The new knockout-style format kept everyone guessing, just as NASCAR wanted. At various points of the race, every driver in Chase contention was below the elimination bubble in terms of points and the field was not determined until the final corner of the final lap.
Jeff Gordon started the white flag lap tied in points with Ryan Newman and would have earned the position based on the tiebreaker, but he would end the race on the outside looking in. To a man, drivers will tell you they would wreck their grandmother to win a championship. Not being any relation to Newman whatsoever, Kyle Larson never had a chance. When he gave up the inside line, the No. 31 body slammed his No. 42 out of the groove. Point taken.
The Chase has been filled with surprises, not the least of which was the overall lack of performance by Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt Jr., and Kasey Kahne who were eliminated in round two. Perhaps even more surprising is the fact that Johnson currently sits 32 points out of the top 10 with three drivers to leapfrog, and this will be the first time in his career that he finished outside of that mark. His worst points’ performance prior to this season was a sixth in 2011.
The Chase also featured some clutch performances. Brad Keselowski was in a must-win situation entering the Geico 500 at Talladega and he stormed to Victory Lane in that elimination race. Kevin Harvick was in the same condition last week and dominated the Quicken Loans Race for Heroes 500k en route to a sweep of Phoenix International Raceway.
It remains to be seen if a driver with a superior overall record will win the Sprint Cup, but one thing is certain: NASCAR will crown a new champion. Harvick, Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Newman are each seeking their first trophy.
It should also be noted that last week’s Chasing Phoenix article correctly predicted three of the top four. Newman’s last lap episode and Keselowski’s inability to get higher in the points spoiled its perfect record.
Joey Logano (5 wins / 5,000 points)Chase Outlook: first
Last week’s outlook: first
Logano has been the top-ranked driver in this article for several weeks and there is no reason to demote him now. He won races in both the Challenger and Contender rounds and has not finished worse than 12th in the nine races leading up to the Ford EcoBoost 400. He may be living on borrowed time, but the odds are good he will put one more week in the bank.Logano has not been great at Homestead in the past, but his career records mean as little now as they did to teammate Keselowski when he won the 2012 championship. Logano earned his first Homestead top-10 last year with an eighth. His lack of experience could hurt him, but that should be counterbalanced by momentum and youthful exuberance. After all, no one would have predicted we would have a teenage champion in the Nationwide series at the start of this season either.
Kevin Harvick (4 wins / 5,000 points)Chase Outlook: second
Last week’s outlook: second
There is an old adage in NASCAR that a driver has to lose a championship before he can win one. Harvick finished third in the points in three of the last four seasons and he has the experience to overcome any weaknesses he has shown during 2014. Forgotten for the moment are the countless mistakes by driver and crew that cost him so many victories this year and the team simply needs one more flawless race.Harvick has a much better record overall than Logano at Homestead. Since this track was repaved and reconfigured in 2003, he has finished outside the top 10 only once and has a pair of runner-up finishes to recommend him. However, his last three attempts have been in the same range as Logano’s 2013 effort and that will level the playing field.
Denny Hamlin (1 win / 5,000 points)Chase Outlook: third
Last week’s outlook: third
Hamlin’s only victory this season came in a lottery-style race on the restrictor-plate, superspeedway of Talladega. That would hardly give him the overall strength needed to contend with two challengers that have nine wins between them, but Hamlin peaked at the right time. He narrowly advanced from the Challenger round with an average finish of 18.3, but earned back-to-back top-10s at the beginning of the Contender round. He slipped at Talladega in their fall event, but had enough points to advance to the Elimin8tor where he recorded an average result of 7.7.There is also the little matter of Hamlin’s victory at Homestead last year to make him an attractive choice this week. That was his second win on this track, but it was the first time since 2009 that he finished among the top five. He might not need to win this race, but Hamlin will certainly need to challenge for the victory and that seems like a longshot.
Ryan Newman (0 wins / 5,000 points)Chase Outlook: fourth
Last week’s outlook: sixth
A driver has to be a part of the Final Four in order to have a chance to win the Cup and Newman proved he would do what it takes to make that happen. Newman has been one of the most consistent drivers in the field since his crash at Watkins Glen, but he has rarely shown top-five strength. In his last 13 attempts he has finished that well only twice and one of those came at Talladega. It is likely that last week’s bonzai move in turn four to finish 11th will be a pyrrhic victory that costs him in the long run.Along with Hamlin, Newman is the only other current Chaser with a top-five at Homestead in the past three years, but his third from 2012 is surrounded by two sub-10th-place results. Newman will almost certainly finish among the top 15, but that will not be enough to win a championship.
Three-year averages (sorted by All Remaining Chase tracks’ average) | ||
Driver | Chase So Far | Homestead |
8.78 | 8.67 | |
9.78 | 10.67 | |
12.44 | 11.33 | |
5.33 | 13.67 | |
|
|
|
Jeff Gordon (eliminated round 3) | 11.56 | 5.67 |
Matt Kenseth (eliminated round 3) | 11.56 | 8.00 |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (eliminated round 2) | 15.78 | 8.00 |
Carl Edwards (eliminated round 3) | 14.00 | 8.67 |
Kyle Busch (eliminated round 2) | 13.56 | 11.33 |
Aric Almirola (eliminated round 1) | 25.56 | 11.50 |
Brad Keselowski (eliminated round 3) | 11.22 | 13.67 |
Kasey Kahne (eliminated round 2) | 22.11 | 13.67 |
Greg Biffle (eliminated round 1) | 17.00 | 21.33 |
Kurt Busch (eliminated round 1) | 19.22 | 21.33 |
AJ Allmendinger (eliminated round 1) | 15.89 | 25.50 |
Jimmie Johnson (eliminated round 2) | 19.22 | 25.67 |
