There may be just two matches set to take place on Sunday in the Premier League, but each game features one of English football’s powerhouse clubs.
First, Arsenal will look to regain sole possession of first place in the league when they host Nottingham Forest; then, Manchester United will hope to extend their unbeaten streak when they take on West Ham United and former manager David Moyes.
In terms of betting, I’m more interested in the contest taking place at the Emirates.
Below you will find an overlay from the match between Arsenal and Nottingham Forest, with the odds supplied by PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
11-8-2 (57.1%), +6.61 units
ARSENAL v. NOTTHINGHAM FOREST – TO WIN TO NIL – Arsenal (-121)
The assessment for this game is straightforward: Arsenal have been solid at home and Nottingham Forest have been dreadful on the road this season.
With Manchester City’s 1-0 win over Leicester on Saturday, the Gunners sit one point off the lead entering Sunday’s match, and they’ll surely be expected to move back to the top of the table given their competition.
Although Mikel Arteta‘s side haven’t been dominant when playing at the Emirates, they’ve won their seven home matches in all competitions by a combined score of 18-7.
Led by their young nucleus of Saka, Martinelli, Odegaard, SaliBa, and Jesus, Arsenal has the look of a club that’s a real threat to upend Manchester City for the Premier League title this season.
If they’re to truly be contenders for the Premier League title, however, they must take care of business against inferior opponents like Nottingham Forest – and do so in dominating fashion.
Forest has done a better job recently of limiting their opponent’s scoring chances, allowing just two goals over the course of their last four matches.
The issue for Steve Cooper’s squad is primarily: a) creating scoring chances and b) lack of possession.
It’s not terribly surprising that a recently promoted team lacks the quality forwards and midfielders necessary to be contenders in England’s topflight, but without players that can finish with more regularity Forest will often find themselves fighting for a single point – never mind all three in any given match.
The lack of possession will be the real undoing for Forest on Sunday, though.
Arsenal is, unsurprisingly, among the best in the Premier League in terms of possessing the football, owning control 56.6% of the time overall.
Nottingham Forest, on the other hand, are the second worst team in terms of possession, controlling the ball just 41.1% of the time.
The Gunners’ numbers improve to 57.4% possession when playing at home in league play, while Forest’s numbers drop to 39.5% when playing on the road within the Premier League.
This is a longwinded way of suggesting that Arsenal should take care of business easily on Sunday, with my expectation being the Gunners winning via clean sheet.
My numbers suggest Arteta and company win in shutout fashion 59.2% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -145.
When compared to the -121 (implied probability of 54.8%) offered at PointsBet, it becomes clear that this is a wager worth exploring.
