Vaughn Dalzell shares his best bets for the NFL Week 16 slate, including the Bills at Chargers on Peacock, and Eagles vs Giants on Christmas.
Giants at Eagles (-14): O/U 44.0
The city of Philadelphia gets a Christmas present as they welcome the Giants to town in hopes of breaking a season-long three-game losing streak.
The Eagles dropped three straight versus the 49ers, Cowboys, and Seahawks, which sets them up for a beautiful bounce-back spot at home against the Giants.
New York failed to score in the first quarter of last year’s two meetings versus Philly and three straight. The Giants have three first-quarter points over the past four matchups against the Eagles.
The Giants rank last in the NFL with 1.4 first-quarter points per game and last in first-half points per game at 5.4. New York didn’t score in the second half versus New Orleans getting dominated on the road and the Giants now play back-to-back road games for the first time in over a month.
Seattle failed to score in the first quarter versus Philadelphia last week and I believe the Eagles can replicate that at home and get out to an early lead and start versus Tommy Devito and company.
I grabbed the Giants 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 at -120 odds and the Eagles 1Q -3 at -125 odds. I would go out to -140 on both. The 1Q spread of -3.5 would be a half-unit play for me, but I like the chances Philly leads 7-0 or better after the first quarter.
Pick: Giants 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 (1u), Eagles 1Q -3 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Bills (-11.5) at Chargers: O/U 44.0
The Bills were one of the last teams to take a bye week (Week 13) and since then, Buffalo has looked much better with a dominant win over Dallas (31-10) and a thrilling victory over the Chiefs (20-17) in Arrowhead.
The Bills offense was clicking early in those two games, scoring 21 and 14 points. On the other hand, it appears the Chargers have quit after permitting 87 combined points in the last two games and eight straight quarters of points allowed.
Five of the eight wins for Buffalo have come by double-digits and this is a good spot for that to happen again. In those five wins, Buffalo scored 14 or more first-half points all five times and 14-plus points in seven out of eight overall wins (Giants).
I have to run it back on Buffalo’s 1H Team Total of 13.5 at -145 odds to the Over. I’d pass at 14.5 since 14 is a key number here. Bills -11.5 would be my pivot play out to -13. You can watch this game on Peacock streaming Saturday Night.
Pick: Bills 1H Team Total Over 13.5 (Risk 1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Sign up to stream the NFL Holiday Exclusive between the Buffalo Bills and the Los Angeles Chargers, only on Peacock, Saturday, Dec. 23 at 7:30 p.m. ET. Visit PeacockTV.com/NFL for more details.
Patriots at Broncos (-6.5): O/U 34.5
The Patriots and Broncos meet for the lowest total on the board, which actually dropped from 37.5 to 34.5.
New England’s offense averages 12.3 points per game on the road (31st) and since the bye week, the Patriots have scored 45 points over the last four games (11.2 ppg). New England only scored more than 17 points once on the road this season (Pittsburgh).
Denver is coming off three straight road games against the Texans, Chargers, and Lions. Denver scored 24 or fewer points in all three games (19.3 ppg) and return to Denver to play a competitive Patriots’ defense in altitude -- that isn’t an ideal remedy for offensive success.
The Broncos had three straight wins out of the bye week before going on the road for three weeks, scoring 24 or fewer points in five of those six games (22.0 ppg), so I don’t trust either offense here.
Give me the Under 34.5 at -110 odds down to the closing line, which I presume will be between 33.0 to 34.0. There’s a 45% chance of snow and this is also the coldest game of the week at 36 degrees.
Pick: Under 34.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Commanders at Jets (-3): O/U 37.5
These two teams are a combined 1-9 in the last 10 games, so don’t expect fireworks when the Jets and Commanders meet up at MetLife.
The Jets have lost five of the last six games with a random second-half explosion against the Texans as the lone win. New York scored 13 or fewer points in five of those six games.
Washington has lost five straight games and scored 20 or fewer points in four consecutive. The Commanders lost its previous game at the Rams out of the bye week, and now fly back across the country to face the Jets.
Jacoby Brissett could replace Sam Howell at QB for Washington, like he did last week, while Zach Wilson is still under for New York. Go Under 37.5 (-115) down to 35 between the Jets and Commanders.
Pick: Under 37.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 56-32-1 (63.6%) +19.07u
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