Week 10 was another winning week and Week 11 started with a 4-1 +3.3 unit Thursday Night. Let’s get over +30 units on the season and have a day, as I like to say! Best of luck!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Bengals at Steelers (-5.5): O/U 48.5
I’ve enjoyed fading the Steelers over the past four games. We went 3-1 ATS and nailed the Bengals ML at +225 when the Steelers’ skid started. Now, the two teams meet again and the stakes are a little different.
Baltimore is heating up the division and Pittsburgh can’t afford a loss here. The Steelers have a positive matchup on offense with Trey Hendrickson out for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s defense has allowed 24 or more points in eight straight games. Pittsburgh is 3-2 when scoring 24-plus points (lost to CIN, GB). The Bengals defense is being gashed for big plays, allowing the highest touchdown rate, and hasn’t improved as the season has gone on.
I think the Steelers cover the -5.5 and win by double-digits. Mike Tomlin has only been swept by the Bengals twice in is career, 2021 and 2009. I’d hate to see it come against a 40-year old Joe Flacco and this defense.
Pick: Steelers -5.5 (1.5 units)
Buccaneers at Bills (-6.5): O/U 46.5
Tampa Bay has lost two of the past three games and four of their six wins on the season have come by three or fewer points outside of San Francisco and New Orleans. I am grading this team lower than a lot of other people and don’t see any resemblance of the Bucs team from Weeks 1-3.
Tampa Bay has quietly fell into the bottom five of the NFL for passing success rate and offensive third down percentage over the past month. Buffalo is in a bounce back spot at home and coming off one of its worst offensive performances in recent memory.
I like Buffalo to cover the -5.5 at -125 odds and lean the Team Total Over. The Bills’ offense ranks top five in the NFL in points per drive at home, while the Bucs offense is 10th-worst since Week 6.
Pick: Bills -5.5 (1 unit)
Ravens (-7.5) at Browns: O/U 38.5
I’m still riding this train and ain’t getting off! Baltimore is hot since the bye week and all the dominoes look like they will fall in their favor to win the AFC North. The Ravens and Browns met earlier in this season in Baltimore and the Ravens pummeled the Browns, 41-17.
I don’t see much changing, maybe less points, in the second meeting. Cleveland is one of the worst offenses in passing success rate, offensive EPA, and yards allowed per drive or in general on defense. Baltimore’s defense has been climbing the ranks over the past four-to-five games and getting healthier has been the key.
Dillon Gabriel is one of the worst at passes of 10 or more yards, 20 or more, and relies on the short game, plus Quinshon Judkins. Baltimore will stack the box and continue to torment opposing quarterbacks with impressive completion rates and touchdown rates to quarterbacks over the past four games. I like Baltimore to cover the -7.5 and prefer a -7.
Pick: Ravens -7.5 (1 unit)
Packers (-7.5) at Giants: O/U 42.5
Since the Packers put up 21 points in the fourth quarter against the Steelers, Green Bay has scored 20 total points on 17 drives through eight quarters of football. The offense is having serious issues, primarily with Jordan Love.
Love recorded 7.0 and 4.0 yards per completion in the past two games with zero touchdowns and one interception. Josh Jacobs was the offense against Philadelphia, and he gets a positive matchup against the Giants, whereas New York is in a weird spot at home after firing their head coach.
Green Bay being at home for two straight and going to MetLife to face a Giants team led by Jameis Winston, you don’t know what you’re getting. I don’t love that for Green Bay. It’s the Giants’ first quarter +1.5 for me. I can’t back the Pack until I see the offense back on track.
Pick: Giants 1Q +1.5 (1 unit)
Panthers at Falcons (-4): O/U 41.5
Atlanta opted to not have a bye week following their trip back from overseas, which normally puts teams in a fade spot. 16 of the last 18 teams to play without a break post-international games have trailed or been tied entering the fourth quarter, but can you trust Carolina? No.
The Panthers defense has quietly played well over the last two games and three of four outside of the Bills beatdown. Carolina’s offense, hasn’t mustered up much of anything with 45 total points over the last four games. The Falcons offense managed 48 points in the past two games, but 20 in the two previous. Both teams have been horrid on third downs lately and turnovers have been issue all season.
I like the Under 41.5 in this NFC South matchup. The first meeting was a 30-0 win for Atlanta. We will for sure see a more competitive game, but I still think getting to 20 points for both teams will be a struggle.
Pick: Panthers vs Falcons Under 41.5 (1 unit)
Brock Purdy O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs Cardinals
Brock Purdy makes his return after being out since Week 2. In two games of action, Purdy tossed four touchdowns and four interceptions!
Well, Arizona is the first game since his injury and that’s a good team to fix his turnover issues. Purdy tossed two picks against Arizona last season after throwing eight touchdowns and zero interceptions in 2023 and 2022 against them. I think he could get back to that with most of his arsenal healthy, including Jauan Jennings, George Kittle, Ricky Pearsall, Christian McCaffrey, and Brian Robinson Jr.
Arizona has grabbed an interception in two straight games and four of the past five, but I am fading that. I grabbed Purdy to go Under 0.5 interceptions at -101 odds. I like his Over passing yards as a pivot if you don’t like interception props.
Pick: Brock Purdy Under 0.5 Interceptions (1 unit)
Season Record: 89-57-1 (61%) +27.99 units | 15.88 ROI%
Week 10 Record: 7-7-1 +0.82 units
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