The French Open is into the Fourth Round, and the action is just beginning to heat up at Roland Garros. With the action getting underway early on Sunday, let’s go through some bets to make to start your day off right.
Cristian Garin (+190) vs. Daniil Medvedev (-250) Total: 37.5 Games
Through three rounds, it hasn’t been fun fading Daniil Medvedev — who entered the week without a win in his career at Roland Garros — but that should all change on Sunday. The Russian deserves a lot of credit for the strides he’s made on a clay court, but you have to look at the competition.
Alexander Bublik played short points and didn’t ask any questions of Medvedev’s ground game. Tommy Paul won the opening set off of the Russian but hit a wall after a long, grueling first-round match, allowing the Russian a free pass back into the match. Reilly Opelka struggled with subpar serving conditions and his first serve was easily returnable, forcing him into rallies, where we all know he isn’t comfortable.
Garin should prove to be a tall, tall task for Medvedev, and I think he should be favored in this match. As one of the most skilled clay court players in the world, the Chilean resides in the top 25 and has done nothing but dominate on this surface since he broke out back in 2014. Still just 25, his big run at a huge clay court tournament is imminent, and it could come here.
We also have the blueprint for this matchup after what happened just a month ago to date in Madrid. Garin’s clay court prowess and relentlessness was simply too much for the Russian, who fought back admirably in the second but was clearly not the best player on the court. Garin played one of the greatest matches I’ve ever seen him play, and I expect that same sort of attitude here with so much at stake for the young stud.
His variety and genius point construction should out-class Medvedev, who still is figuring out how to win clay court matches. Sell the World No. 2 at this ridiculous price.
Edge: Garin +190
Alejandro Davidovich-Fokina (+110) vs. Federico Delbonis (-140) Total: 37.5 Games
It is with a heavy heart that I fade, for my money, the most exciting player in tennis. In a vacuum, I’d make this match close to a pick ‘em, and I might even favor the young Spaniard. The problem is that his gas tank was absolutely emptied in his third-round win over the indomitable Casper Ruud, and I don’t think he’ll have anything left here.
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What’s more, Delbonis’ innate ability to drive the ball down the lines should overpower Fokina, who likes to settle in and get comfortable in rallies. The Argentine, when in form, is absolutely relentless in whipping that backhand deep into the court, and I think he’ll force a ton of errors here off the racquet of the Spaniard.
I’ve long thought an in-form Delbonis was one of the most dangerous clay court players in the world, and his peak ranking of 33 would back that up. Well, no one has won more matches on clay this year than the Argentine, who now stands at 25-9. He’s been grinding away in smaller tournaments all spring in preparation for a big run, and I think this could be it. Delbonis knows his days are probably numbered with Stefanos Tsitsipas looming next, so he might just go all out here and lay it on Davidovich-Fokina.
Edge: Delbonis -140
