The first College Football Playoff rankings of 2023 slotted Notre Dame (7-2) at No. 15 on Tuesday, behind only LSU among two-loss teams. The ranking confirmed what was already rather clear: If the Irish win out, they will reach a New Year’s Six bowl.
Of those eight openings outside of the Playoff semifinals, five of them have no constraints on who can fill them. Which is to say, if Notre Dame finishes the season ranked at No. 9 or higher, it is guaranteed a New Year’s Six appearance.
If a a single non-Playoff bound Big Ten or SEC team is ahead of the Irish, then finishing No. 10 would also suffice. The same can be said of a non-Playoff bound ACC team, making even No. 11 viable for this blue-and-gold want.
Cracking the top 10 is the likely necessity, and that may seem a far cry from No. 15, but realize …
No. 14 LSU faces No. 8 Alabama this weekend, the Tigers as 3-point underdogs, and would be an underdog to No. 2 Georgia in the SEC title game.No. 13 Louisville has a trip to Miami on Nov. 18 and would be an underdog to No. 4 Florida State in the ACC title game.No. 12 Missouri heads to Georgia this week, the Tigers as 15.5-point underdogs, and hosts No. 17 Tennessee next week.No. 11 Penn State hosts No. 3 Michigan on Nov. 11.No. 10 Mississippi heads to Georgia next week.No. 9 Oklahoma would be an underdog to No. 7 Texas if they were to face each other again in the Big 12 title game.No. 8 Alabama would be an underdog to Georgia in the SEC title game.
And beyond all those moments being underdogs, there would be more than a handful of chances at slight upsets — Oklahoma heading to Oklahoma State and Texas hosting Kansas State this weekend, both the Big 12 bluebloods favorites of less than a touchdown, as immediate examples.
Notre Dame does not need chaos to rise into the top 10. It needs time, and it needs to win.
Could some of those teams lose and remain ahead of the Irish? Quite possibly. If Nick Saban returned the favor of a last-second two-point conversion to beat Brian Kelly, it would be understandable to keep the Tigers exactly where they are; if Kelly repeated his Bayou debut season-defining upset, the Tide might not fall far.
But Notre Dame will not have the same margin for error. If the Irish suffer a third loss — the highest ranked three-loss team is currently … not ranked — they will fall out of New Year’s Six contention.
That is in part because the remaining quarter of Notre Dame’s schedule will not impress the selection committee, not for better or for worse. Before some quick notes on Clemson, Wake Forest and Stanford, one more note about possible New Year’s Six bowls: Unless the Irish finish ranked higher than every non-Playoff SEC and Big Ten team (eight total are currently at No. 14 or better) to reach the Orange Bowl on Dec. 30 at 4 ET, their New Year’s Six destination will be entirely up to the committee’s attempts to create compelling games in late December and on New Year’s Day:
Cotton Bowl in Dallas: Dec. 29 at 8 ET.Peach Bowl in Atlanta: Dec. 30 at 12 ET.Fiesta Bowl in Phoenix: Jan. 1 at 1 ET.
Lift, but make it Halloween 🎃#GoIrish☘️ pic.twitter.com/PYC3cFSWcc
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) October 31, 2023
Clemson (4-4): Advanced metrics still recognize Clemson’s threat. First of all, it is a talented roster, even if one operating voluntarily at a deficit given head coach Dabo Swinney’s refusal to tap the transfer market. Past recruiting rankings impact present thoughts.
But in-season aspects have also kept the Tigers high in those numbers. Clemson’s defense ranks No. 17 in the country in raw expected points added per snap, particularly strong against the pass.
The Tigers’ offense, however, continues to struggle. And this week, Swinney pointed toward its looseness with the ball as the primary reason.
Dabo Swinney asked to elaborate on what's gone wrong for Clemson this season.
— Jon Blau (@Jon_Blau) October 31, 2023
"No. 1, we are last in the nation in fumble, No. 2, we’re last in the nation in fumbles, and No. 3, we’re last in the nation in fumbles. Yet we have an overtime loss, a double-overtime loss."
Advanced metrics generally ignore turnovers, considering them mostly luck, too small a sample size to be factored into predictive measures. But at some point, they should be included.
Swinney’s claims are exaggerated, but the spirit of his point is valid: Clemson fumbles more than all but a few other teams. The thing is, the Tigers have not been unlucky.
Of 25 loose balls against FBS opponents, 14 fumbled by Clemson and 11 fumbled by opponents, the Tigers have recovered 13 of them. In a game with an oblong ball, that is more lucky than unlucky.
Clemson has been poor with the timing of its mistakes, fumbling three times on goal-to-go situations, but even if two of those three drives were turned into touchdowns, the Tigers would have converted 24 of 41 red-zone trips into touchdowns, 58.5 percent, which would rank just No. 77 in the country.
Of note: Notre Dame’s defense ranks No. 5 in the country in opponent red-zone touchdown conversions, giving up just nine touchdowns on 25 trips, 36 percent.
Arguably even more predictive, when one player is responsible for a bulk of your fumbles. Eight of Clemson’s 14 fumbles against FBS opponents came from quarterback Cade Klubnik, losing four of them.
Most power ratings ignore those tendencies, but they are predictive in their own rights and worth keeping in mind when the Tigers face Notre Dame at 12 ET on ABC on Saturday; Clemson is a three-point underdog with a combined point total Over/Under of 45, suggesting a 24-21 result.
Some more Clemson stats that may (not) reflect on the offensive line. If it's not the OL, it's the scheme or the QB or, you get the point ...
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 31, 2023
Clemson's last five games: 13 sacks allowed, losing 112 yards, part of 40 TFLs allowed, losing 181 yards.
4.3 yards per carry, sks adj. https://t.co/BuiQFTyDZS
Wake Forest (4-4): The Demon Deacons have a vaguely similar problem, ranking third from the bottom in sacks allowed per game at 4.6 and last in the country in tackles for loss allowed per game, nearly nine.
Facing Duke’s underrated defensive line on Thursday at 7:30 ET on ESPN will once again expose that, particularly if Mitch Griffis is behind center, having turned 34.2 percent of his pressures into sacks, another predictive failing.
That alone could sow doubt in Wake Forest covering as a 12.5-point underdog.
For further thoughts on that ACC matchup on Thursday, enjoy the two minutes of the below video, beginning at the 34:29 mark.
Stanford (2-6): Just about every thought of those Clemson and Wake Forest weaknesses applies to the Cardinal. And that sentence was typed without even checking stats to confirm. To rattle through them …
Raw defensive EPA: No. 130 in the country.Fumbles: Stanford has fumbled 11 times, not a great number. But it has lost only three of those. In other words, the Cardinal has been lucky with the bouncing oblong ball, especially since it has recovered the only fumble it forced. Stanford has been fortunate to have the ball bounce its way nine out of 12 times.
Red-zone touchdown percentage: No. 86 in the country, turning 25 red-zone possessions into 14 touchdowns, 56 percent.
Sacks allowed: No. 119 in the country, 3.5 per game.Tackles for loss allowed: No. 118 in the country, 7.5 per game.
Washington State may not be ideally designed to capitalize on those flaws, yet the Cougars are favored by 13 points (Pac 12 Network at 9 ET).
ND defense is 12th in points per drive. Next 3 offenses they face in points per drive: Clemson 91st, Wake Forest 118th, and Stanford 78th
— Jamie Uyeyama (@jamieuyeyama) October 30, 2023