The MVP race in the NFL has been a whirlwind this season, but three names have remained in the race over the last two months: Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, and Josh Allen.
These three are neck-and-neck for the award despite Stafford being a heavy betting favorite and Allen being a long shot of the three (Maye somewhere in the middle). Bo Nix has entered the chat for MVP with his five-game winning drives this season, but is an unlikely winner, especially after Allen and the Bills completed a 21-point comeback win over the Patriots. Is it might be time to consider Allen winning back-to-back MVP’s?
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NFL MVP race: Matthew Stafford (-300), Drake Maye (+425), Josh Allen (+550)
Despite Matthew Stafford being a heavy favorite to win MVP, the door is wide open for Drake Maye and Josh Allen. Stafford and Maye would be first-time winners, while Allen won his first MVP last season with 40 total touchdowns and a 13-4 record (No. 2 seed).
There are so many routes to each player winning MVP, but I tried to break them down in the simplest terms, along with my favorite pick. Here are the basic stats of the three quarterbacks, along with the final three games of their schedules.
When you look at these stats, Allen and Stafford are tied for total touchdowns (37), Stafford leads the league in touchdown passes, and second in passing yards, while Maye has the edge in completion percentage (70.9%) and total yards (3,929). Stafford has a league-low five interceptions entering Thursday Night Football, but will be without Davante Adams for the game and possibly longer.
Player | Passs Yards | Pass TDs | INT | Rush Yards | Rush Tds | Comp% | Week 16 | Week 17 | Week 18 |
Stafford | 3,722 | 37 | 5 | -8 | 0 | 66.4% | @ SEA | @ ATL | vs ARZ |
Maye | 3,567 | 23 | 7 | 362 | 4 | 70.9% | @ BAL | @ NYJ | vs MIA |
Allen | 3,276 | 25 | 10 | 535 | 12 | 70.0% | @ CLE | vs BAL | vs NYJ |
If Stafford and the Rams lose on Thursday Night Football (tonight) to the Seahawks, then the door opens a little more for Maye and Allen to win MVP. The Rams play the Falcons and Cardinals over the final two games, which will be important games if they drop the contest in Seattle. As of now, Los Angeles owns the tiebreaker over Seattle since they beat them 21-19, but Thursday Night’s matchup could flip flop that into the Seahawks favor and the Rams would drop to No. 5 seed hindering Stafford’s case.
Chicago and San Francisco could also tie Los Angeles and Seattle for the best record if the Seahawks beat the Rams, and the Bears and 49ers win this weekend, meaning now there are more than one team vying for the No. 1 seed. In reality, Green Bay and Philadelphia are still alive for the NFC’s top spot too, so the NFC could be a crap shoot. If the Rams beat the Seahawks, then Stafford likely locks up the MVP, but if they lose, he may have lost his last chance at MVP forever (37-years-old).
If Maye and the Patriots lose to the Ravens on NBC during Sunday Night Football, there is a good chance that Maye is now third in the MVP race and Allen catapults him. The Bills also play the Ravens the following week, which is a great scenario for Allen. If Maye and Stafford both lose this week and Allen goes off against Cleveland, then beats the Ravens on primetime the following week, something Maye couldn’t do, all of a sudden Allen could be the favorite entering Week 18.
Maye 100-percent needs to beat Baltimore this weekend, then perhaps take the No. 1 seed from Denver, but at the very least lock up the AFC East and the No. 2 seed. The Patriots are three-point underdogs at Baltimore this weekend, so the writing could be on the wall for Maye. Granted, the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins to end the season are the two best possible opponents for Maye to stat pad and collect wins against, but like Stafford, this week could be a deal-breaker for the MVP and an avenue for Allen.
There is also a narrative I thought of that could be completely wrong, or right on the nose. Now that Patrick Mahomes is injured and the Chiefs are eliminated from the postseason (dynasty over?), the NFL needs a new face of the league and could move quickly. Allen is the perfect pivot to be the new face of the league.
Allen had no stars out of high school, put Wyoming on the map with two bowl appearances and 56 total touchdowns in two seasons. He then worked on his mechanics entering the pros and became a MVP and one of the highest paid players in history, not to mention he’s married to an incredible actress. Allen is the guy for the NFL to market and focus on moving forward. Allen “stealing” this MVP would not be the least bit surprising to me.
The final three games of the season is a dangerous time to be betting MVP, but Josh Allen is the danger. When you think of 300 total yards and four touchdowns, you think of him. When you think of 21-point comebacks, you think of him. When you think of a rollercoaster of emotion with interceptions, touchdowns, and fourth-down conversions on your own 28-yard-line in the first quarter, you think of him.
I’m rolling with Allen at +550 odds to win back-to-back MVP’s and come out of left field to take this award away from first-time hopefuls, Stafford and Maye. Allen was +2500 two weeks ago, +1500 last week and +550 now.
Pick: Josh Allen to win MVP (1 unit)
Season Record: 113-82-1 (58%) +23.61 units | 10.17 ROI%
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