After a 5-5 -1.82 week, it’s a bounce back week for me! Chicago heads to Detroit and like everyone else, I’m looking at the Lions off a loss, but through a different lens. Pittsburgh hosts Seattle and I am rolling with an Aaron Rodgers prop, along with a scary Under play in Baltimore versus Cleveland. Here are my three best bets for Sunday’s Week 2 slate!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Bears at Lions (-6): O/U 46.5
Dan Campbell and the Lions have been terrific ATS off a loss, but with the spread moving from -3.5 and -4.5 in some spots to -6 or -6.5 -- I have to pass.
My favorite bet after waiting a few days for it open is the Lions First Quarter Team Total Over 5.5 at -118 odds, meaning Detroit has to score six or more points in the first quarter. In the last 10 regular season games coming off a loss, Detroit averages 8.1 1Q PPG and scored at least one touchdown six times and three points or less four times.
Chicago has held Detroit under six points in the first quarter four of the past six meetings, so I am going against the grain here. However, you watch that Bears fourth quarter collapse and let me know if you expect Chicago to come out in the first 15 minutes and stop an equally angry Detroit team multiple times.
A first quarter touchdown is listed around -330 to the yes on certain sports books, so I like the chances Detroit gets in the end zone early.
Pick: Lions 1Q Team Total Over 5.5 Points (2 units)
Aaron Rodgers O/U 224.5 Passing Yards vs Seahawks
One of the most surprising yet unsurprising results of Week 1 was Aaron Rodgers getting revenge on the Jets and throwing four touchdowns in the process.
The 41-year-old and former Packer and Jet, went 22-of-30 for 244 yards in the 34-32 win. While Week 2 turns into a DK Metcalf revenge game (hosting Seattle), and the home debut of both Rodgers and Metcalf, I don’t expect nearly as much success through the air.
Brock Purdy threw for 277 yards on 26-of-35 and was injured with turf toe after playing Seattle last week. I doubt Rodgers throws enough to hit the Over, plus his ADOT likely drops off after four sacks. Rodgers had only one deep throw in Week 1 and was 30th in air yards (139) and 31st in air yards per attempt (4.6), per PlayerProfiler.
With the expected pressure and physicality of the new and improved Seahawks defense, I will go Under 224.5 Passing Yards for Rodgers a -110 odds down to 210.5.
Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 224.5 Passing Yards (1.5 units)
Derrick Henry O/U 96.5 Rushing Yards vs Browns
Derrick Henry had a monster game versus the Bills and almost doubled his pre-game line of 80.5 rushing yards, finishing with 169. If you follow me on X, we live bet his Under 177.5 rushing yards at the half and had en electric win when he fumbled late.
This is a sell-high spot going against a divisional opponent who has a stout rush defense. Chase Brown had 43 yards on 21 carries against the Browns and what was most impressive, Brown led the NFL Week 1 with seven missed tackles forced -- something Henry is pretty good at.
Cleveland was gang tackling and using pressure against Cincinnati, something we cannot say for Buffalo’s defense against Baltimore. With 73, 138, and 20 yards in the last three games against the Browns and a 6-1 all-time mark to the Under at this number versus Cleveland, I will go Under 96.5 rushing yards on Henry down to 90.5. I originally played this at 93.5 and it has moved to 96.5.
Pick: Derrick Henry Under 93.5 Rushing Yards (1 unit)
Jonathan Taylor O/U 13.5 Receiving Yards vs Broncos
Jonathan Taylor finished with three receptions for 24 yards and a long of 16 against the Dolphins. He caught his two receptions on a 14-play drive in the second quarter and another on a field goal drive to end the first half, so he was active in the passing game up until it was 20-0.
In Denver’s season-opener, they limited Tennessee’s Tony Pollard to one reception and one target, but he went for 29 yards. The Titans only had two healthy running backs on the roster and never trailed by the eight points that they lost by, so the outcome was a fairly neutral game script, ranking 14th in the NFL per PlayerProfiler (-0.93).
Daniel Jones had the No. 1 game script in the NFL last week (+14), and that just won’t be the case against the Broncos. I think Taylor will be involved in the passing game and is a good bet to go over his 13.5 receiving yards prop at -115 odds up to 15.5.
The over 2.5 receptions is a pivot for +125 odds. I don’t hate Jones Over 30.5 pass attempts, but sacks and designed runs are likely why the juice is shaded to the under.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (1 unit)
Falcons at Vikings (-3.5): O/U 44.5
Both of these teams burned me in Week 1. I had Falcons +2.5 against the Bucs and a missed field goal as time expired ruin the chances of OT, while the Bears up 17-6 looked like a done deal before the Vikings stormed back and won 27-24, ruining my Bears +1.5 ticket.
I want my money back and I think the Falcons can win this game outright. Michael Penix overall was arguably more impressive than JJ McCarthy or Caleb Williams in Week 1, the Falcons defense was able to generate pressure whereas I am not as confident in the Vikings defense, especially stopping Bijan Robinson.
I’ll take the +3.5 (-115) with Atlanta and sprinkle the ML at +154. Oddly enough, Falcons head coach Raheem Morris is 17-9-1 ATS when playing a road game that followed a home game and he’s a better ATS coach on the road (20-17-1) than at home (12-25).
Pick: Falcons +3.5 (1 unit), Falcons ML (0.5 unit)
Geno Smith O/U 0.5 Interceptions vs Chargers
This is Geno Smith’s home debut with the Raiders and also marks another dome start for the veteran. Smith has played only 10 games of his career in a dome and sports a 6-4 record, 71.3 completion percentage, 2,632 passing yards, and 21 touchdowns to 3 interceptions. What really stands out to me is the lack of interceptions.
The Chargers’ defense ranked T-8th in the NFL with 15 interceptions last year and T-23rd in fumbles. This season started off with zero turnovers forced against the Chiefs. Smith himself turned the ball over last week against the Patriots en route to a 20-13 win. Smith threw for 362 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on 24-of-34.
Last year, he threw an interception in 10 of 17 games and had stretches of two-straight and four-consecutive outings with a pick thrown. I think Smith understands that at 34 years old, he won’t get many more starting chances as a starting QB in Week 1 and before he ends up in Cleveland.
The interceptions will be cut down this year, and I think he goes under 0.5 picks against the Chargers at -110 odds out to -130.
Pick: Geno Smith Under 0.5 Interceptions (1 unit)
Season Record: 5-5 (50%) -1.82 units | -14.65% ROI
Week 1 Record: 5-5 (50%) -1.82 units | -14.65% ROI
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