Chasing Atlanta

The season always begins with an interesting looking top 16.

AJ Allmendinger, Aric Almirola, Trevor Bayne, and Matt DiBenedetto hope they will be able to remain with the leaders and with the current points’ system anything is certainly possible.

But, if they do, that means Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Martin Truex Jr., and Jimmie Johnson are going to have some obstacles to overcome.

Regular Season Races Remaining: 25 (Maximum points per race = 65)

Unique Winners in 2017: 1

Eligible on Wins

Kurt Busch (1 win / 0 Stage Wins / 56 points)
Power Ranking: 10
Points’ Standings: 1
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 8.50
Las Vegas: 17.50
Phoenix: 11.50

It doesn’t matter how a driver gets to the front so long as he is there when the checkers wave. Busch watched three strong competitors run out of gas at Daytona in the final stages and now he does not have to worry about the remainder of the regular season. He can go flat out for victories.

Eligible on Points

Kevin Harvick (0 wins / 1 Stage Win / 42 points)
Power Ranking: 1
Points’ Standings: 4
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 9.00
Las Vegas: 16.33
Phoenix: 1.67

Harvick was biggest beneficiary of the new points’ system. He won stage two of the Daytona 500 and finished second in stage one; those nine extra points kept him from suffering the fate of several other strong competitors and actually helped him land fourth in the standings.

Joey Logano (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 43 points)
Power Ranking: 3
Points’ Standings: 3
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 10.00
Las Vegas: 5.33
Phoenix: 6.67

Logano arguably had the best car last week at Daytona, but he did not get to the finish line first. The odds are good that will happen soon, however, because he has a 10th-place-or-better average finish on each of the next three tracks.

Brad Keselowski (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 31 points)
Power Ranking: 6
Points’ Standings: 12
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 19.00
Las Vegas: 3.00
Phoenix: 10.83

It is difficult to make very many broad assessments from a single plate race, but Keselowski did not appear to have quite as much strength as Logano last week. Perhaps that was because of a contract extension announced for the No. 22; Kez’s will reportedly come in the next few weeks.

Denny Hamlin (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 33 points)
Power Ranking: 7
Points’ Standings: 9
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 19.00
Las Vegas: 12.00
Phoenix: 10.83

Hamlin got off to a relatively slow start in 2016. The good news this year is that several of his principal competitors suffered a worse fate at Daytona than him and that will give the No. 11 team some breathing room. Hamlin needs to be fast on the next two similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks to keep his advantage.

Chase Elliott (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 33 points)
Power Ranking: 9
Points’ Standings: 8
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 8.00
Las Vegas: 38.00
Phoenix: 8.50

Elliott was seriously disappointed when he ran out of gas in in the final laps of the Daytona 500 and left the track without addressing the media. In order to contend for a championship, he is going to have to deal with stress better than that.

Kyle Larson (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 36 points)
Power Ranking: 12
Points’ Standings: 7
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 20.00
Las Vegas: 20.33
Phoenix: 13.17

We predicted that it would be the year of the Young Guns and while it is too soon to say that is coming true, it is notable nonetheless that both Larson and Elliott had a chance to win NASCAR’s “Superbowl.” These two have some serious battles at the front of the pack ahead of them.

Austin Dillon (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 25 points)
Power Ranking: 13
Points’ Standings: 16
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 24.67
Las Vegas: 13.67
Phoenix: 24.17

Dillon’s streak of top-10 finishes on restrictor-plate, superspeedways came to a close last week when he ran out of gas. He is the low man on the points’ totem pole and the most likely to get picked off by the marquee drivers below him in the standings given his modest averages on the next three tracks.

Kasey Kahne (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 30 points)
Power Ranking: 14
Points’ Standings: 13
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 12.67
Las Vegas: 11.67
Phoenix: 16.17

Racing is a zero-sum game. For one driver to advance, another has to fall back in the field. That formula worked in Kahne’s favor this week, but it is unlikely he will stay ahead of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Johnson in the standings.

Ryan Blaney (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 44 points)
Power Ranking: 15
Points’ Standings: 2
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 25.00
Las Vegas: 12.50
Phoenix: 9.00

Blaney has a 20-point cushion over 17th in the standings and that gives him a little breathing room. He was solid on similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks last year, but struggled at Atlanta Motor Speedway. He should be able to challenge for another top-10 this week, however, and maintain his position.

AJ Allmendinger (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 39 points)
Power Ranking: 18
Points’ Standings: 5
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 24.67
Las Vegas: 12.67
Phoenix: 19.50

Early indications suggest that increasing to a two-car operation in 2017 is going to pay dividends for Allmendinger and Chris Buescher. The more-veteran of the two, ‘Dinger is most likely to reap the benefits and stay in contact with the top-16.

