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Last week could have very well been the WORST beat I had in my entire life with Seattle. Calling for an immediate internal investigation of the horrid officiating across several games and then I will be calling for their heads. Regardless, we are still very butter in 2022, and it’s time to get back on track.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
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Arizona Cardinals (-3) @ Seattle Seahawks | Over/Under 50.5
The Cardinals on the card for the fifth straight week? The Seahawks on the slate for the third straight? AND they play each other? The world might just explode.
So, remember that CPOY ticket on Geno Smith prior to Week 5 that was +2000? Well, after Sunday’s terrific performance, that number is down to +600. That’s what we call value. Truth be told, this is one of the more underrated rivalries in the last half-decade. 9 of the last 12 games have been decided by one score. The Seahawks have had some trouble against the Cards over the last few years, especially at home. Zona has won six of the last nine in Seattle and scored 24 points in five of the last seven. For whatever reason, they found success in the Pacific Northwest. While I don’t discount it, those Cardinal teams were better… or at least tougher than they are now. Seattle has a perennial MVP candidate in Geno Smith right now who leads the NFL in completion percentage and passer rating. Tyler Lockett is top 10 in yards and catches, DK Metcalf is one of the best 1v1 matchups in the NFL and despite losing stud RB Rashaad Penny, they have a young buck horse in Kenny Walker ready to take over. For a Seahawk offense that is averaging 25.4 PPG (7th best in NFL, 3rd best in NFC), it still seems like they have an opportunity to climb even higher. Facing a bottom-12 scoring defense in Arizona (24.6 PPG), they should be able to drop at least 27 on Sunday.
Due to a couple of head-scratching calls, and some unlucky breaks, my string of successfully backing or fading the Cards has come to an end. I don’t have an exact string - I would have to check the archives- but I do believe I was on the right side of about nine consecutive games. Philly had the cover against them last week too, but it was one of THOSE weeks for me. I have grown to understand this team better than anybody in the sports betting business, but I have to say for the first time maybe ever, I’m having a tough time with them this week. On one hand, I know how well they play in Seattle and how much of a wagon they are on the road (14-5 SU/ATS since 2020), but on the other, they are just not very good. While the defense has significantly outplayed expectations, it’s still capable of being smoked by an efficient offense which is what they are dealing with. Plus, they have always had trouble with Lockett. In fact, over the last four games, he has 33 catches for 480 yards and six tuddies. And don’t forget that 200-yard, three-score game from him in 2020.
Ultimately with how bad these defenses can be - particularly Seattle’s - this game could come down to a shootout and be determined by whoever has the rock last. I am looking for Smith, Lockett, Kyler “Rugrat” Murray, and Hollywood Brown to all have nice games contributing to a higher-scoring affair that is currently set as the second-highest total on the board for Week 6.
Arizona seems like a public play this week with this spread getting knocked around from 2.5 to 3. My look is to be against the Cards this week and back the Seahawks. Even with a horrendous defense, I believe Seattle has enough to drop 27+ points to not only cover the spread, but win outright, so have at it.
Prediction: Seahawks win and cover (+3)
Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) | Over/Under 42.5
This line opened at 5.5, so I don’t really know what the hell happened. Seems like the public cracked the Eagles this week, which is the driving force behind this line.
Dallas has somehow found its footing after the injury to Dak Prescott in Week 1. Cooper “Big Time” Rush has stepped in like a champ leading this team to a 4-0 SU/ATS mark since his first start in Week 2. I mentioned it last week, this Cowboys team is like a carbon copy of the San Francisco 49ers - to a lesser degree. With steady QB play, productivity in the run game (from multiple sources), good receiving options, and fantastic defensive play, there is no reason the Cowboys can’t hang with pretty much anybody at the moment. Of course, the key is that their defense is holding opponents to just 14 PPG (3rd best in NFL) which doesn’t hurt. Where Dallas can really take advantage though is in the second half. Despite the Eagles being the 5th highest-scoring team in the NFL (27 PPG), they have only managed to put 29 points total in the second half in their five games thus far (compared to 106 points in the first half). With the way this Philly team has let off the gas after halftime this season, it’s also prime territory to think about grabbing the Cowboys on the 2H spread as they have averaged 12 points here in the last three contests. For a team that has beaten the Eagles in seven of the last nine contests, laying over a touchdown to Dallas is way too much, in my opinion, especially considering the fact that the market is overrating Philly right now.
