I mean … Can you ACTUALLY believe it?!? Football is BACK, baby! Kicking off the season, we have what some picked as a Super Bowl preview last year, as well as this year when the Buffalo Bills circle those wagons to the glitz and glam of Hollywood’s streets to battle the defending World Champion Rams. Not only did we draw a butter matchup for the first contest of the year, but something so early figures to have major implications throughout this season. So, who ya got?
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Los Angeles Rams | Over/Under 52.5
This is what dreams are made of. It’s not only a fire song from the Lizzie McGuire Movie, my childhood crush, but perfectly applicable to how all football fans are feeling on Thursday night from SoFi Stadium. The Bills went down in heartbreaking fashion after Gabe Davis delivered the four-TD outing that raised him as the second coming of Jesus Christ - when Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill went into sicko mode to steal one in the waning seconds (and eventually overtime). On the other side, LA was saved by the white knight in shining armor, otherwise known as “Big Daddy Stafford.” With both teams viewed as the favorites from each conference, what should we be looking for in the first game?
First thing’s first. For anybody that did not know, Rams HC Sean McVay is not only 5-0 SU in Week 1 matchups, but his average margin of victory is 16.6. Now, this will likely be his stiffest opening day game yet. What Buffalo did so well last year was “play defense.” Their 272.8 YPG, 163 passing YPG, and 17 PPG all led the league, while they ranked third in takeaways (30). On paper it looks good, right? Well, of course, because they played a ridiculously easy schedule, which also stat padded against horrendous teams.
LA can carve this unit up anywhere on the field. Passing wise, Stafford should elevate from his 2021 form where he threw 41 scores on almost 4,900 yards. They should take full advantage of a defense throwing out taxi squad corners like Dane Jackson and Kaiir Elam (starting CB Tre White still recovering from an ACL tear). Let’s see how much fun they have covering “the over machine” in Cooper Kupp, coming off the best full season in wide receiver history, in addition to newcomer Allen Robinson. Furthermore, the area where Buffalo fell weakest was in the run game (109.8 YPG - #13). With a healthy-ish Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson punch, the Rams should still be able to impose their will on a good front seven that added OLB Von Miller, who just won a Super Bowl with the Rams. Los Angeles has a significant advantage over Buffalo in almost every department.
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If you’re the Bills, it would be gigantic to get this first win. For what feels like an eternity, Buffalo has been a Super Bowl favorite. But seriously, it’s the third straight season where so many people are like, “this is the year” even though Johnny V says it’s clearly not. While I have been saying for years that the Bills need to start implementing the run game more, they have yet to fully commit. Since 2019, the Bills have 1,337 carries (12th most), but if you removed Josh Allen‘s 333 carries during that span, they would have only 1,004 - good for dead last in the league. What I am getting at is they need to start handing off to backs more. If we remove the win against Ravens (and blowout victories), the only team to beat the Rams with less than 30 carries was the Titans, which was because Stafford decided to throw a pick party.
Obviously Stefon Diggs is a huge weapon, and Davis is supposed to be the “biggest breakout star of the century,” but implementing the ground game against a defense with either stars or scrubs could be the formula for this team. Though LA added a future HOF linebacker in Bobby Wagner, there is still a lot of uncertainty behind Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. Using the run (including Allen’s legs) and play action could put significant stress on this unit. The biggest glare I have on Buffalo this season is their loss of OC Brian Daboll. While many dismiss this, he is the catalyst that helped propel Allen and this offense to soaring heights, and though it’s an extremely talented group, I believe there will be times that this loss will shine bright.
It’s no secret I picked the Rams to be my NFC Champion this season. With my preseason Rams Super Bowl pick last year, I feel like I understand this team extremely well. Stafford has said he feels like he has a better understanding of this offense in year two, which is scary. In the last 11 seasons, Super Bowl winners in Week 1 of the following season are 8-3 with the winners averaging an 11-point margin of victory. I would have thought this line got moved to three, but it seems unlikely. You can keep the points, #RAMSHOUSE is taking this one outright as they drop a 30 bean on opening night.
Prediction: Rams cover (+2.5) and win
Player Props
Cooper Kupp O7.5 receptions (-102)
In 10 of his 17 regular season games in 2021, Kupp had at least eight grabs. In five of them, he had seven. While he was targeted double-digit times in all but three contests, we should be in for another season of Stafford religiously pumping his favorite wideout. In what could be a shootout, we should see these two hookup a lot against a secondary running delivery boys and plumbers to stop him.
Cooper Kupp O88.5 yards (-114)
Although I am not always a huge fan of transferring trends and stats from one year to the next, see above. Kupp is in for an opening night biggie. He hit 100 receiving yards in 11 out of 17 games, and only failed to record less than 89 yards once. It’s hard to see Kupp not expose this weak cornerback room on a high target volume.
Allen Robinson 1st TD (+1000)
First tuddy scorer is one of the most exciting and favorite bets for me… and a lot of other people. A lot of times there is no rhyme or reason to it, and it can include elements of randomness. Taking Kupp (+600) is a pretty good value, but I want to change it up. Because there will be so much attention on number 10, Buffalo might sleep a little bit on A-Rob. Coming off a bad season where he had the worst case of senioritis since my senior year of high school, I think LA will want to get Robinson involved early. It may leave a big body wideout on a mismatch near the goal line.
Gabe Davis Anytime TD (+145)
I’m not on the Gabe Davis bandwagon. I think if not for one outlier game against a horrible defense, he would barely be regarded as a WR5 in fantasy this year. With that being said, he did manage 11 total touchdowns (including postseason) last year. His big frame and catch in traffic ability creates mismatches. There should be some moments in the game where Jalen Ramsey will line up with Stefon Diggs.
Josh Allen O37.5 rush yards (-130)
In 11 of 17 games last year, Josh Allen eclipsed 38 rushing yards. After notching a career high 122 carries, it’s plausible to think the Bills’ star QB will be on the move plenty in 2022. Although Bobby Wagner is now controlling the middle of the Rams’ defense, he is not exactly the same player he was in Seattle during those Legion of Boom years. There should be plenty of chances for Allen to pull the ball down himself and scamper. Though LA didn’t face too many mobile QB’s last season, they allowed Kyler Murray (twice) and Tyler Huntley to clear 38 rush yards.
