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Bills vs. Patriots prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

Its a showdown atop the AFC East Sunday in Foxborough when the Patriots (11-2) host the Bills (9-4).

New England can clinch the AFC East with a win over Buffalo. New England currently holds a two-game lead in the division and won the first matchup of the season back in Week 5 in Buffalo, 23-20.

The game features a compelling battle between last year’s MVP, Josh Allen, against the current favorite in the MVP market, Drake Maye. Allen and the Bills’ offense is more of a grind it out, smash-mouth attack while Maye and the Pats are known for their efficiency and precision.

Matchup to Watch: New England Run Defense vs. Bills’ Rushing Attack

The Pats’ defense ranks Top 10 in many metrics. They are especially stout against the run, which could challenge the Bills and specifically, running back James Cook. The Bills’ bell cow back is the NFL’s second-leading rusher with 1,308yds (trails only Jonathan Taylor (1,356yds).

Lets take a deeper dive into this week’s matchup between the Bills and the Patriots.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates courtesy of Rotoworld, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to Watch the Bills vs. Patriots live Sunday

  • Date: Sunday, December 14, 2025
  • Time: 1:00PM EST
  • Site: Gillette Stadium
  • City: Foxborough, MA
  • Network/Streaming: CBS

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered at NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for the Bills at the Patriots

The latest odds as of Tuesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Bills (-115), Patriots (-105)
  • Spread: Bills -1.5
  • Total: 50.5 points

This game opened at Bills -1.0 with the Game Total set at 49.5.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for Buffalo at New England

  • Bills Starting QB: Josh Allen
    Last Game: 12/7 vs. Cincinnati – 22-28, 251yds, 3TDs, 0INTs, Sacked 3 times, 9 carries for 78yds rushing
    Season: 13GP, 265-378, 3083yds, 22TDs, 10INTs, Sacked 31 times, 87 carries for 487yds rushing
  • Patriots Starting QB: Drake Maye
    Last Game: 12/1 vs. Giants – 24-31, 282yds, 2TDs, 0INTs, Sacked 3 times, 6 carries for 12yds rushing
    Season: 13GP, 276-386, 3412yds, 23TDs, 6INTs, Sacked 40 times, 81 carries for 319yds rushing

Bills at Patriots: Team Stats, Betting Trends

  • The Bills have won 12 of their last 20 games as a road favorite
  • The Bills are 6-7 ATS overall this season
  • The Patriots have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games as an underdog
  • The Patriots are 8-4-1 ATS overall this season
  • 5 of the Bills’ last 6 road games stayed UNDER the Total
  • The OVER has cashed in 6 of Buffalo’s 13 games overall this season (6-7)
  • The OVER has cashed in 7 of New England’s 13 games this season (7-6)

Bills Player Injuries

  • DT Joey Bosa (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • OT Spencer Brown (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • WR Joshua Palmer (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • LB Terrel Bernard (elbow) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • TE Dalton Kincaid (hamstring) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • S Cole Bishop (undisclosed/left last week’s game due to cramping) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • DT Ed Oliver (triceps) is eligible to return from the IR but no further timetable has been published

Patriots Player Injuries

  • G Jared Wilson (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • DT Khyiris Tonga (chest) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • S Brenden Schooler (ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • RB Terrell Jennings (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
Patriots can clinch AFC East with win over Bills
Devin McCourty and Mike Florio discuss the AFC playoff picture and how the New England Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 15.

Rotoworld Best Bets

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best Bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Bills and the Patriots

  • Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Buffalo Bills at -1.5.
  • Total: Rotoworld Bet is recommending a play on the OVER on the Game Total of 50.5.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest betting info & tools for NFL with player news, game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:
● Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
● Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
● Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)