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A light, three-game schedule is on tap this evening in the National Hockey League.
Below you will find an overlay from tonight’s Flames v. Blackhawks game available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS at CALGARY FLAMES (Flames -1.5, -240 ML, OU 5.5)
The Chicago Blackhawks have righted the ship following a dreadful start to their season, rattling off victories in five of their last six games.
Tonight, they will take on a Calgary Flames team that can claim to be one of the best teams – if not the best – in the Western Conference, something that comes as a bit of a stunner given their preseason outlook.
Chicago has taken advantage of some of the lesser teams in the NHL over the past two weeks, earning victories over the Vancouver Canucks (26th in my power ratings), Arizona Coyotes (32nd in my power ratings), and the Seattle Kraken (28th in my power ratings).
Now, taking on a Flames team that has won four of five while allowing a mere four goals during that span, the task for the Blackhawks becomes exponentially more difficult.
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Calgary has received above-average contributions across the board, as four of their forwards have scored at least eight goals to date, led by Andrew Mangiapane’s 15, a number that is currently tied for second in the league.
The goaltending duo of Jacob Markstrom and Dan Vladar have been outstanding, combining to allow an average of 1.89 goals against per game, a number that is best in the NHL.
Based on my projections, the Flames defeat the Blackhawks in Calgary by at least two goals 54.3% of the time.
This percentage translates to odds of -119, suggesting Calgary’s puck line odds of +115 (implied probability of 46.5%) represent a solid overlay.
THE PLAYS
Chicago Blackhawks at Calgary Flames – Flames -1.5 (+115)
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