It was another winning week in the NFL and I say, let’s keep this gravy train rolling! Here are four early bets I like for Week 4 and as always, best of luck!
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & team props for every matchup this week on the NFL schedule!
Colts at Rams (-3.5): O/U 49.5
Last game, Jonathan Taylor grabbed two receptions for 13 yards to start the third-quarter drive out of the break against the Titans, already up 20-6. Those two catches put him at 3-0 to the Over on his receiving yards prop.
I was on the Over in Week 2, but played the Under in Week 3, so you can guess where I am going in Week 4. In three games, the Rams’ defense has allowed eight receptions for 25 yards to running backs.
Saquon Barkley had four receptions for nine yards, Tennessee’s backs had two catches for -1 yard, and Dare Ogunbowale of Houston hit 17 yards on two receptions in Week 1, while his fellow running backs had zero catches. I like the chances Taylor gets bottled up in a bounce-back spot for the Rams and road underdog role for the Colts.
Pick: Jonathan Taylor Under 15.5 Receiving Yards (2 units)
Saints at Bills (-15.5): O/U 47.5
The largest spread of the season likely will be this game as Buffalo is -15.5 to -16.5 home favorites against New Orleans.
The Saints are one of two teams in the NFL that have yet to score a point in the first quarter, while Buffalo ranks fourth in the league with 8.0 first quarter points per game. The Bills are an excellent option early because they are so well-scripted and Josh Allen rarely turns the ball over.
The Saints have been outscored 3-0, 6-0, and 21-0 in the last three games. I like the chances Buffalo scores a touchdown in the first quarter, so I will back the -3.5. The first quarter team total Over 6.5 is -190 for Buffalo.
Pick: Bills 1Q -3.5 (2 units)
Commanders (-1.5) at Falcons: O/U 45.5
After being shutout last week against the Panthers, I expect one of the most public plays will be backing the Commanders this Sunday.
However, historically speaking, Atlanta fits strong trends of teams losing by 30+ points and closing as home underdogs the following week, plus a trend with teams scoring three points or fewer then playing the next week -- both trends are 58% and 61% since 2003 and 2014.
If Jayden Daniels (knee) is out and Terry McLaurin (hip) too, I expect Atlanta to close as the favorite, so I will take the +1.5 against Marcus Mariota as of now.
Pick: Falcons +1.5 (1 unit)
Bears at Raiders (-1.5): O/U 47.5
Caleb Williams wasn’t sacked at all last week and it resulted in four touchdown passes and a blowout win over Dallas. Chicago has Las Vegas, Washington, and New Orleans over the next three games, so I think Ben Johnson will have this Bears team ramped up to make a run.
The Raiders have played Weeks 1 (NE) and 3 (WSH) on the East Coast and Week 2 on the West Coast at home. Las Vegas is going back to the West Coast for a home game and since the conference realignment in 2003 -- Las Vegas has the worst ATS mark went traveling from ET to PT.
Give me Chicago again and I have a feeling, I will be betting on the Bears a lot over the next few weeks and against later this season.
Pick: Bears +1.5 (1 unit)
Season Record: 20-10 (66.6%) +8.08 units | 21.73 ROI%
Week 3 Record: 7-4 (63.6%) +2.84 units | 23.4 ROI%
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