TOP SPOT AT STAKE
Atletico Madrid face an uphill climb in their quest to unseat Juventus for top spot in Group D as they face off Tuesday in UEFA Champions League qualifying. Atletico (+280) enter the week three points back of the group leaders, and face the unenviable task of traveling to Allianz Stadium for a date with the Serie A leaders.
Juventus (+110) have won each of their previous four league games and have not dropped a home contest in any competition so far this season. That’s a major reason why they’re hefty -600 favorites to clinch top spot in Group D, while Atletico are installed at +400 to overtake Juventus for first place.
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THIS COULD GET MESSY
Atalanta are down, but surprisingly not out as they look to keep their flickering elimination round hopes alive Tuesday against visiting Dinamo Zagreb. Despite having earned just one point from their first four Champions League contests, Atalanta (-182) remain in play for a top-two berth – but they’ll need to win their final two games, beginning with this week’s showdown vs. third-place Dinamo Zagreb (+450).
The visitors are in a much better position heading into this one; a win would likely earn them sole possession of second place, with current No. 2 Shakhtar Donetsk facing group leaders Manchester City on Tuesday.
H IS FOR HOLY MOLY
It might be last alphabetically in the Champions League pecking order, but Group H is No. 1 when it comes to drama heading into the final two games of the double-round-robin qualifying format. Three teams are tied with identical records – and two of them will square off Wednesday as Valencia entertain Chelsea.
A win would put either team into the driver’s seat, with the losing team all but ruled out from elimination-round contention – and while Valencia (+230) have the home-field edge, they’re slight underdogs to Chelsea (+110) despite upsetting the Blues 1-0 at Stamford Bridge in their previous meeting.
EASIER PATH TO THE TOP
RB Leipzig can sew up top spot in Group G with a win and some help Wednesday – and if the chips fall according to the odds, they’ll do just that. Leipzig own a two-point advantage over Lyon in the battle for top spot, but are strong -200 favorites to pick up three points against a visiting Benfica side (+550) that sits last in the group through four games and dropped a 2-1 home decision to Leipzig in their first group stage encounter.
Lyon has it much tougher this week, coming in at +190 vs. a Zenit St. Petersburg team (+130) that sits three points out of second place and can still advance to the elimination round.
BETTING TRENDS
• Real Madrid and Paris Saint-Germain square off Tuesday in one of the marquee matchups on this week’s Champions League schedule – and these teams know how to fill the net against one another, having exceeded the 2.5-goal threshold in each of their past four encounters. Bettors might want to consider the O3.5 play here at a tidy +130.
• Bayer Leverkusen haven’t traveled well in recent weeks – and that could work to Lokomotiv Moscow’s advantage as the Russian-based club hosts their latest encounter Wednesday. Bayer have been blanked in four of their previous six away matches – and while they’re favored vs. Lokomotiv, that only makes the home team a better profit play at +333 to record a clean sheet.
• Bayern Munich will be looking to put some goals on the board as they visit Red Star Belgrade on Tuesday. The Group B leaders have yet to drop a game in the double round-robin and have already racked up 15 goals in four matches, three of which came in their previous meeting with Red Star Belgrade. At -125 to score 3+ in the rematch, Bayern Munich are a strong play.
• Harry Kane is a heavy favorite to score in Tottenham’s Tuesday Champoins League showdown with visiting Olympiacos, but there’s another Spurs player who could make for a terrific value play. Son Heung-Min leads the club and ranks third in the tournament with five goals, and should see plenty of scoring chances here; he’s a savvy choice at -110 to score anytime.
• The top Over option on this week’s Champions League might be found at Mestalla Stadium, as Valencia tangle with Chelsea. The Blues come in having seen the second-most total goals scored of any English Premier League team (47), while Valencia has seen 40 total goals in its 14 domestic matches. The O3.5 is in play Wednesday at +162.
• It has been a strange Champions League tournament for both Barcelona and Borussia Dortmund, who face off Wednesday. While they sit 1-2 in the Group F standings, they’ve combined for just nine goals in their first four games and settled for a scoreless draw in their earlier meeting. The U2.5 looks like a sneaky good play for the rematch at +175.
• Four has been a magic number for Ajax as they prepare for a Wednesday Champions League encounter with Lille. Ajax have scored four goals in each of the previous five games – including their previous tournament match, a wild 4-4 draw with Chelsea. With playoff hopes still very much alive, we recommend taking the visitors O2.5 at a generous +200.
• Liverpool have played plenty of tightly-contested games in recent weeks as they look to remain unbeaten in Champions League play Wednesday vs. visiting Napoli. The defending tournament champions have seen just two of their past 11 games decided by more than one goal, with nine wins and two draws in that span. The tie on the Napoli +1 handicap is a strong option at +200.
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