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A light schedule in the NHL on Wednesday does not feature a marquee event, however there is marquee talent set to take the ice.
Below you will find an overlay from tonight’s game between the St. Louis Blues and New York Rangers available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
ST. LOUIS BLUES at NEW YORK RANGERS (Rangers -1.5, -115 ML, OU 5.5)
There is a very reasonable argument to be made that the New York Rangers are the most overachieving team in the National Hockey League this season, and that the prices on either side of tonight’s matchup at Madison Square Garden are fair and accurate (St. Louis -105 ML, New York -115 ML).
There is also a very reasonable argument to be made that anytime Igor Shesterkin takes the ice, the Rangers should be prohibitive favorites, regardless of their shortcomings.
Shesterkin’s ’21-’22 campaign is on pace to be one of the best seasons we have seen from a goaltender in the past thirty years, and the recent run of form he has displayed may be his best work all year.
Over the course of his last seven games, Shesterkin has stopped 226 of 236 shots against (.958 save percentage), guiding the Rangers to five wins during this stretch.
A key point of emphasis when considering the season Shesterkin has put together relates to New York’s even-strength issues.
The Rangers rank last in Corsi For % (44.8), second-to-last in Fenwick For % (45.2), second-to-last in percentage of scoring chances in team’s favor (45.2), and 28th in the league in percentage of high-danger scoring chances in team’s favor (46.1) according to hockey-reference.com.
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With the roll Shesterkin has been on, there is no desire to side against the Rangers in New York this evening, however their moneyline price of -115 (implied probability of 53.5%) does not do enough to entice.
The Rangers’ puck line odds of +220 (implied probability of 31.6%), on the other hand, do intrigue.
As poor as New York has been at creating scoring chances in 5-on-5 play this year, they are likely to take on Jordan Binnington this evening, a goaltender whose hot can be scorching and cold can be like ice.
Binnington’s recent form has been all over the map.
In his three most recent wins, Binnington has stopped 81 of 83 shots faced (save percentage of .976), yet he has been equally as bad in his three most recent losses, stopping just 84 of 102 shots against (save percentage of .824).
Even though it is a less likely scenario to unfold, the play in tonight’s game between the Blues and Rangers is New York -1.5 at odds of +220.
NOTE: New York’s job tonight becomes more difficult with Ville Husso being announced as the starter for the Blues, but the rationale behind the play remains - if Igor delivers, the Rangers can cover the puck line.
THE PLAYS
St. Louis Blues at New York Rangers – Rangers -1.5 (+220)
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