Paul Menard (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 32 points)
Power Ranking: 19
Points’ Standings: 10
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 16.33
Las Vegas: 10.00
Phoenix: 20.17

Menard is another fresh face in the top 16, but he was playoff relevant a few times last year as well. If he can get out of Atlanta with a top-15 and challenge for a top-10 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, he is going to remain front-of-mind for fantasy players.

Trevor Bayne (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 32 points)
Power Ranking: 22
Points’ Standings: 11
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 20.50
Las Vegas: 21.67
Phoenix: 28.25

While expanding to two cars benefited JTG-Daugherty, retrenching to two may well have helped Roush-Fenway Racing at Daytona. These two teams have an alliance that effectively gives them four sets of notes from which to work, but each will chose their own fate.

Aric Almirola (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 37 points)
Power Ranking: 23
Points’ Standings: 6
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 11.67
Las Vegas: 25.00
Phoenix: 16.17

Almirola and Richard Petty Motorsports also underwent some major changes during the off-season. When Brian Scott decided to retire, the organization knew that was a good time to concentrate on their current opportunity.

Matt DiBenedetto (0 wins / 0 Stage Wins / 28 points)
Power Ranking: 30
Points’ Standings: 15
Next three tracks, 3-year average finish
Atlanta: 36.50
Las Vegas: 37.50
Phoenix: 27.00

No one really expects DiBenedetto to remain in the top 16, but his strong Daytona run should make an impression. Teams like the GoFas Racing No. 32, BK Racing’s operation, and that of Front Row Motorsports are going to challenge for their share of top-25s this season and that might just help win one’s league.

Three-Year Average Finish, Next Three Tacks
Power Ranking	Top 16	Driver	Wins	Stage Wins	Power Avg.	|	Atlanta	Las Vegas	Phoenix
Eligible on Wins
10	1	Kurt Busch	1		12.29	|	8.50	17.50	11.50
Eligible on Points
1	4	Kevin Harvick		1	6.67	|	9.00	16.33	1.67
3	3	Joey Logano			7.79	|	10.00	5.33	6.67
6	12	Brad Keselowski			8.68	|	19.00	3.00	10.83
7	9	Denny Hamlin			9.19	|	19.00	12.00	10.83
9	8	Chase Elliott			11.14	|	8.00	38.00	8.50
12	7	Kyle Larson			13.44	|	20.00	20.33	13.17
13	16	Austin Dillon			15.77	|	24.67	13.67	24.17
14	13	Kasey Kahne			17.31	|	12.67	11.67	16.17
15	2	Ryan Blaney			17.34	|	25.00	12.50	9.00
18	5	AJ Allmendinger			20.29	|	24.67	12.67	19.50
19	10	Paul Menard			21.93	|	16.33	10.00	20.17
22	11	Trevor Bayne			24.49	|	20.50	21.67	28.25
23	6	Aric Almirola			26.02	|	11.67	25.00	16.17
30	15	Matt DiBenedetto			32.71	|	36.50	37.50	27.00
Drivers Outside the Top-16 in Points
2		Kyle Busch			7.03	|	9.50	7.50	10.60
4		Martin Truex Jr.			8.17	|	12.00	9.00	18.17
5		Matt Kenseth			8.63	|	8.67	18.67	11.80
8		Jimmie Johnson			9.45	|	2.00	16.67	18.33
11		Dale Earnhardt Jr.			13.36	|	5.33	4.67	11.80
16		Jamie McMurray			17.89	|	24.33	14.00	11.33
17		Ryan Newman			18.43	|	13.67	7.67	13.83
20		Ricky Stenhouse Jr.			22.08	|	22.00	22.67	24.67
21		Ty Dillon			23.62	|	21.00	NA	21.00
24		Danica Patrick			26.69	|	14.00	23.00	24.67
25		Clint Bowyer			28.68	|	32.33	22.00	25.83
26		Michael McDowell			29.18	|	34.67	34.00	31.00
27		Chris Buescher			30.02	|	28.00	26.00	31.00
28		Landon Cassill			30.07	|	36.67	36.00	29.33
29		David Ragan			30.87	|	25.67	28.67	24.50
31		Cole Whitt			34.47	|	34.67	35.67	32.60
32		Jeffrey Earnhardt			37.38	|	38.00	33.00	33.00
33		Timmy Hill			37.86	|	NA	38.00	43.00
34		Reed Sorenson			37.97	|	36.50	39.00	31.67
35		Gray Gaulding			39.00	|	NA	NA	37.00

A note about the three-year stats: The three-year average finish is a script that looks at the last 1,116 days—to provide for minor changes in the schedule. Since some races shift dates more than a week or two, the past three years occasionally contain five races instead of six. It is a consistent snapshot, however.

A note about the Power Average: The Fantasy Power Rankings formula includes finishing results this season as well as various “strength-based” intangibles such as Laps in the top five, 10, and 15, average running position, speed in traffic, and quality passes (passing a car while in the top 15) expressed as if they were finishing results. The lower the number, the stronger the driver.