real deal, Cooper Kupp should continue to eat and build off that 13/128/1 game he had on opening night, since he is likely going to continue to see 60% or more of the slot. Plus McVay also said he wants to actually involve new WR Allen Robinson in the game plan – fantasy owners cautiously rejoice. It just seems like too big of a hill for the Falcons to overcome.
The spread is too high here, so I am attacking the Rams on the team total. It’s actually a 28.5 figure, but just to be a little safer I went on PointsBet and decided to drink a juice latte for 26.5. Last season, the defending Super Bowl champs notched 27 points 10 times and had another with 26. As usual though, the Rams are live to drop a 40 bomb on the Dirty Birds. For a team that just dished out 27 points to the Saints, this one should come home for JohnnyVTV.
Prediction: Rams Team Total OVER 26.5 (-180)
Survivor Pick:
LA Rams at home to the Atlanta Falcons. The Denver Broncos lost last week to Seattle… ugg.
Player Props (Official Plays):
Davante Adams O91.5 yards (-115)
Davante Adams O7.5 receptions (-105)
That’s right! We’re going double dipping on Davante. If you ignore the fact that his entire family will be there, and it’s his grandmother’s first ever time watching him – which is stuff I believe in and love to support in a way – Adams dismantled the Chargers’ strong defense last week with a 10/141/1 line on 17 targets, the most for any pass catcher in Week 1. It’s safe to say his old college buddy Derek Carr is a fan of having Tae as his go-to. Vegas is seeing the putrid Arizona Cardinals defense that got molly-whopped by the Kansas City Chiefs last week 44-21 where Patrick Mahomes threw for 360 yards and five tuddies. The eye test didn’t lie there, and neither did the numbers. I’m expecting another monster for him in front of his family against a bad defense. Playing as a near touchdown favorite, the Raiders should be scoring at a high clip. And while I am the founder of the “Tuddies for Tae” movement, laying the -180/-200 for that is just too high. Adams is +1000 to have the most yards for a WR this week as well.
Cooper Kupp O7.5 receptions (-150)
Cooper Kupp O93.5 yards (-110)
TWO DOUBLE DIPS!? Your honor, no objections. You just got done reading how big I am on the Rams scoring this week, so this should come as no surprise. For a guy that is pumped with targets like Kupp is, this is just a standard operating procedure play(s) at this point. The Falcons have a horrendous defense, and I do not expect AJ Terrell to be on Kupp the entire day. After notching over seven grabs (had seven grabs in five games) in 10 games, and 100+ yards (over 93 yards in 15 games) in 11 last season, Kupp Daddy picked up a huge stat line against the Bills. The over machine is in play each and every week, so he should be no exception here. This 93.5 is the best you’ll find out there as some books are hanging 95.5 and 96.5, but I think Kupp eclipses the century mark yet again.
*With the books a little slow on releasing MNF props, check back on Monday for a few more plays.
Summary:
Davante Adams O91.5 yards (-115)
Davante Adams O7.5 receptions (-105)
Cooper Kupp O7.5 receptions (-150)
Cooper Kupp O93.5 yards (-110)
Rams Team Total OVER 26.5 (-180)
Vikings win (+115)
Vikings Team Total OVER 24.5 Points (-105)
Jaguars cover +3.5 (-110)
May your weekend be filled with Espresso Martinis, Sunday gravy, and LOTS of winners!
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
