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ATP Tour action continues this week with a couple of hard court tournaments: the Sofia Open and the San Diego Open. The favorites have already earned their BYEs and now it is time to see if the notables will finish on top or if there are indicators to suggest a darkhorse can surprise.
Here’s where you can find betting value:
Denis Shapovalov (-170) vs Taylor Fritz (+132)
No matter how many sets the match may go, expect it to be quick. In the last year on hard courts, Shapovalov ranks 11th in first-serve points won at 78.1%. At the U.S. Open, the Canadian had one match where he won 85% of first-serve points. If his serve is working to the wide section of the court, watch out. It’s there that he’s won more than 80% of his points.
This skill may be the biggest area of concern for Taylor Fritz. His first-serve percentage points won is 24.7%, which ranks outside the top 75 on tour. Especially if Shapovalov attacks the wide parts of the court, handling those returns may be a tough ask.
EDGE: Shapovalov -2.5 games (-105)
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Gael Monfils (-109) vs Ilya Ivashka (-120)
Even though Monfils is the two-seed at the Sofia Open, it’s Ivashka who is the favorite. Ivashka expended little effort breaking his first-round opponent four times and winning in straight sets, while Monfils hasn’t played yet. There may be two overarching reasons why Monfils isn’t the underdog. First, he’s 35-years-old, so the betting public may be concerned at some point he might slow down suddenly. Second, the two played each other in Tokyo at the Olympics, with Ivashka winning in three sets.
But, in that match, Ivashka netted two early aces and saved two break points to win the first set. He also never double faulted, which, given his performance on this surface over the last year, suggests he came with one of his better games. It may not be an indicator of consistency, though. Monfils has a slightly better ATP Return Rating (145.2 vs 144.2) and just came off a semifinal appearance in France. Monfils should advance, but not without a fight.
EDGE: Monfils (-109)
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