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Colts vs. Chiefs prediction: Odds, expert picks, QB matchup, injury update, betting trends, and stats

It comes as no surprise that Sunday’s game at Arrowhead between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Indianapolis Colts features a team fighting for its playoff life against a team battling for the league’s best record. Few, however, predicted it would be the Chiefs (5-5) sitting on the brink of missing the playoffs while the Colts (8-2) would be one of, if not the best team in the NFL.

Winners of nine straight AFC West titles, the Chiefs look to be long shots to make it a complete decade atop the division. Following two straight losses, they sit three games behind first-place Denver. In fact, if the playoffs started today, Patrick Mahomes and co. would NOT be in the mix for the Lombardi Trophy. The biggest issue really seems to be that there is not one aspect of KC’s game that you can point to as the sole reason for the Chiefs’ fall from their ivory tower. They have simply become average in too many areas - run defense, rushing offense, scoring offense, etc...

No such mediocrity in Indianapolis. The ascending Colts boast the league’s top offense in total yards and points per game. Jonathan Taylor is having an MVP season and Daniel Jones has matured into a consistent, reliable signal-caller. The Colts’ point differential of +115 leads the NFL (Seattle is second at +101). Coming off their bye, Indy is as healthy as they have been since training camp and appear poised to push for the top overall seed in the AFC.

Matchup to Watch: Jonathan Taylor vs. the Kansas City defense
Taylor is averaging a staggering six yards per carry. Will not be a surprise to see Taylor and the Colts look to shorten the game and limit Chiefs’ possessions by consistently running the ball.

Lets take a deeper dive into this week’s matchup between the Colts and the Chiefs.

NBC Sports has all the latest info and analysis you need, including how to tune in for kickoff, odds from DraftKings, player news and updates courtesy of Rotoworld, and of course our predictions and best bets for the game from our staff of experts.

Game Details and How to watch the Colts vs. Chiefs live Sunday

  • Date: Sunday, November 23, 2025
  • Time: 1:00PM EST
  • Site: GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
  • City: Kansas City, MO
  • Network/Streaming: CBS

Want to check out the other games on the NFL schedule this week? We’ve got you covered right here on NBC Sports with all the matchup, venue, game-time and TV/streaming info so you won’t miss any of the action!

Game odds for the Colts at the Chiefs

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

  • Moneyline: Indianapolis Colts (+154), Kansas City Chiefs (-185)
  • Spread: Chiefs -3.5
  • Total: 50.5 points

This game opened at Chiefs -3.5 with the Game Total set at 49.0.

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!

Quarterback Matchup for Indianapolis at Kansas City

  • Colts Starting QB: Daniel Jones
    Last Game: 11/9 vs. Atlanta - 19-26, 255yds, 1TD, 1INT, Sacked 7 times, 7 carries for 53yds rushing
    Season: 10GP, 223-319, 2659yds, 15TDs, 7INTs, Sacked 21 times, 40 carries for 143yds rushing
  • Chiefs Starting QB: Patrick Mahomes
    Last Game: 11/16 at Denver - 29-45, 276yds, 1TD, 1INT, Sacked 3 times, 1 carry for 3yds rushing
    Season: 10GP, 233-361, 2625yds, 18TDs, 6INTs, Sacked 20 times, 48 carries for 288yds rushing

Colts at Chiefs team stats, betting trends

  • The Chiefs have won 4 of their last 5 games against the AFC South
  • The Colts have covered the spread in 6 of their 10 games this season (6-3-1)
  • 5 of the Chiefs’ last 7 home games have stayed UNDER the Total
  • The OVER has cashed in just 3 of the Chiefs’ 10 games this season (3-7)
  • The OVER has cashed in 6 of the Colts’ 10 games this season
  • The Chiefs are 5-5 ATS this season

Colts Player Injuries

  • DE Tyquan Lewis (groin) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • WR Anthony Gould (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • DE Samson Ebukam (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • LB Jaylon Carlies (ankle) was designated Wednesday to return from the IR
  • CB Charvarius Ward (concussion) was designated Wednesday to return from the IR

Chiefs Player Injuries

  • RB Isiah Pacheco (knee) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • LG Kingsley Suamataia (concussion) is listed as questionable for Sunday’s game
  • S Nazeeh Johnson (shoulder) was designated Tuesday to return from the IR

Rotoworld Best Bets

Please bet responsibly. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the National Gambling Helpline at 1-800-522-4700.

Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NFL calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for this week’s game between the Colts and the Chiefs

  • Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
  • Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the Kansas City Chiefs at -3.5.
  • Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 50.5.

Rotoworld has you covered with all the latest betting info & tools for NFL with player news, game predictions, player props, futures, and trends!

Follow our experts on socials to keep up with all the latest content from the staff:

● Jay Croucher (@croucherJD)
● Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper)
● Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports)
● Trysta Krick (@Trista_Krick)