I was a believer in the Eagles from the start of the year for at least the division and maybe a solid playoff run. I don’t believe the undefeated train stops here but covering this big line that has gotten steamed is not something I am envisioning. The offense has been one of the premier run teams thus far while implementing a nice dose of passing attacks. For whatever reason though, they have not gone fully committed to getting AJ Brown the volume that he should have (14 targets past two games). I could see them getting after Dallas early, but “coasting” later on. Without spewing out all the impressive metrics the Eagles have under their belt this year, laying almost a full seven points to a division rival is wild.
It seems to me Philly marches on with their sixth consecutive win, but does not cover the full game spread. If anything, I believe they cover the first-half line (-3.5) after starting fast, but Dallas gets the full game.
Prediction: Cowboys cover (+6.5)
Prediction: Eagles 1H (-3.5)
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs | Over/Under 53.5
Keeping this short and sweet. The Bills-Chiefs is the highest-leverage matchup of the season. The winner ultimately is in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the AFC, as well as the MVP race. While neither would be set in stone, they have a significant advantage. Here is the quick skinny.
The Buffalo Bills are the team I went on record with saying they are overrated frauds. People crowned them as the “IT” team despite not having won or even appeared in any meaningful game in the Josh Allen era. While I think that is still true, I also thought the Chiefs were not the team people thought they would be. Realistically, KC should have lost to the Chargers and the Raiders and may have been in a different game if the Bucs didn’t fumble the opening kickoff. Since neither team truly impresses me, I think it’s fair to go with an unbiased opinion of two teams I don’t like - if that makes sense.
I have to roll with Buffalo here. Patrick Mahomes to me is a SIGNIFICANTLY better QB than Allen, but that still does not diminish how good the Bills’ signal-caller is. Buffalo has the better overall squad in my opinion in pretty much every facet of the game. Even if we ignore the 38-20 beatdown KC got from these guys last year, Buffalo has too many different ways to beat this defense that ranks bottom 10 in points allowed (25 PPG) and takeaways (4). We saw how bad this secondary was cooked by Davante Adams last week. Now they have to deal with two guys that can torture man coverage in Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis (who put up four tuddies and 201 yards in the playoff game). The Bills have an offense that can hang 40 and a defense that creates takeaways and gets after the passer.
People are going to come with the fact that Mahomes is a home dog for the first time in his career (41 games), and 7-0-1 as an underdog in general. That’s great. If we only lived off trends, then we wouldn’t be handicappers. I admit that it’s tough not taking Mahomes getting points, so that’s why I am taking Buffalo outright and laying the money.
Prediction: Bills ML (-140)
Survivor Pick:
The Bills were a total layup last weekend. We’re double-dipping against the Steelers, so that means it’s about time for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Tom Brady going through a divorce means he should put up 50 on Sunday.
Teaser:
The Teasers have been PUMPING for the first month of the year. Let’s keep it going.
Cowboys +12.5 (Originally +5.5)
For the second week in a row, we have the same two teams as the teaser legs! Dallas is over a TD dog to the Eagles which is a little overexaggerated because of the Philly record at the moment. I think Philly stays hot, but I am not buying them on the large line. They likely start out fast but take their foot off the gas in the second half, which will allow the Cowboys to cover the number.
Seahawks +9 (Originally +3)
I actually think Seattle wins outright, but we are getting almost double-digit points here. It just seems like too good of a proposition. Look for the Hawks to drop maybe a 30 bean this week on an Arizona defense that has played a little over expectations. It’s Tyler Lockett‘s week, so he should be in for a monster.
Summary:
Seahawks +3/ML (-110/+120)
Cowboys +6.5 (-110)
Eagles 1H -3.5 (+100)
Bills ML (-140)
Teaser: Seahawks 9/Cowboys +12.5 (-120)
Survivor: Buccaneers
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
